SMU Mustangs vs UCF Knights 10/06/2022 NCAAF Odds and Prediction

The Southern Methodist University Mustangs hit the road and travel to Florida where they will take on the University of Central Florida Knights on Thursday night at the FBC Mortgage Stadium.

SMU is 2-2 SU on the season and is 4th in the current American standings. After opening the season with blowout wins over North Texas and Lamar, the Mustangs have dropped their last two contests by an average losing margin of 7.5 points per game. In their most recent appearance, the Mustangs were beaten by TCU 42-34.

Meanwhile, UCF is 3-1 SU on the season and they are also 4th in the latest American standing with a 3-1 SU mark. The Knights blew out SC State in Week 1 but lost to Louisville 20-14. They have since won two in a row, defeating FAU 40-14 and Georgia Tech 27-10.

SMU Mustangs

SMU opened the season with back-to-back wins against smaller programs. However, they have lost consecutive games to a pair of respectable programs. Despite those losses, the Knights kept themselves close in both games, losing by single digits.

The defense was their issue in those games as they allowed 478 yards to TCU and 439 to Maryland. The offense has looked great, putting up 472 yards versus TCU and 520 yards against Maryland. Senior quarterback Tanner Mordecai has thrown for over 300 yards in three of four games played this season. He has thrown 12 TD passes and only 5 INTs for the Mustangs this season.

Morcadai has 1,385 passing yards on the season with a QBR of 70.5. Tre Siggers leads the Mustangs with 200 rushing yards on 50 carries with 4 rushing TDs while Rashee Rice has 34 catches for 565 yards with 4 TD grabs.

UCF Knights

UCF is 3-1 SU this season but their wins have come against 1-3 Georgia Tech, South Carolina State, and FAU. Louisville is the only good team that they played against and they lost that game 20-14. Although they allowed only 20 points against the Cardinals, Louisville amassed 420 yards against UCF. Meanwhile, the Knights averaged just 3.9 yards per pass during their game against Louisville.

UCF starting quarterback senior John Rhys Plumlee has struggled even against mediocre or bad defense this season. Plumlee averaged just 3.1 yards per pass against Georgia Tech and 3.9 yards per pass against Louisville. However, he played well against weak programs in FAU and South Carolina and they are lucky to be 3-1 on the year.

Plumlee leads the team with 827 passing yards with 5 TD passes. He is also the team leader in rushing with 404 on 69 carries with four rushing TDs. Meanwhile, Javon Baker has caught 18 passes for 257 yards and 2 TD grabs.

Who Wins?

The Mustangs are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played against the Knight. SMU is also 0-5 SU in their last five games played in Central Florida.

SMU Mustangs SU trends:

• Mustangs are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games played.

• Mustangs are 1-4 SU in their last five games played on the road.

• Mustangs are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against the AAC.

• Mustangs are 9-2 SU in their last 11 October games played.

UCF Knights SU trends:

• Knights are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played overall.

• Knights are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played at home.

• Knights are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games played against the West Division.

SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee believes that his team will benefit from the delay of this AAC opener. This game was supposed to be played last Saturday but was changed to Sunday in anticipation of Hurricane Ian. After the hurricane had ravaged Florida, it was once again moved to Wednesday.

Lashlee says the revised schedule is a “new season” that his team will look to take advantage of. The Mustangs head to this game coming off back-to-back losses to Maryland (34-27) and TCU (42-34) in their previous two assignments.

UCF’s only loss this season is a 20-14 setback against Louisville at home last September 9th. But even in defeat, the Knights had the opportunity to win that game but could not take advantage. After that setback, UCF won back-to-back games including a 27-10 win over Georgia Tech last September 24th, in a game where QB John Rhys Plumlee rushed for 100 yards and a TD to lead the Knights.

Both coaches know each other well. UFC mentor Gus Malzahn once coached high school football and Lashlee was one of his quarterbacks. Lashlee later joined Malzahn’s coaching staff at Springdale High School in Arkansas. He was also one of Malzahn’s assistants at Auburn and Arkansas State.

I always like the mentor over the pupil and in this case, the mentor’s team has plenty of advantages as well. UCF is playing at home where they have lost only once in their last 10 games played. The Mustangs should give this a good fight. However, the Knights will dictate the pace of the game with their running attack. The Mustangs’ defense has struggled to defend the run. That will cost them this game.

Prediction: UCF Knights

Mustangs vs Knights ATS Prediction

The favorite is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. The home team is 8-0-1 ATS in the last 9 games played between these two teams. The Mustangs are also 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games played in Central Florida.

SMU Mustangs ATS trends:

• The Mustangs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

• The Mustangs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.

• The Mustangs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

• The Mustangs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.

• The Mustangs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.

• The Mustangs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss.

• The Mustangs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.

• The Mustangs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

• The Mustangs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

• The Mustangs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

UCF Knights ATS trends:

• The Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games.

• The Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.

• The Knights are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

• The Knights are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

• The Knights are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 conference games.

• The Knights are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games against the American Athletic Conference.

• The Knights are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against the West Division.

• The Knights are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

• The Knights are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight-up win.

• The Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.

UCF is one of the best running teams in the nation. SMU’s inability to stop the run will be too much for them to overcome in this game. The Knights are also playing at home, where they have lost just once in their last 10 games played with their nine wins coming via winning margins of 4 points or more.

The Knights have outscored the Mustangs by an average margin of 11.5 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. Give me the home team to pick up the win and cover this reasonable spread.

Prediction: UFC Knights -3

Mustangs vs Knights Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in six out of the last 10 games played between these two teams. The over is 2-1 in their last three games played in Central Florida.

SMU Mustangs over/under trends:

• Under is 4-2 in the Mustangs’ last 6 games played overall.

• Under is 4-0 in the Mustangs’ last 4 road games.

• Over is 4-0 in the Mustangs’ last 4 games following a bye week.

• Over is 7-0 in the Mustangs’ last 7 games on grass.

• Under is 4-1 in the Mustangs’ last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

• Over is 4-1 in the Mustangs’ last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

• Under is 4-1 in the Mustangs’ last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

• Over is 7-2 in the Mustangs’ last 9 games following an ATS loss.

• Over is 36-16 in the Mustangs’ last 52 games following a straight-up loss.

• Over is 15-7 in the Mustangs’ last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

UCF Knights over/under trends:

• Under is 5-1 in th Knights’ last 6 games overall.

• Under is 6-2 in the Knights’ last 8 home games.

• Under is 4-0 in the Knights’ last 4 games following a straight-up win.

• Under is 5-1 in the Knights’ last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

• Under is 5-1 in the Knights’ last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

• Under is 5-1 in the Knights’ last 6 games on grass.

• Under is 4-1 in the Knights’ last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

• Under is 11-4 in the Knights’ last 15 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

• Over is 5-2 in the Knights’ last 7 games following a bye week.

• Over is 4-0 in the Knights’ last 4 Wednesday games.

• Over is 6-1 in the Knights’ last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

The Mustangs have put up decent numbers on the scoreboards this season. However, UFC should turn this into a low-scoring contest because of their solid running attack. With the Knights going to run the football, precious time will be consumed and there will be fewer chances for the Mustangs to put up a high-scoring offense.

With heavy winds expected on game day, the passing game could also be impacted here, forcing these teams to figure in a low-scoring affair. These teams have combined to score an average of 55.1 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. This one should be no different.

Prediction: Under 63.5

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