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The Southern Methodist University Mustangs play the Arkansas State Red Wolves at the Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, Arkansas on August 31, 2019.
The SMU Mustangs are coming off a 5-7 season in 2018 and a 4-4 record in the American Athletic Conference which left them in a disappointing 4th place in the West Division. Sonny Dykes hopes this year will bring them eligibility for a bowl game. With transfer quarterback Shane Buechele from Texas plus returning backs Xavier Jones and Ke’mon Freeman, this is going to be a fun year for the Mustangs. There’s plenty of talent plus another year of experience for both the offense and defense, hence the expectations are pretty high this season.
A total of six starters return for Arkansas State but they will have a new starting quarterback in Logan Bonner. With Kirk Merritt, Omar Bayless and Jonathan Adams, the Red Wolves have one of the best receiving group in the Sun Belt Conference. Likewise, lead running back Marcell Murray is returning to Arkansas State giving this team stability on offense. But while the offense looks solid, the Arkansas State defense is suspect and their secondary is weak which should put plenty of pressure on Bonner and the offense to produce the points to win games like this one.
Who Wins?
Southern Methodist is 0-5 SU in their last five games played in August and 3-11 SU in their last 14 week 1 games played. Arkansas State is 4-1 SU in their last five games played, 4-1 SU in their last five games played on a Saturday and 5-1 SU in their last six games as football betting favorites. Head to head, SMU is 2-1 SU in their three meetings.
SMU has plenty of work to do as an upstart team. Arkansas State has a new look with its new coordinators but even with the new faces, they have the talent to contend for the conference title if all goes well. SMU has won only two out of its last 22 road openers. I don’t think this one’s going to be any different. Prediction: Arkansas State
Other Bets To Make
SMU is 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games played, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games played on the road and 4-1 ATS in their last five games against an opponent from the Sun Belt Conference. Arkansas State is 4-1 ATS in their last five games played, 5-1 ATS in their last six games played in August and 9-3 ATS in their last dozen week 1 games played. Head to head, SMU is 3-0 ATS in their three meetings.
With the changes in Arkansas State, I expect some jitters early on and I don’t think this will be a blowout. However, I think that the Red Wolves are going to win this game by at least a field goal here. Prediction: Arkansas State -2/5
The total has gone under in five out of the last seven games played by SMU and the total has gone under in four out of their last six Saturday games. The total has gone under in each of the last five games played by Arkansas State, the under is 7-1 in their last eight home games and under in each of their last six games against American Athletic Conference opponents.
These teams combined for an average of 67 points per game in their last three meetings and combined to score 60 points per game last season. Sure, both teams will have new quarterbacks playing behind center but with their defenses suspect at this stage of the season, I think this is going to be a high-scoring game that breaches the 60-point total. Prediction: Over 58
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