San Antonio Spurs vs Denver Nuggets 04/05/2022 NBA Odds and Prediction

The San Antonio Spurs head to the Pepsi Center to take on the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday night.

San Antonio is looking to hold on to the 10th spot and get a chance to enter the playoff via the play-in tournament The Spurs are 33-45 SU on the season and they are a full two games ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers with the tiebreaker in their possession. They are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played and have won their last two games.

Denver is also trying to hold on to its current seeding. The Nuggets are 5th in the Western Conference at 47-32 SU and are just one-half game ahead of the 6th seeded Utah Jazz and two better than the 7th seeded Minnesota Timberwolves. Denver is 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played and they are coming off a win over the Lakers last Sunday, helping the Spurs keep the 10th seed.

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs picked up back-to-back blowout wins over the Portland Trail Blazers to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. San Antonio beat Portland by 21 points the last time out behind 28 points from Keldon Johnson and 18 points each from Zach Collins and Tre Jones. Keita Bates Diop also added 12 points off the San Antonio bench.

San Antonio ranks 8th in the NBA in scoring at 113.2 points per game this season. The Spurs are 8th in rebounding at 45.5 boards grabbed per contest and are the top-passing team in the NBA at 28.0 assists per game. They are just 24th in scoring defense at 113.0 points per game allowed.

What are the Moneyline Odds?

Spurs

+252

Nuggets

-274

Odds from BetOnline as of 04/05/2022

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets went to Los Angeles to put a huge blow on the Lakers’ playoff aspirations. Taking advantage of LeBron James’ absence, Nikola Jokic had another massive performance of 38 points, 18 rebounds, and 6 assists. Will Barton added 25 points and Aaron Gordon 25. DeMarcus Cousins also scored 14 points off the bench.

Denver is 10th in the league in scoring at 112.4 points per game this season. The Nuggets are 18th in rebounding at 44.0 boards pulled down per contest and third in passing at 27.3 assists per game. They have the NBA’s 4th best scoring defense at 109.9 points per game allowed.

Who Wins?

San Antonio is 6-1 SU in their last seven games played. The Spurs are 4-1 SU in their last five games played on the road, and 12-11 SU in 23 road games against Western Conference teams.

Denver is 4-1 SU in their last five games played. The Nuggets are 22-16 in 38 home games played this season, 14-9 SU in 23 home games against Western Conference rivals, and 13-7 SU in their last 20 games against the Southwest Division.

Head to head, the Nuggets are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played against the Spurs. Denver is also 7-0 SU in their last seven home games against San Antonio.

The Spurs are looking to get back in the playoffs after being absent in the previous two postseasons. But getting there isn’t going to be easy. First, they need to hold on to the 10th seed and then pick up two wins in the play-in tournament. That would likely mean beating the New Orleans Pelicans and LA Clippers to earn a first round series against the Phoenix Suns. Before those scenarios, however, they need to take care of business first.

Denver has beaten San Antonio twice in their first three meetings of the season. Look for the Spurs to give it a good fight but without someone who can contain Jokic, the Joker is headed for another monster game.

Prediction: Denver Nuggets

Other Bets to Make

The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last six games played overall. San Antonio is 5-0 ATS in their last five games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their previous game, 5-1 ATS in their last six games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 5-1 ATS in their last six games when scoring 100 or more points in their previous game, 4-1 ATS in their last five games after an ATS win, 4-1 ATS in their last five games after a straight up win, 4-1 in their last five games when playing on one-day rest, and 4-1 ATS in their last five games as betting underdogs.

The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games played overall. Denver is 2-6 ATS in their last eight games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as betting favorites, 1-4 ATS in their last five games after an ATS win, 1-4 ATS in their last five games after a straight up victory, 1-4 ATS in their last five games after a straight up win of more than 10 points, 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing on one day rest, 1-6 ATS in their last seven-game when scoring more than 125 points in their previous game, 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as home favorites, and 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games.

What are the Spread Odds?

Spurs

+7 (-110)

Nuggets

-7 (-110)

Odds from BetOnline as of 04/05/2022

The Spurs have a better cover rate (52%) than Denver (46%) this season and the Spurs have turned it on in the last couple of weeks as they have overtaken the L.A. Lakers for the 10th seed in the Western Conference.

San Antonio is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games played while covering four times with the betting spread at 9.5 points or higher. I don’t expect them to beat the Nuggets outright but I have no doubt they will keep this game close.

Denver has won four out of its last six games played but is just 2-4 ATS during that span. The Nuggets have an average margin of victory of 2.5 points per game this season and I’m not confident in them being able to cover a spread larger than five points against a San Antonio team that is still fighting to enter the playoffs.

I’m picking the Nuggets to win but It should be a closer game that is decided by five or fewer points.

Prediction: Spurs +7

The total has gone under in seven out of San Antonio’s last eight games after a win of more than 10 points. The under is 5-1 in their last six games played as betting underdogs, 7-2 in their last nine road games against an opponent with a winning home record, 16-5 in their last 21 games after an ATS win, 19-9-2 in their last 30 games as road underdogs, 5-2 in their last seven games after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game, and 5-1 in their last six games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their previous outing. The Spurs have hit the over just four times in their last 10 games played but two of those came in their last four games so this is a team that’s on a roll offensively right now.

The total has gone over in eight out of the last 10 games played by the Nuggets. The over is 3-0-1 in their last four games after a straight up win of more than 100 points, 6-1 in their last seven games against an opponent with a losing straight up record, 5-1 in their last six games after a straight up win, 8-2 in their last 10 games after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game, 8-2 in their last 10 games after their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 8-2 in their last 10 games as betting favorites, 8-3 in their last 11 Tuesday games, and 20-8-1 in their last 29 games after an ATS win.

Head to head, the total has gone over in six out of the last eight meetings between these two teams.

San Antonio’s offense has picked up this season with Dejounte Murray running the show at points guard. With Murray at the helm, the Spurs rank 4th in pace and are 8th in the league in scoring at 113.2 points per game this season. At the same time, San Antonio has the 8th worst scoring defense in the NBA at 113.0 points per game allowed.

Denver also owns a Top 10 scoring offense and the Nuggets are are good shooting team at 46% field goal shooting. With Jokic scoring over 35 points in each of his last three games and the Nuggets putting up more than 125 points in each of those games, this is a Denver team that can put up points on the board even without Muray and MPJ.

These teams combined for 239 and 234 points in their last two outings. This one shouldn’t be any different. Give me the over.

Prediction: Over 235.5

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