San Antonio Spurs vs Denver Nuggets 10/22/2021 NBA Odds, Preview, and Prediction

The San Antonio Spurs head to Mile High to test the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center on Friday night.

San Antonio won their opening game of the season, defeating the Orlando Magic 123-97 in a game where they led from start to finish. The Spurs had a balanced scoring attack as they have seven double-digit scorers, including their five starters but none of them hitting the 20-point scoring mark.

The Nuggets disposed of the Western Conference champions Phoenix Suns on Wednesday behind a solid effort from 2021 MVP Nikola Jokic. Denver had great contributions from Jeff Green and P.J. Dozier off the bench while Jokic was ably supported by WIll Barton and Michael Porter Jr.

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs finished 10th in the Western Conference last season and lost in the play-in tournament. It was the second time that they missed the playoffs after making the postseason 22 consecutive years. San Antonio lost leading scorer DeMar DeRozan to the Bulls but the team boasts of a young roster where Derrick White is the longest-tenured player at five years with the team.

Devin Vassell led the Spurs with 19 points while Lonnie Walker IV added 17 to lead seven Spurs players who scored in double-digits against the Orlando Magic. Derrick White added 16 points while Jacob Poeltl had a double-double with 12 points and 13 rebounds for San Antonio which also lost veteran reserves Rudy Gay and Patty Mills in free agency.

Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets are coming off another playoff season where they finished third in the Western Conference. Denver took care of Blazers in the opening round but clearly missed the injured Jamal Murray when they faced and lost to the Suns in Round 2. Murray is still out and the Nuggets will need Will Barton, Michael Porter Jr., and Aaron Gordon to supply the offense while Murray is on the mend.

Nikola Jokic had another MVP-type performance last Wednesday, scoring 27 points on 13-22 shooting while also grabbing 13 rebounds to lead his team. Will Barton added 20 points while Michael Porter Jr. scored 15 on just 10 shot attempts. Aaron Gordon also had a quiet night with only 12 points on six shots.

Who Wins?

San Antonio is 1-5 SU in their last six games played. The Spurs are 1-8 SU in their last nine games played on the road. The Nuggets are also 1-4 SU in their last five games. Denver is 8-0 SU in their last eight games against the Southwest Division.

Denver is still without Jamal Murray but his absence hardly mattered in their opening game where the Nuggets walloped the Western Conference champions Phoenix Suns. Nikola Jokic played like the MVP while getting the much-needed support from Will Barton and Michael Porter Jr. The Nuggets also got double-digit scoring from Aaron Gordon, who took only six shots, and from bench players Jeff Green and P.J. Dozier.

Meanwhile, the Spurs blew out the Orlando Magic in their first game of the season. However, this San Antonio team doesn’t have a go-to guy like Jokic. The 2021-22 Spurs rely more on balanced scoring and as Derrick White admitted, they don’t run their offense around a certain player or players.

While this free-flowing style could be tough to defend, it’s also going to be an issue against a good defensive team like the Nuggets who held down the Suns to just 98 points in their season opener. I think Denver clamps down on defense and rattles this young Spurs team.

Prediction: Denver Nuggets

Other Bets to Make

The Spurs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games as betting underdogs, 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win of more than 10 points, 1-4 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs, 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against an opponent from the Western Conference, and 1-4 ATS in their last five October games.

The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games played. Denver is 8-20 ATS in their last 28 Friday games, 1-4 ATS in their last five games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, and 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Western Conference.

Both these teams played well in their season opener, but Denver’s win was more impressive because it came against the Suns while San Antonio’s win was against Orlando. Denver beat Phoenix by double digits despite Aaron Gordon taking just six shots and scoring only 12 points, which shows how deep their roster is this season.

San Antonio has a balanced scoring attack but when you play a contender like Denver, it’s better to have a go-to guy rather than have a free-flowing offense. I think that the Spurs will give it a good fight but without an offensive identity, they will come up short against an established contender like Denver.

Prediction: Nuggets -7.5

The total has gone over in five out of the last seven games played by the Spurs. The over is 8-1 in their last nine games when playing on one-day rest, 4-1 in their last five games after a straight-up win, 4-1 in their last five games as underdogs, 6-2 in their last eight games after an ATS win, 9-4 in their last 13 Friday games, and 5-0 against opponents with a winning record of .600 or better.

The total has gone over in 8 out of the last 12 games played by the Nuggets. The over is 5-1 in their last six games played at home, 4-1 in their last five games after a straight-up win of more than 10 points, 7-3 in their last 10 games after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game.

Both teams are coming off terrific defensive efforts in their opening games as the Spurs held down the Magic to 97 points while the Nuggets shut down Phoenix to just 98. However, they also put up at least 110 points each in their previous game so these are teams that can score points if needed.

Denver scored 110 points with Aaron Gordon taking just six shots. If he gets his game going here, it’s going to be a high-output game for the Nuggets. Michael Porter Jr. also didn’t have his usual high-scoring game so if he finds his stride here too, the Nuggets could run away with this game, easily. Better Denver offense beats the San Antonio defense and that will result in a high-scoring affair.

Prediction: Over 219

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