Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns 09/21/2022 NFL Odds and Prediction

The Pittsburgh Steelers will aim to get back on track when they visit the Cleveland Browns on Thursday night.

After defeating the 2022 AFC Champions Cincinnati Bengals 23-20 in their opening game, the Steelers dropped a 17-14 contest to the New England Patriots as three-point underdogs. Meanwhile, the Browns defeated the Carolina Panthers 26-24 on opening week then went on to give away what was supposed to be a “sure win” against the New York Jets last week.

The Steelers have won 15 out of their last 20 head-to-head games played against the Browns, including a 26-14 home win last January 3, 2022, which is the last meeting between these two teams.

Both teams won on the road to start their 2022 campaign. They also both lost at home in Week 2. It will be interesting to see what gives here and which team goes to 2-1 SU on the year.

The Browns opened as a 3.0-point spread favorite but that number has increased to -4.5 points for Cleveland after the Steelers lost to the Patriots last Sunday.

Kickoff will be at 8:15 PM ET at the FirstEnergy Stadium with TV coverage on Prime Video.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh ranks 30th in the NFL in total offense at only 255.0 yards per game with only the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears worse. Najee Harris has not played as well as he did last year and has a total of 72 rushing yards on 25 carries with zero touchdowns.

Meanwhile, Mitchell Trubisiky has not passed for more than 200 yards in his first two games with the Steelers. Trubisky passed for only 168 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT against the Patriots and another poor performance here could force the Steelers to go with rookie QB Kenny Pickett who is waiting in the wings to get his call.

The Steelers have conceded just 18.5 points per game in two games played so far. They have, however, struggled against the run and will need to fix that aspect if they want to beat a run-heavy Brown team.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns suffered a major collapse in Week 2. Up 30-17 with less than two minutes left in the game, they allowed the New York Jets to score two TDs in the final minute of the game. Despite that heartbreaking loss, the Browns rank 9th in the league in offense at 380.0 yards per game.

Jacoby Brissett has completed 65.6% of his passes for 376 yards with two TDs and 1 INT. Nick Chubb is averaging 5.9 yards per carry and Kareem Hunt at 4.3 yards per carry while Amari Cooper has caught 12 passes for 118 yards and one TD grab.

The Browns have allowed an average of 27.5 points per game this season. Their main struggles have been against the pass and they should look better given that Trubisky has struggled to move the ball well so far this season.

Who Wins?

Pittsburgh is 15-4-1 SU in their last 20 games played against Cleveland. The Steelers are 4-2-1 SU in their last seven road games against the Browns.

The Steelers are:

• 4-2 SU in their last 6 games played overall.

• 4-6 SU in their last 10 games played on the road.

• 6-3 SU in their last 9 September games.

The Browns are:

• 2-4 SU in their last 6 games played.

• 5-13 SU in their last 18 Week 3 games.

• 5-2 SU in their last 7 September games played.

Pittsburgh has not seen what it was hoping for when it named Mitch Trubisky as the starter over rookie Kenny Pickett. Trubisky has yet to throw for over 200 yards or more than one TD in a game this season.

The Steelers’ running attack has also been lackluster with Najee Harris rushing for only 72 total yards on 25 carries in two games played. With reigning Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt on the injured list and expected to miss four games, the offense must step up as the defense is still not 100%.

Cleveland had one of the big collapses in Week 2. The Browns were up 30-17 with 1:55 left in the game but they allowed the Jets and veteran Joe Flacco to steal a win from them. Cleveland failed to milk the clock while Flacco tossed two TDS in one minute to pull off the upset.

Nick Chubb has another brilliant game with 87 rushing yards on 7 carries with three rushing TDS while the Browns finished with 184 rushing yards on 37 carries. However, their defense put their ground effort to waste.

Save for that meltdown, the Brown played a good game and if Chubb and Kareem Hunt can continue playing well, Cleveland has a good chance of covering here. But Trubisky should be able to finally get it going here against the Browns’ pass defense. I like the value in Pittsburgh.

Prediction: Steelers +178

Cleveland Browns ATS Prediction

The Steelers are 5-1 ATS in the last six games played between these two teams. Pittsburgh is 2-1 ATS in their last three road games played in Cleveland. The underdog is also 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these two teams.

The Steelers are:

• 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

• 2-1 ATS in their last three games played on the road.

• 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games as road underdogs.

• 5-1 ATS in their last 6 September games as betting underdogs.

• 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss.

• 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC North.

• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss.

• 6-3 ATS in their last 9 September games.

• 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.

• 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

The Browns are:

• 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

• 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.

• 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.

• 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 versus AFC North.

• 20-43-1 ATS in their last 64 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• 21-48-1 ATS in their last 70 games following a straight-up loss.

• 8-21 ATS in their last 29 versus the AFC.

• 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

• 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• 5-13 ATS in their last 18 Week 3 games.

• 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

Pittsburgh hasn’t looked good offensively so you can put some of the blame on Trubisky. However, considering they played two good defenses in their opening two games, it’s not that the Steelers have been that terrible.

Meanwhile, the Browns have been woeful on defense in Weeks 1 and 2. They gave up four passing TDs to Joe Flacco last Sunday. Offensively, the Browns have fared well enough, thanks mainly to their bruising grounded attack.

While the Steelers have struggled to defend against the pass, they have allowed just under four yards per rush and should be able to contain Cleveland’s run-heavy offense. On the other side of the field, the Browns will be missing Jadeveon Clowney in this game, and add that to their defensive woes, the Steelers should be able to get enough scores to win this game.

The Steelers could easily be 2-0 right now and the Browns at 0-2. I don’t think the Steelers aren’t that bad just as I don’t think the Browns are better, at least without Watson. Give me the plus points here.

Prediction: Steelers +4.5

Steelers vs Browns Over/Under 

The total has gone under in five out of the last seven meetings between these two teams. The under 7-2 in their last nine meetings in Cleveland.

Pittsburgh Steelers over/under trends:

• Under is 4-1 in the Steelers’ last 5 games overall.

• Under is 44-18-1 in the Steelers’ last 63 road games.

• Under is 7-3 in the Steelers’ last 10 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

• Under is 4-0 in the Steelers’ last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

• Under is 5-0 in the Steelers’ last 5 games in September.

• Under is 4-0 in the Steelers’ last 4 against. AFC North.

• Under is 5-1 in the Steelers’ last 6 games following an ATS loss.

• Under is 4-1 in the Steelers’ last 5 versus AFC.

• Under is 6-2 in the Steelers’ last 8 games following a straight-up loss.

• Under is 37-14 in the Steelers’ last 51 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

• Under is 5-2 in the Steelers’ last 7 games in Week 3.

• Under is 10-4 in the Steelers’ last 14 games on grass.

• Over is 4-1 in the Steelers’ last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Cleveland Browns over/under trends:

• Under is 5-2 in the Browns’ last 7 home games.

• Under is 6-4 in the Browns’ last 10 home games as betting favorites.

• Under is 6-4 in the Browns’ last 10 games as favorites.

• Under is 7-3 in the Browns’ last 10 games on grass.

• Under is 5-1 in the Browns’ last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• Under is 6-1 in the Browns’ last 7 Thursday games.

• Under is 4-2 in Browns’ last 6 games against the AFC North.

• Over is 6-1 in the Browns’ last 7 games in September.

• Over is 11-4 in the Browns’ last 15 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

I expect the Steelers to take advantage of Cleveland’s woeful pass defense which has been the main reason why they are conceding 27.5 points per game after two weeks played. Sure, Trubisky has looked flat so far but given the Browns’ weakness, he should be able to finally get it going here.

While Cleveland has poor defense, its offense has been productive at 28 points per game through two games played so far this season. Cleveland scored 30 last week against the Jets. They have averaged 24 points per game in their last three games played against the Steelers. Cleveland has not been held under 14 points in its last seven games played.

These teams have combined to score an average of 44.7 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 50.0 points per game in their most recent three, including 40 the last time they played on January 3, 2022. Give me these teams to hit the over.

Prediction: Over 38

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