Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans 04/22/2022 NBA Odds and Prediction

The Phoenix Suns head to the Smoothie King Center on Friday night to take on the New Orleans Pelicans in Game 3 of the best-of-seven playoff series.

New Orleans stunned Phoenix in Game 2 with a 125-114 win to tie their series behind big games from Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum. With the win, the Pelicans have stolen home-court advantage and will look to capitalize on that beginning in Game 3.

Meanwhile, the Suns will try to win the series without superstar guard Devin Booker who is out with a hamstring injury. Booker sustained the injury in Game 2 while trying to go after a Jaxson Hayes dunk and will be unable to play in the remaining games of this series. The Suns opened as massive favorites to win the series but their futures odds across the different markets have faded since Booker’s official diagnosis.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns suffered a big blow when Devin Booker injured his hamstring in Game 2 and will need their other players to step up and help make up for D-Book’s absence. Phoenix averaged 115 points per game during the regular season but without Booker’s 28-point scoring average, the onus will fall on Chris Paul to lead this team to the promised land.

Despite not finishing the game, Booker led the Suns with 31 points while Chris Paul added 17 points and 14 assists. Miles Bridges contributed 19 points and 6 rebounds while Jae Crowder and Cam Johnson combined to hit just 1 of 11 three-pointers in Game 2. DeAndre Ayton only took six shots and finished with 10 points and 9 rebounds in the losing effort.

Phoenix allowed 107.4 points per game during the regular season, the 8th best in the entire NBA. However, they gave up 125 in Game 2. The suns also ranked 10th in rebounding at 45.3 boards pulled down per contest and are 4th in passing at 27.4 assists per game this season.

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans head to Game 3 with plenty of confidence after pulling off a massive upset in Game 2. The Pelicans scored 125 points in Game 2 after ranking only 21st in offense during the regular season at 109.3 points per game. New Orleans got a break when Booker got hurt and didn’t return to the floor and the Pelicans took advantage to win the game.

Brandon Ingram missed a triple-double with 37 points, 11 rebounds, and 9 assists to lead the Pelicans. C.J. McCollum also had a huge night with 23 points and 8 rebounds Meanwhile, Jonas Valanciunas added 10 points with 13 rebounds and Herbert Jones added 14 points for New Orleans.

New Orleans made 54% of their shots and 56.7% of their three-pointers in Game 2 but their defense allowed 114 or four more than their season scoring defense average. The Pelicans also ranked 11th in rebounding at 45.2 boards grabbed per contest and 13th in passing at 25.0 assists per game.

Who Wins?

Phoenix is 12-5 SU in their last 17 games played. The Suns are 2-3 SU in their last five games played on the road,16-4 SU in their last 20 games against the Southwest Division, and 11-5 SU in their last 16 games against the Western Conference.

New Orleans is 8-4 SU in their last 12 games played. The Pelicans are 2-1 SU in their last three home games played, 6-1 SU in their last seven Friday games, and 8-4 SU in their last 12 games played against the Western Conference.

No question that Devin Booker’s injury has changed the complexion of this series. What opened as a walk in the park for the best team in the NBA during the regular season is now an evenly matched series with the oddsmakers calling Game 3 a pick’em game.

Before Booker left Game 2, the Suns were down by 3. They went on to get outscored 48-40 the rest of the way with Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum hitting big shots for the Pelicans.

Head coach Monty Williams says the next man on the bench will have to rise to the occasion and in the case of the Suns, that should be Landry Shamet but he too just got back from a foot injury and missed Game 1. Forward Cam Johnson also needs to up his scoring to help Chris Paul, Mikal Bridges, and Deandre Ayton carry the team.

Brandon Ingram continues to be hot for the Pelicans while C.J. McCollum has provided the team with the experience and consistent scoring. New Orleans enters this game with plenty of confidence after pulling off the Game 2 upset. However, the Suns should get the home-court advantage back on Friday. Chris Paul should have a big game when it matters most.

Prediction: Phoenix Suns

Other Bets to Make

The Suns are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games played. Phoenix is 0-4 ATS in their last four games as road favorites, 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as betting favorites, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against an opponent with a losing straight up record, and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after a double-digit loss. However, the Suns are also 17-7 ATS in their last 24 Friday games, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games when playing on two days’ rest, 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 4-1 ATS in their last five conference quarterfinals games, and 14-6 ATS in their last 20 playoff games as betting favorites.

The Pelicans are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 Friday games, 5-1 ATS in their last five Conference quarterfinals games, 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on two days’ rest, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as playoff underdogs, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 April games, and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against the Pacific Division. New Orleans is also 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after a straight-up win, 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, 1-4 ATS in their last five games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 1-4 ATS in their last five games as betting underdogs, 1-5 ATS in their last six games after an ATS win, and 1-5 ATS in their last six games as home underdogs.

Head to head, the Suns are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games played against the Pelicans. Phoenix is also 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in New Orleans.

The injury to Devin Booker is a major loss for the Phoenix Suns. However, the Suns were the best team in the NBA during the regular season by a mile. They have a very talented lineup that can fill the statistical void left by Booker. They also have one of the best leaders in the game in Chris Paul.

Without Booker, I expect Paul to be the one running the show for the Suns. CP3 will get Mikal Bridges and Deandre Ayton involved and once these two get going, they will open up the floor for Cam Johnson and Jae Crowder. With New Orleans in the Bottom 10 in three-point FG percentage allowed this season, look for the Suns to rain down three-pointers in Game 3.

Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum will keep the Pelicans in the thick of the fight. However, the Suns’ defense should make the adjustments in Game 3 and contain the Pelicans’ top two scorers from going off again. This is a pick ’em line and so I’ll roll with the Suns anyway.

Prediction: Phoenix Suns

The total has gone under in six out of the last seven games played by the Suns. The under is 4-1 in Phoenix’s last five road games, 6-0 in their last six games after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game, 4-0 in their last four games after an ATS loss, 5-0 in their last five games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 7-1-1 in their last nine games after a straight up loss of more than 10 points, 6-1 in their last seven games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their previous game, 4-1 in their last five road games, 4-1 in their last five games as betting favorites, and 9-2-1 in their last 12 Conference quarterfinals games.

The total has gone under in 12 out of the last 17 games played by the Pelicans. The under is 8-1 in their last nine games after a straight up win, 7-1 in their last eight games when playing on two days’ rest, 6-1 in their last seven Friday games, 4-1 in their last five playoff games as betting underdogs, 9-3 in their last dozen games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 8-3 in their last 11 games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their previous game, 7-3 in their last 10 games after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game, and 34-15-2 in their last 51 games after an ATS win.

After hitting the under in Game 1 with a combined 209 points, these teams went over the 221.5 in Game 2 total with 239 points. However, there are several reasons why these teams are unlikely to hit that impressive scoring mark. One, both teams shot above 50% in Game 2 which is uncommon, especially when the NBA hits the playoffs. Although both teams have excellent scorers, the Game 2 shooting was just off the charts.

Second, the Suns were 8th during the regular season in scoring defense and they allowed the Pelicans to score only 99 in Game 1. I expect the Phoenix defense to be better in Game 3 after taking a day off in the previous game. Third, the Pelicans were only 21st in the league in scoring during the regular season and while the Suns were 5th in putting up points during the regular season, they will be without their top scorer in Devin Booker for Games 3 and 4. Sure, the Suns still got plenty of good scorers but the Phoenix offense will take a hit with Booker’s absence.

The series is tied at 1-1 and both teams cannot just rely on hot shooting to win games. Both sides will have to play good defense to pull off this crucial Game 3 win.

Prediction: Under 216

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