TCU vs Georgia 01/09/2023 College Football Playoff Championship Game

The TCU Horned Frogs look to pull off the biggest upset in CFP Championship Game history when they face the Georgia Bulldogs at SoFi Stadium on Monday night.

TCU already owns the biggest upset in CFP history when they defeated the no. 2 Michigan Wolverine as +7 point underdogs in the Fiesta Bowl. But the Horned Frogs can even add more history to their Cinderella season if they beat the Bulldogs in the National title game on Monday.

Georgia is the defending National Champions. The Bulldogs are on the verge of an unbeaten season at 14-0 SU right now. They enter this matchup after rallying from a 14-point deficit to beat Ohio State in the Peach Bowl.

TCU opened as a +13.5 point spread underdog at online sportsbook BetOnline. However, those odds are now at +12.5 with the possible absences in the Georgia offense, notably TE Darnell Washington. TCU meanwhile could be without RB Kendre Miller who left the Fiesta Bowl with an injury.

The opening kick-off for the CFP title game is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. EST from the home of the NFL’s Los Angeles Rams.

TCU Horned Frogs

The TCU Horned Frogs completed a stunning turnaround. They were 5-7 SU last season and fired head coach Gary Peterson and replaced him with Sonny Dykes who coached SMU before. Dykes made the first big move when he inserted Max Duggan into the starting unit and Duggan showed out this season, even finishing runner-up in the Heisman Trophy voting.

Despite losing to Kansas State, the Horned Frogs were selected for the College Football Playoffs. They proved their worth by stunning no. 2 Michigan at the Fiesta Bowl, leading the game from start to finish. Duggan threw for only 225 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs But he also rushed for 57 yards.

The Horned Frogs are the 67th highest-scoring team in the nation and are also 17th in rushing offense this year. They have two solid running backs in Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado but Miller is not certain to play on Monday after leaving the Fiesta Bowl with an injury. The Horned Frogs are 63rd in scoring defense but just 70th in run defense and 91st in pass defense.

Georgia Bulldogs

After not winning the National title in over 40 years, the Bulldogs now have the opportunity to win two in a row. Georgia opened the season as the no. 3 team in the nation and they slowly crept to the top and stayed there. Georgia rallied from a 14-point deficit to beat Ohio State in the Peach Bowl.

Stetson Bennett had a big game with 398 passing yards with 3 pass TDs, including the game-winning throw to Adonai Mitchell. Bennett also ran for one touchdown and also had one INT. Georgia’s defense allowed too many points against Ohio State but made the big play when it forced a sack that led to the unsuccessful 50-yard FG attempt that ended the game.

Georgia is 6th in the nation in scoring and is 15th in rush offense this season. The Bulldogs also have the best red zone offense in college football. However, they may be without bruising TE Darnell Washington who suffered an injury during the Paech Bowl. The Bulldogs’ defense has been good most of this season but in their last two games, they have allowed 35.5 points per game.

TCU vs Georgia SU Prediction

Georgia defeated TCU 31-23 in the only meeting between these two teams way back on December 30, 2016.

TCU Horned Frogs SU trends:

• The Horned Frogs are 13-1 SU in their last 14 games played.

• The Horned Frogs are 1-1 SU in two games this season played at a neutral site.

• The Horned Frogs are 3-1 SU in their last 4 games played as betting underdogs.

Georgia Bulldog SU trends:

• The Bulldogs are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games played.

• The Bulldogs are 16-0 SU in their last 16 games played as betting favorites.

• The Bulldogs are 4-0 SU in four neutral site games played this season.

Heisman Trophy runner-up Max Duggan accounted for four TCU touchdowns in their 51-45 upset win over Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl. But perhaps the bigger story in that game was how the Horned Frogs ended up with 80 more rushing yards than the Wolverines after allowing a 54-yard run on Michigan’s first play from scrimmage. In fact, more than half of TCU’s offense came via the rush.

More surprising was where the rushing yards of TCU came from. With star running back Kendre Miller leaving the first half of the Fiesta Bowl with a knee injury, Emari Demercado rushed for 150 yards, more than twice what he ran for in any other game this year. Miller only carried the ball 8 times in the Fiesta Bowl and his status for Monday’s game remains uncertain.

This marks head coach Kirby Smart’s third appearance in the national games in 8 seasons as Georgia’s head coach. Now he is looking to make the Bulldogs the first back-to-back champions in more than 10 years.

Defense has been the key to Georgia’s success but the Bulldogs have scored 40 or more point in six out of their last nine games played, including the Peach Bowl. In that game, Stetson Bennett threw for 398 yards to rally the Bulldogs from 14 points down to beat Ohio State 42-41.

Tight end Darnell Washington could miss Monday’s game as he departed the Peach Bowl with an ankle injury. Washington caught 417 yards and 2 TD passes during the regular season and is a key blocker in the Bulldogs’ two-tight-end offense.

TCU’s offensive balance could be an issue for Georgia. The Bulldogs’ defense allowed 467 offensive yards and 41 points against Ohio State. If the Horned Frogs’ defense delivers the big plays that they did against the Wolverines, this could be an interesting game.

Georgia’s defense has conceded 82 points in their last 2 games played after allowing only 82 in the previous seven games. There’s a chance that TCU keeps this close and if that happens, that’s where the Bulldogs’ championship experience will become a factor.

I expect the Horned Frogs to be a game opponent. However, the Bulldogs have the experience and talent to do this.

Prediction: Georgia Bulldogs

TCU vs Georgia ATS Prediction

The Bulldogs covered the betting spread in the only meeting between these two teams.

TCU Horned Frogs ATS trends:

• The Horned Frogs are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.

• The Horned Frogs are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games.

• The Horned Frogs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

• The Horned Frogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.

• The Horned Frogs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

• The Horned Frogs are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

• The Horned Frogs are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win.

• The Horned Frogs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on field turf.

• The Horned Frogs are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight-up win.

• The Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

• The Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.

Georgia Bulldogs ATS trends:

• The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.

• The Bulldogs are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games following an ATS loss.

• The Bulldogs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 bowl games.

• The Bulldogs are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

• The Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in January.

• The Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on field turf.

• The Bulldogs are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 neutral site games.

• The Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game

• The Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.

TCU has been able to find ways to score and score they did against Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl. They should be able to produce points here too, with the Georgia defense looking fallible in recent weeks, allowing 35.5 points per game in their last two games played.

The Bulldogs’ defense will also have to deal with a tough QB in Duggan who can both pass and run the football. No doubt that Bennett will have his share of big plays but the possible absence of Washington could hurt the Georgia offense’s ability to dominate the line of scrimmage without an extra lineman.

Georgia has the ability to get to a fast start here. However, we have seen TCU continue to fight game after game. I think this will be a high-scoring game and TCU will keep itself within striking distance. I expect the Bulldogs’ experience to carry them to victory. However, I don’t think this will be a blowout as the Horned Frogs will fight to the end. I’ll take the plus points here.

Prediction: TCU Horned Frogs +12.5

TCU vs Georgia Over/Under Prediction

The total went over in the only game played between these two teams on December 30, 2016.

TCU Horned Frogs over/under trends:

• The under is 5-0 in the Horned Frogs’ last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.

• The under is 5-2 in the Horned Frogs’ last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

• The under is 4-1 in the Horned Frogs’ last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

• The under is 4-1 in the Horned Frogs’ last 5 games following a straight-up win.

• The under is 4-0 in the Horned Frogs’ last 4 games following an ATS win.

• The over is 5-1 in the Horned Frogs’ last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

• The over is 5-1 in the Horned Frogs’ last 6 non-conference games.

• The over is 4-1 in the Horned Frogs’ last 5 bowl games.

• The over is 7-2 in the Horned Frogs’ last 9 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

• The over is 9-4 in the Horned Frogs’ last 13 games against a team with a winning record.

The number looks daunting but remember that six of the 8 CFP Championship Games have seen both teams combined for 60 or more points with the total averaging 64.5 points in those 8 games.

Georgia has one of the best defenses in the nation this season but over their last 3 games, they have allowed 28 points per game and 35 PPG over their last two. Georgia is also 6th in the nation in scoring while TCU is right there with them at 7th overall in the country.

Both teams combined for 28 points in the 4th quarter of their respective Bowl games. Bennett led the Bulldogs to over 31 points in last season’s title game. Duggan is tough enough to keep the Horned Frogs in the thick of the fight. This one’s going over.

Prediction: Over 63

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