Tennessee Titans vs Atlanta Falcons 9/29/19 Pick

The Tennessee Titans and Atlanta Falcons look to go back on track as they take on each other on September 29, 2019 at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Two Straight Losses As Favorites

The Tennessee Titans look to end a two game losing skid on Sunday. The Titans have suffered two straight losses as NFL betting favorites. They lost 17-19 to the Indianapolis Colts and 20-7 against the Jacksonville Jaguars in their last outing. Marcus Mariota threw for 304 yards against the Jaguars while Derrick Henry rushed for 44 yards with one touchdown. Adam Humphries had six catches for a total of 93 yards to lead the Tennessee receiving group. Mariota has a 4:0 TD to interception ratio but he has problems generating points for his team.

The Atlanta Falcons are also 1-2 on the season. They lost 12-28 to the Minnesota Vikings in week 1 and then fell to the Indianapolis Colts 27-24 last week. Matt Ryan threw for 304 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. Devonta Freeman rushed for 88 yards while Julio Jones caught eight passes for 128 yards and one touchdown. However, the Falcons had no answer for Colts’ QB Jacoby Brissett and Indianapolis lost the match 24-27 on the road. Matt Ryan has made some mistakes with his 8:6 TD to interception ratio.

Who Wins?

Tennessee is 5-3 SU in their last five games played and the Titans are 4-1 SU in their last five games against NFC opponents. Atlanta is 4-2 SU in their last six games played. The Falcons are 2-4 SU in their last six games played in Week 4. Head to head, the Titans are 5-2 SU in their last seven games against the Falcons. Atlanta is 5-2 SU in their last seven home games against Tennessee.

After beating the hyped Cleveland Browns in week 1, it has been a downhill route for the Titans. Tennessee has lost its last two games, both as favorites, by a combined 15 points. The Falcons came up short the last time but that was on the road against the Colts. They won at home versus the Eagles in week 2 and will be very determined to avoid a 1-3 start to their season.  I think the Falcons win at home. Prediction: Atlanta Falcons

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Other Bets To Make

The Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games played. Tennessee is 6-3 ATS in their last nine games played in September and 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games played in week 4. The Falcons are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games played and 0-12 ATS in their last 12 games against the AFC Conference. Atlanta is also 1-4 ATS in their last five games played in September. Head to head, the Titans are 3-1-2 ATS in their last six meetings.

Tennessee is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after an ATS loss. Atlanta is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 September home games. The Titans conceded 14 first quarter points to the Jacksonville Jaguars and could not get out of that early hole. That defeat was more alarming than their loss to the Colts which was close and was probably a result of the usual sloppy Thursday play. The Falcons are off to a better start than I expected but I still don’t trust them. However, when you pair them against the Titans, I think Atlanta is the safer pick given their overall performance so far. Prediction: Falcons -3.5

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The total has gone over in six out of the last nine games played by the Titans. The total has gone over in five out of the last six games of Tennessee against NFC opponents. However, the under is 10-2 in the Titans’ last 12 games against the NFC South Division. The total has gone under in four out of the last five games played by the Falcons. The under is also 11-5 in their last 16 games against the AFC South Division. Head to head, the under is 4-2 in the last six meetings between these two teams.

These teams have combined to score just over 40 points per game in their last six meetings and the under has gone 3-0 in their last three head to head meetings. Both these teams play better when their defenses are on point. They also enjoy success when their running game dictates the pace and runs out the clock. I think both teams are primed to go under in this contest. I’m picking the under here. Prediction: Under 45

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