The Kentucky Derby is the showcase of horse racing in the United States. As such, it is the most anticipated horse race of the year. The race is still over four months away but as early as now, conversations about the prestigious race have begun. In fact, Bovada and several other betting sites have already opened its betting lines for the said event.
Betting on horse races is very popular but for the benefit of beginners and those who are unfamiliar with it, let’s discuss about the Kentucky Derby and the take an early look at who the betting gods currently think will win the race.
The Kentucky Derby is a Grade 1 stakes race for three year old thoroughbreds held annually during the first Saturday of May at Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky. The race is ran over one and a quarter miles with colts and geldings in the race carrying 126 pounds (57kg) and fillies in the race carrying 121 pounds (55kgs).
The Kentucky Derby has been run every year since its first race in 1875. Hence, this year’s installment of the race is the 145th edition of the Kentucky Derby. It will be held on May 3 and 4, 2018 with the big race scheduled for May 4th. This year’s race will have the highest purse ever in the history of the Kentucky Derby.
Earlier this month, Churchill Downs announced that the purse for the 145th Kentucky Derby will be raised to $3M. The Derby purse had been $2M since 2005 and $1M from 1996-2004. As a result the winner of the race will now receive a mammoth $1.86M in prize money while the 2nd placer will take home $600,000. The 3rd placed horse will earn $300,000 and the 4th placer will walk away with $150,000.
The Kentucky Derby Field has a rather large field at 20 as compared to other horse races. Before they enter the final field of 20, these horses undergo a series of qualifying races called the “Road to the Kentucky Derby”. This is composed of 35 races broken down to 19 races for the Kentucky Derby Prep Season and 16 races for the Kentucky Derby Season. Points will be given to the Top 4 finishers in the specified races.
As of this writing, 11 of the 19 Prep Season races have been decided with the next one, which is the Lecomte Stakes at the Fairgrounds Race Course in New Orleans, Louisiana, scheduled for January 19th. So far, here are the Top 30 horses in the Road to the Kentucky Derby Points Standings:
| # | Horse | Sire | Trainer | Points | Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings |
| 1 | Game Winner | Candy Ride (Arg) | Bob Baffert | 30 | $1,140,000 |
| 2 | Knicks Go | Paytner | Ben Colebrook | 18 | $654,085 |
| 3 | Signalman | General Quarters | Ken McPeek | 18 | $400,000 |
| 4 | Gunmetal Gray | Exchange Rate | Jerry Hollendorfer | 14 | $180,000 |
| 5 | Complexity | Maclean’s Music | Chad Brown | 10 | $275,000 |
| 6 | Cairo Cat | Cairo Prince | Ken McPeek | 10 | $86,490 |
| 7 | Maximus Mischief | Into Mischief | Robert Reid Jr. | 10 | $137,500 |
| 8 | Improbable | City Zip | Bob Baffert | 10 | $180,000 |
| 9 | Long Range Toddy | Take Charge Indy | Steve Asmussen | 10 | $300,000 |
| 10 | Mind Control | Stay Thirsty | Gregory Sacco | 10 | $323,400 |
| 11 | Our Braintrust | Freud | Cathal Lynch | 4 | $30,000 |
| 12 | Bankit | Central Banker | Steve Asmussen | 4 | $120,000 |
| 13 | Mucho Gusto | Mucho Macho Man | Bob Baffert | 4 | $60,000 |
| 14 | Network Effect | Mark Valeski | Chad Brown | 4 | $50,000 |
| 15 | Dunph | Temple City | Mike Maker | 4 | $40,000 |
| 16 | Sueno | Atreides | Keith Desormeaux | 4 | $20,000 |
| 17 | Code of Honor | Nobel Mission | Shug McGaughey | 4 | $100,000 |
| 18 | Tight Ten | Tapit | Steve Asmussen | 4 | $67,900 |
| 19 | Call Paul | Friesan Fire | Jason Servis | 2 | $170,000 |
| 20 | Mr. Money | Goldencents | Bret Calhoun | 2 | $100,000 |
| 21 | Rowayton | Into Mischief | Jerry Hollendorfer | 2 | $96,000 |
| 22 | Standard Deviation | Curlin | Chad Brown | 2 | $50,000 |
| 23 | Pole Setter | Take Charge Indy | Brad Cox | 2 | $17,950 |
| 24 | Limonite | Lemon Drop Kid | Steve Asmussen | 2 | $158,500 |
| 25 | Tax | Arch | Danny Gargan | 2 | $30,000 |
| 26 | Extra Hope | Shanghai Bobby | Richard Mandella | 2 | $36,000 |
| 27 | Dunph | Temple City | Mike Maker | 2 | $46,000 |
| 28 | Family Biz | Fed Biz | Edward Barker | 2 | $18,900 |
| 29 | Much Better | Pioneerof the Nile | Bob Baffert | 2 | $12,000 |
| 30 | Gray Magician | Graydar | Peter Miller | 1 | $6,000 |
Trainer Bob Baffert has been the standard of the Kentucky Derby. His horses American Pharoah and Justify didn’t just win the Kentucky Derby. They won the Triple crown in 2015 and 2018 respectively. Overall, Baffert has won five times in the Kentucky Derby, including last year with Justify. This year, Baffert will be looking to tie Ben A. Jones’ record of six Kentucky Derby wins by a trainer and he has a handful of horses which are among the early favorites to win the race.
Bred by Summer Wind Equine in Kentucky, Game Winner made his debut last August 18th at Del Mar and won by 5 ¾ lengths. He did so well physically that Baffert decided to race him again a couple of weeks later at the Del Mar Futurity (G1) at seven furlongs. Another Baffert horse, Roadster, was the betting favorite but Game Winner emerged victorious again. Then as betting favorite in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) last September 23, 2018, Game Winner bested Gunmetal Gray and Del Mar Futurity runner-up Rowayton.
Improbable is the +1000 favorite next to Game Winner and he also belongs to Baffert’s stable. The juvenile son of City Zip gave Baffert his fifth consecutive Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) win last December. Improbable is also unbeaten, in three starts. Baffert likes Improbable and calls him a smaller version of Justify because of his long strides.
Gunmetal Gray, currently priced at +2000 , was impressive at the Santa Anita in the first Road to the Kentucky Derby series prep of 2019. The Jerry Hollendorfer trained colt made a last-to-first rally to beat favored Coliseum in the Sham (G3) earlier this month. Improbable finished second to Game Winner in his stakes debut in last September’s American Pharoah (G1).
Rowayton, also pegged at +2000 is the second Jerry Hollendorfer horse in the current Top 5 betting favorites. He finished a strong second to Game Winner in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) right after his 1 ¾ lengths victory in his debut at Del Mar last July. Rowayton also placed third behind Game Winner and Gunmetal Gray in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1).
Bob Baffert’s third horse in the list of favorites is Coliseum, who is currently at +2500. A homebred son of Tapit for Godolphin LLC of Sheikh Mohammed al Maktoum of Dubai, broke his maiden by 6 ¾ lengths. Coliseum was the betting favorite in his second race- the Sham Stakes (G3) last January 5 but he broke poorly, ran last early and finished a disappointing sixth of seen and 4 ¼ lengths beaten by winner Gunmetal Gray.
Here are the complete odds to win the 2019 Kentucky Derby. Odds are taken from Bovada as of 1/13/19:
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The early odds at Bovada provide an opportunity for bettors to put their money on the horses whom they think are going to earn a slot in the starting gate and win the Kentucky Derby. This Futures bets usually have larger payouts than betting on the same horse on race day because the final 20 entrants to the Kentucky Derby isn’t known yet.
On the other hand, these thoroughbreds are so fragile that to predict their possibilities months in advance of the Kentucky Derby could prove to be disappointing. This is the two edged-sword that you have to deal with and that’s the beauty of betting. It’s what makes the sport more exciting. In this case, It’s what’s going to make the “Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports” even more exciting.
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