Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers 03/24/2023 NBA Odds and Prediction

The Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Los Angeles Lakers at Crypto.com Arena on Friday night.

OKC and Los Angeles are tied with identical 36-37 SU records but the Lakers currently hold the 9th seed by virtue of tie-breakers. The Thunder meanwhile are 11th but they could swap places with the Lakers if they win this game.

The Thunder are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played but are coming off a 127-105 loss to the L.A. Clippers. This marks their third straight game played in Los Angeles so there won’t be travel issues. However, this is also the Clippers’ third game in four days and the second of a back-to-back schedule so fatigue could be an issue.

The Lakers could have been 7-3 SU as well but last week’s buzzer-beater loss to the Mavericks made their L-10 record 6-4 SU. Los Angeles is coming off a 122-111 win over the Phoenix Suns in their last game and they are looking to build momentum as the regular season heads to the home stretch.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder are 22-24 SU in Western Conference play. OKC is 8th in the league in offensive rebounds at 11.4 per game. They are led by Josh Giddey’s 2.4 offensive boards per contest.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is scoring 31.4 points per game with 4.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists per contest. Giddey is contributing 16.0 points and 8.0 rebounds while shooting 48.2% over his last 10 games played.

OKC is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played. They are scoring 114.1 points per game while also grabbing 43.7 boards per contest. The Thunder are also issuing 22.1 assists per game, blocking 2.7 shots per game, and coming up with 7.7 steals per contest. OKC is allowing opponents to score 114.7 points per game during this span.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are 21-24 SU against Western Conference teams. They are averaging 13.5 turnovers per game and are 14-13 SU when they win the turnover battle.

Anthony Davis leads the Lakers with 25.9 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game. Meanwhile, D’Angelo Russell is making an average of 2.4 three-pointers per game over his last 10 games played.

Los Angeles is 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. They are averaging 113.3 points, 43.4 rebounds, 25.1 assists, 6.1 steals, and 3.6 blocks per game while shooting 47.2% from the floor. The Lakers are allowing 109.1 points per game this season.

Thunder vs Lakers SU Prediction

The Thunder are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games played against the Lakers. The Thunder are 2-3 SU in their last five games played in Los Angeles.

Oklahoma City Thunder SU trends:

• The Thunder are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played.
• The Thunder are 14-21 SU in 35 road games played this season.
• The Thunder are 21-26 SU in their last 47 games played as betting underdogs.
• The Thunder are 8-13 SU in their last 21 road games against the Western Conference.

Los Angeles Lakers SU trends:

• The Lakers are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played.
• The Lakers are 5-3 SU in their last 8 games played at home.
• The Lakers are 13-10 SU in their last 23 home games played against the Western Conference.
• The Lakers are 13-9 SU in their last 22 games played as betting underdogs.

The Thunder and Lakers are two of the four teams with 36-37 SU records and are currently the No.8 to No.11 teams in the Western Conference after Thursday’s games. With one of those four teams going home after the regular season, this one is a must-win for both teams.

OKC has played well as of late as they have won 7 out of their last 10 games played. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 6-4 SU in their last 10 but could’ve been also 7-3 SU had they not lost at the buzzer against Dallas.

Give plenty of credit to the Thunder for making it this far. Nobody expected this team to figure in the playoff race after losing Chet Holmgren before the start of the year. Meanwhile, the Lakers have been a disappointment this season as they were touted as one of the preseason favorites.

But at this stage of the season, I like the Lakers more than the Thunder. While OKC has young and fresh legs, the Lakers have experienced players who have been here before. I expect another big game from Anthony Davis on Thursday. With D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves cooking right now, the Lakers look solid in this matchup.

Give me the Lakers to beat the Thunder with better offense and a solid defensive effort.

Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers

Thunder vs Lakers ATS Prediction

The Thunder are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Lakers. Oklahoma City is also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played in Los Angeles.

Oklahoma City Thunder ATS trends:

• The Thunder are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
• The Thunder are 47-23-3 ATS in their last 73 road games.
• The Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points.
• The Thunder are 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 Friday games.
• The Thunder are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
• The Thunder are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss.
• The Thunder are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Thunder are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Thunder are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Thunder are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Thunder are 10-4-3 ATS in their last 17 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
• The Thunder are 39-19-2 ATS in their last 60 games against a team with a losing straight-up record.
• The Thunder are 47-23-3 ATS in their last 73 road games.

Los Angeles Lakers ATS trends:

• The Lakers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
• The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
• The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
• The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• The Lakers are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.
• The Lakers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The Lakers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a losing straight-up record.

The Thunder have been terrific against the betting spread this season. OKC is the best ATS team in the NBA this season at 43-26-3 or a cover rate of 61.4%.However, that number drops to 5-5-1 when playing without rest and during those 11 games, they have been outscored by an average of 4.5 points per game.

Meanwhile, the Lakers are just 19-18 ATS in 37 home games played this season and that number drops to 8-10 ATS when playing as home favorites. Los Angeles is also just 35-17-1 ATS overall this season.

OKC has split its first two games at Crypto.com Arena this week. However, they were blown out by 25 points on Thursday night by the Clippers. Meanwhile, the Lakers are coming off a big win over the Suns at home. Although the Lakers have shown mixed results, they are playing much better basketball right now.

The Thunder have overachieved this season but I expect the Lakers to step up as they need this win badly.

Prediction: Lakers

Thunder vs Lakers Over/Under Prediction

The over is 9-4 in the last 13 games played between these two teams. The over is also 3-2 in their last 5 games played in Los Angeles.

Oklahoma City Thunder over/under trends:

• The over is 10-4-1 in the Thunder’s last 15 overall
• The over is 6-1 in the Thunder’s last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.
• The over is 5-1-1 in the Thunder’s last 7 games following a straight-up loss.
• The over is 4-1 in the Thunder’s last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• The over is 4-1 in the Thunder’s last 5 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points.
• The over is 15-5-1 in the Thunder’s last 21 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 9-3 in the Thunder’s last 12 Friday games.
• The over is 10-4-1 in the Thunder’s last 15 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 10-4-1 in the Thunder’s last 15 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 7-3 in the Thunder’s last 10 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
• The over is 9-4-1 in the Thunder’s last 14 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 11-5 in the Thunder’s last 16 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
• The under is 7-3 in the Thunder’s last 10 games against a team with a losing straight-up record.

Los Angeles Lakers over/under trends:

• The under is 10-4-1 in the Lakers’ last 15 overall.
• The under is 9-2 in the Lakers’ last 11 home games
• The under is 6-1-1 in the Lakers’ last 8 games following an ATS win
• The under is 6-1 in the Lakers’ last 7 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points
• The under is 6-1 in the Lakers’ last 7 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.
• The under is 7-2 in the Lakers’ last 9 home games against a team with a losing road record.
• The under is 16-5-1 in the Lakers’ last 22 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The under is 6-2-1 in the Lakers’ last 9 games following a straight-up win.
• The under is 10-4-1 in the Lakers’ last games 15 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 10-4-1 in the Lakers’ last 15 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 9-4 in the Lakers’ last 13 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 9-4-1 in the Lakers’ last 14 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 9-4 in the Lakers’ last 13 Friday games.
• The over is 9-3 in the Lakers’ last 12 versus a team with a losing straight-up record.

The Thunder scored 101 during the first of two games with the Clippers. They put up 105 on Thursday night and will be playing in back-to-back games and their third game in four nights on Friday. I don’t expect the Thunder to be fresh and given their recent offensive struggles, I don’t expect them to score much against the Lakers.

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles defense has looked good since they overhauled their roster at the trade deadline. With Anthony Davis healthy and the likes of Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt proving to be very effective on defense, the Lakers have allowed more than 110 points only twice in their last 10 games played.

Los Angeles’ last four home games have stayed under the total with no opponent scoring more than 114 points against them during that span. I expect the Lakers to play good defense in this low-scoring game.

Prediction: Under 230.5

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