OKC Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans 04/12/2023 NBA Play-in Tournament Odds and Prediction

The OKC Thunder and New Orleans Pelicans meet at the Smoothie King Center on Wednesday night in the second play-in tournament game in the Western Conference.

The Thunder finished 10th in the Western Conference with a 40-42 SU record. OKC wasn’t’ supposed to be here but they have accelerated their rebuild and look to take it further by getting the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

The Pelicans played without Zion since the start of 2023. Despite that, they battled back and found there was to be the 9th seed. New Orleans finished the regular season with a 42-40 SU mark and was 27-14 SU at home.

Last Tuesday night, the Los Angeles Lakers survived the Minnesota Timberwolves 108-102 in OT to advance as the 7th seed in the West. With Minnesota waiting, the Thunder and Pelicans hope to live for another day.

OKC Thunder

The Thunder went 4-6 in their last 10 games played but enter this play-in tournament game with some momentum as they won their final two regular-season assignments. In their final regular season assignment, OKC defeated the Memphis Grizzlies 115-100.

They are a very young team with no player above 30 years old. Despite their youth, they were able to get to the Top 10 and now can take it further. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the best player on the team and he is supported by the likes of Josh Giddey, Lu Dort, and Jalen Williams.

OKC is averaging 117.5 points per game while shooting 46.5% from the floor and 36.5% from the field. The Thunder conceded 116.4 points per game while allowing opponents to shoot 47.4% from the field and 35.8% from deep. OKC is averaging just 12.5 turnovers per game, the 6th fewest in the entire league.

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans went 9-3 SU in their last 12 games played to finish in the 9th spot. They did this while playing without star Zion Williamson since the start of 2023. Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum have risen to the occasion to lead the Pelicans in the absence of Williamson. Both have averaged over 20 points per game this season.

They ended the 2022-23 regular season above the .500 mark at 42-40. This accomplishment proves the depth and toughness of this team which would make them a difficult opponent in the postseason.

New Orleans averaged 114.4 points per game during the regular season, 15th in the league. The Pelicans shot 48% from the floor and 36.4% from deep. The Pelicans rank 9th in scoring defense, and allowed just 112.5 points per game this season. They had the best three-point defense as they allowed opponents to shoot just 33.9% from deep

Thunder vs Pelicans SU Prediction

The Thunder are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games played against the Pelicans. OKC is 3-1 SU in their last four games played in New Orleans.

OKC Thunder SU trends:

• The Thunder are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games played.
• The Thunder are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games played on the road.
• The Thunder are 5-15 SU in their last 20 games played in April.
• The Thunder are 10-16 SU in their last 26 road games against the Western Conference.
• The Thunder are 12-20 SU in their last 32 games played as betting underdogs against the Western Conference.

New Orleans Pelicans SU trends:

• The Pelicans are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games played.
• The Pelicans are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played at home.
• The Pelicans are 13-5 SU in their last 18 Wednesday games.
• The Pelicans are 19-9 SU in their last 28 games as a favorite against the Western Conference.
• The Pelicans are 19-7 SU in their last 26 home games played against the Western Conference.

The Pelicans learned to win without Zion Williamson and right now, it’s a good thing that they have because it looks like they will be playing without him on Wednesday night. Williamson suffered a right hamstring injury last January 2 and has not seen action ever since. His recovery period has exceeded the original date by three months and it looks like he’s not coming back anytime soon.

Despite Zion’s absence, the Pelicans finished the regular season strong, losing just three times in their last 12 games played. With a strong finishing kick, they ended up 9th in the Western Conference team standings.

Without Zion, New Orleans will rely on Brandon Ingram and his 24.7 points per game. He will be ably assisted by veteran guard C.J. McCollum who is putting up 20.9 points per game this year. However, they will have to play better than they did during their regular season finale where they lost to the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Thunder in the playoff hunt is as impressive as any story in the NBA this year. The Thunder posted a 46-108 record combined during the previous two seasons. They lost No. 2 pick Chet Holmgren eve before the current season started. Despite those, they finished with a 40-42 regular season record.

OKC is led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who is putting up 31.4 points per game this season and has developed into an All-Star player. Supporting SGA are impressive young talents like Josh Giddey, Lu Dort, and rookie Jalen Williams who was the 12th pick of the last NBA Draft.

New Orleans won three out of the four regular-season games between these two teams. However, the Thunder won their most recent meeting, 110-96, in New Orleans last March 11th. The Pelicans have the Thunder’s number here. With the more experienced players who have appeared in the postseason before, give me the home team to win the game.

Prediction: New Orleans Pelicans

Thunder vs Pelicans ATS Prediction

The Thunder are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games played against the Pelicans. Oklahoma City is also 6-0 ATS in their last six games played in New Orleans.

OKC Thunder ATS trends:

• The Thunder are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
• The Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
• The Thunder are 17-6-3 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.
• The Thunder are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games playing on 2 days’ rest.
• The Thunder are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Thunder are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Thunder are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Thunder are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games versus a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• The Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Wednesday games.
• The Thunder are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

New Orleans Pelicans

• The Pelicans are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
• The Pelicans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
• The Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing straight-up record.
• The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.
• The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Pelicans are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• The Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• The Pelicans are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Pelicans are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Pelicans are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Pelicans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 2 days’ rest.

These teams played four times during the regular season and the Pelicans went 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in those games. OKC went 45-34-3 ATS this season but late in the season, they struggled to cover the betting spread. OKC covered just once in their last six games as betting underdogs.

The Pelicans have adjusted their game and have found ways to win without Zion Williamson since the start of 2023. They went 6-3-1 ATS over their last 10 games played and two of their ATS losses were as betting underdogs. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in their last four games against an opponent with a losing record.

I love OKC for being here but I think that this is where the road ends for them the Pelican may be without Zion but with the likes of Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum taking charge, they should be able to produce better offense to beat the Thunder.

Prediction: Pelicans -5.5

Thunder vs Pelicans Over/Under Prediction

The under is 6-4 in the last 10 games played between these two teams. The under is also 3-1 in their last four meetings played in New Orleans.

OKC Thunder over/under trends:

• The under is 4-1 in the Thunder’s last 5 road games.
• The under is 4-1 in the Thunder’s last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 7-2 in the Thunder’s last 9 games against a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The over is 5-1 in the Thunder’s last 6 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.

New Orleans Pelicans over/under trends:

• The under is 20-7 in the Pelicans’ last 27 overall.
• The under is 4-1 in the Pelicans’ last 5 Wednesday games.
• The under is 7-2 in the Pelicans’ last 9 games following an ATS loss.
• The under is 7-2 in the Pelicans’ last 9 games following a straight-up loss.
• The under is 17-5 in the Pelicans’ last 22 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 18-6 in the Pelicans’ last 24 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 19-7 in the Pelicans’ last 26 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 19-7 in the Pelicans’ last 26 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 19-7 in the Pelicans’ last 26 games playing on 2 days’ rest.
• The under is 8-1 in the Pelicans’ last 9 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

The under went 3-1 in the four regular-season meetings between these two teams. They combined to score an average of 217 points per game in those meetings, including games where they scored an aggregate of 253 points. Take that OT game away from the list and these two combined to average a mere 205 points on the average.

The Pelicans scored fewer than 110 points in four out of their last 7 games played. The Thunder have scored below 115 points in half of their last 10 assignments. These teams have combined to score an average of 213.6 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. Give me these teams to hit the under.

Prediction: Under 227.5

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