Tennessee Titans vs Buffalo Bills 09/19/2022 NFL Odds and Prediction

The Tennessee Titans look for their first win when they visit the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football.

The Titans saw their Super Bowl odds tumble after suffering a 21-20 upset loss to the New York Giants in Week 1 despite dominating the possession time. Ryan Tannehill put the Titans in a position to steal the game in the end but kicker Randy Bullock missed a 47-yard FG attempt to allow the G-men to escape with the win.

Meanwhile, the Bills looked good as advertised when they pounded the defending Super Bowl Champions Los Angeles Rams 31-10 in the NFL 2022 kickoff game. Josh Allen threw 3 TD passes and rushed for one to make up for two interceptions. The Buffalo defense looked impressive in shutting down the Rams and limiting them to only 10 points.

Tennessee Titans

Tennessee opened with a 13-0 lead last week but allowed Saquon Barkley to run wild and steal the game 21-20. Ryan Tannehill threw for 266 yards with 2 TD passes and he put the Titans in a position to win the game in the end but kicker Randy Bullock muffed a 47-yard FG attempt as the Titans opened the 2022 season at 0-1.

Derrick Henry looked healthy and rushed for 82 yards on 21 carries. Without Julio Jones and AJ Brown, Tannehill did a good job of spreading the wealth, throwing a completion to nine receivers. Rookie Kyle Phillips had six catches for 66 yards to lead the team while Robert Woods only had one catch. RB Dontrell Hilliard rushed for two TDs last week.

Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills entered the season as Super Bowl LVII betting favorites and now they are even bigger favorites after a dominant 31-10 Week 1 win over the Los Angeles Rams. Josh Allen looked every bit the preseason MVP favorite with 297 passing yards and 3 TDs while also rushing for 56 yards with one rushing TD.

Stefon Diggs caught 8 passes for 122 yards while Gabe Davis added four catches for 88 yards. Buffalo went 9-10 on third down attempts and they amassed 413 yards of total offense despite Allen throwing 2 INTs. The improved Bills defense had seven tackles for loss and 16 QB hits. They picked off three passes and held the Rams to just 243 yards of total offense in total domination.

Who Wins?

The Titans are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played against the Bills. Buffalo is however 8-4 SU in their last 12 home games against Tennessee.

The Titans are:

• 10-4 SU in their last 14 games played.

• 4-6 SU in their last 10 games played on the road.

• 6-1 SU in their last seven September games.

The Bills are :

• 5-1 SU in their last six games played.

• 14-3 SU in their last 17 games played at home.

• 5-2 SU in their last seven September games.

The Titans were off to a good start last week and it looked like they were going to ride Derrick Henry in the second half to open their season with a victory. Instead, it was Saquon Barkley who delivered the biggest Week 1 performance by a running back and the New York Giants rallied to beat the Titans.

Ryan Tannehill played well too in that game as the Titans’ QB threw for 266 passing yards with two TD passes. Tannehill even put the Titans in a position to win late in the game. However, kicker Randy Bullock missed a 47-yard field goal attempt that allowed the Giants to escape with a 21-20 upset win.

Meanwhile, the Bills played as advertised in their season opener against the defending champions Los Angeles Rams. Josh Allen played like the preseason MVP favorite that he was, throwing for 297 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 56 yards and scoring one TD on the ground. Allen did throw two interceptions but the Bills’ defense came through in the end.

Buffalo’s Super Bowl odds further shortened after the win although Patrick Mahomes caught up with Allen in the MVP betting boards. Still, the Bills looked impressive in Week 1 and they will need to keep that intensity going against a Tennessee team looking to get on the board with a win. Buffalo has had the longest rest this past week and that could be an issue here.

The Titans have beaten the Bill in the previous two seasons. Two years ago, Buffalo was at 4-0 and ended up losing 42-16 as three-point favorites in Week 5. Last year, they lost 34-31 as six-point road favorites. No question that Tennessee is a dangerous opponent that cannot be overlooked. However, this could be Buffalo’s season and at least early on, they should look good.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills

Titans vs Bills ATS Prediction

The Titans are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games played against the Bills. Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in their last six games played in Buffalo. The underdog is also 10-1 ATS in their last 11 head-to-head meetings between these two teams.

The Titans are:

• 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played overall.

• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss.

• 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.

• 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.

• 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on turf.

• 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

• 22-48-2 ATS in their last 72 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

• 11-25-1 ATS in their last 37 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

• 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September.

• 2-5 ATS in their last 7 versus the AFC.

• 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games against the AFC East.

• 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

The Bills are:

• 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games played overall.

• 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.

• 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

• 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.

• 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games on turf.

• 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a losing road record.

• 8-1-2 ATS against a team with a losing record.

• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.

• 10-3-2 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

• 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

• 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win.

• 12-5-2 ATS in their last 19 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

• 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight-up win of more than 14 points.

• 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 Monday games.

Tennessee will ride the Derrick Henry train again on Monday and that is going to eat up plenty of the time on the clock. Buffalo’s fearsome pass rush is going to make Mike Vrabel even go to Henry even more in this game or else Ryan Tannehill won’t be able to get it going.

The Bills have an incredible offensive machine anchored around Josh Allen but if the Titans can limit their possessions by running the ball, the Bills still have the defense to win this game. There is no doubt that Buffalo is the much better team but Tennessee has the weapons to drag this game into a tight-knit contest. I expect the Bills to win this game outright but I don’t think it will be by double digits.

Prediction: Titans +10

Titans vs Bills Over/Under

The total has gone over in six out of the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these two teams. The over is 5-3 in the last eight meetings between these two teams in Buffalo.

Tennessee Titans over/under trends:

• Under is 6-1 in the Titans’ last 7 games overall.

• Under is 4-1 in the Titans’ last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• Under is 4-1 in the Titans’ last 5 games following an ATS loss.

• Under is 4-1 in the Titans’ last 5 versus AFC.

• Under is 7-3 in the Titans’ last 10 games in September.

• Over is 12-3 in the Titans’ last 15 road games.

• Over is 5-1 in the Titans’ last 6 Monday games.

• Over is 7-2 in the Titans’ last 9 games as a road underdog.

• Over is 11-4-1 in the Titans’ last 16 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

• Over is 20-8 in the Titans’ last 28 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

Buffalo Bills over/under trends:

• Over is 9-1 in the Bills’ last 10 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

• Over is 8-1 in the Bills’ last 9 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• Over is 9-2 in the Bills’ last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

• Over is 4-1 in the Bills’ last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

• Over is 4-1 in the Bills’ last 5 games following a straight-up win of more than 14 points.

• Over is 6-2 in the Bills’ last 8 games following an ATS win.

• Over is 5-2 in the Bills’ last 7 games played against the AFC.

• Over is 7-3 in the Bills’ last 10 Week 2 games played.

• Over is 19-9-1 in the Bills’ last 29 games following a straight-up win.

• Under is 4-0 in the Bills’ last 4 home games versus a team with a losing road record.

• Under is 6-2 in the Bills’ last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.

• Under is 5-2 in the Bills’ last 7 games as a favorite.

• Under is 9-4 in the Bills’ last 13 games in September.

Tannehill is coming off a good game but doesn’t expect the Titans to try and outgun Josh Allen here. Instead, look for Tennessee to ride Derrick Henry and let him pound the rock so they can dominate the time of possession and limit Allen from getting the opportunity to score. That was the Rams’ mistake last week and look what happened to them.

Tennessee won the possession time battle against the Giants and had a chance to win the game in the end. Sure, the Bills are much better than the Giants but if the Titans can dictate the time, then they will have a chance of winning this game.

The Bills’ defense looked great in limiting the Rams to only 10 points last week. They should have no issues stopping a Titans team that scored only 20 points against the Giants in Week 1. Of course, I expect a better offensive effort from Tennessee but the Bills’ defense should be able to contain them.

Prediction: Under 51

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