Toronto Raptors vs Golden State Warriors Game 6 Odds, Preview, and Prediction

The Toronto Raptors try to close out the Golden State Warriors in Game 6 of the 2019 NBA Finals.

The Raptors came close to winning the NBA title in Game 5 after leading by six points with just over two minutes remaining in the game. But the defending champions refused to go away, even with Kevin Durant suffering an Achilles injury in the second quarter. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson took turns in hitting clutch three-point baskets that gave the champs another lease on life. The series moves back to Oakland where the Warriors will play the final game at Oracle Arena. The team will be moving to a new venue in San Francisco starting next season.

Three-Point Shooting

The Warriors made 20 three-pointers in Game 5 and they shot the ball very well from behind the three-point arc. The Dubs were 47.5% from three ball in Game 5 and it marked the first time in this Finals series that they shot better than 40% from three-point range. None were bigger than the three consecutive three-point baskets sank by Steph Curry and Klay Thompson down the stretch which erased a six-point Raptors lead in the end game.

It was surprising for the Warriors to shoot that well from downtown with Stephen Curry shooting just 5-14 from behind the three-point arc in Game 5. But Curry finished the game with 31 points as he continues to play his best against the Raptors. The former two-time MVP is averaging 29.7 points per game against Toronto, his highest career scoring average against any NBA franchise. Without Kevin Durant the rest of the way Curry will have to continue to score big against the Raptors and this time around, he needs to shoot the three-ball better for his team to have a fighting chance of sending the series to a Game 7.

Klay Thompson hit two of the big three-pointers in crunch time. He finished with 26 points on 7-13 shooting from three ball. Draymond Green barely missed another triple-double with 10 points, 10 rebounds, and 8 assists while DeMarcus Cousins added 14 points and 6 rebounds on 6-8 shooting. Golden State will also need Andre Iguodala to step up. Iggy shot just 2-7 for 5 points in Game 5.

Winning At The Oracle Arena

The Toronto Raptors’ offense has usually slowed down on the road during this postseason. But the Raptors have won the first two game at the Warriors’ Oracle Arena in this series, taking Games 3 and 4 while shooting 47% from the field and 38% from the three-point territory. In Game 5, Toronto shot just 8-32 from behind the three-point area and that led to their demise. In the Raptors’ two losses of this 2019 NBA Finals, they have shot below 30% from downtown. That means that if they want to close out the champs, they must be able to shoot well from behind the three-point area.

Kawhi Leonard is having a sensational 2019 postseason and is playing at a very high level in the Finals. The Klaw is averaging 29.8 points, 10.6 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.2 blocks and 2.0 steals per game to lead the Raptors. The former Finals MVP had 26 points, 12 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals and 2 blocks in Game 5. However, he shot just 9-27 from the floor in Game 5. For the Raptors to win, Leonard must shoot better from the floor as well.

Pascal Siakam struggled with just 12 points on 6-15 shooting while Danny Green shot 0-4 from behind the three-point area in Game 5. Likewise, Fred VanVleet only scored 11 points and was 3-7 from the floor although he was 3-6 from three balls. Marc Gasol had 17 points and 8 boards and Game 5 and Serge Ibaka added 15 points and 6 boards for Toronto.

Who Wins?

The Raptors are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played. Toronto is 3-1 SU in their last four games played on the road. The Warriors are also 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played. Golden State is 2-2 SU in their last four games played at home. Head to head, the Raptors are 6-3 SU in their last nine games against the Warriors. Toronto has also won the last three games played at the Oracle Arena.

The Raptors are 14-5 SU in their last 19 games against Western Conference teams. The Warriors are 6-3 SU in their last nine games against opponents from the Eastern Conference. The Raptors are 6-4 SU on the road this postseason. The Dubs are also 6-4 SU in 10 postseason games at the Oracle Arena this postseason.

The Warriors lost Kevin Durant for good, at least in this series. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson must carry the load again for the Dubs. Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala must come up big as well. For Toronto, three-point shooting could be the key. They need to shoot well from downtown as well as defend the Warriors from deep. Danny Green must hit his three-pointers in this game.

Man for man, the Warriors are down. But this being the last game at the Oracle Arena, expect the Warriors to come out firing from deep. I expect Golden State to be at an emotional high not just because of the Oracle Arena situation but because they will rally behind Kevin Durant’s heroic Game 5 effort. I’m picking the Golden State Warriors to beat the Toronto Raptors on 6/13/19.

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Other Bets To Make

The Raptors are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played. Toronto is 3-1 ATS in their last four games played. The Warriors are just 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10 games played and theDubs are 1-3 ATS in their last four games played at home. Head to head, the Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last six games at the Oracle Arena.

The Raptors are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games against opponents with a winning record of at least .600, 3-1-1 ATS in this Finals series, and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. The Warriors are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 home games against teams with a winning record of at least .600 but 1-4 ATS in their last four home games and 1-3-2 ATS in their last six games overall. Golden State has covered just three out of 10 games at the Oracle Arena in this postseason. The Raptors are 4-1-1 ATS in their six games against the Warriors and 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Oakland. I pick the Dubs to win another very close game but will go with Toronto’s better ATS record here. Prediction: Raptors +3

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The over is 5-4-1 in Toronto’s last 10 games played. The over and under are 2-2 in Toronto’s last four games played on the road. The over is also 5-4-1 in Golden State Warriors’ last 10 games played. The over and under are also 2-2 in the Dubs’ last four games at home. Head to head, the over is 5-4-1 in the last 10 games between these two teams.

The under has hit in seven out of the last 10 road playoff games for the Raptors. In those “under” games, the total has averaged just 207.3 points per game. The total has gone under in 8 out of the last 11 games played by the Warriors against Atlantic Division teams. The under is also 4-2 in the Dubs’ last six games played in the month of June. The last two games of this series have gone under 211 and with the stakes higher here, I expect another low-scoring game. Prediction: Under 211.5

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