UCLA vs Gonzaga NCAA Final Four Odds and Pick

The UCLA Bruins take their giant-killing ways against the best team in the nation in the Gonzaga Bulldogs. These two teams will square off in the Final Four on Saturday at the Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

The 22-9 Bruins have shocked the world by going from the First Four to the Final Four, taking down no. 1 Michigan in the previous round to advance to the semifinals of March Madness. Their “reward” however is a date against the Gonzaga Bulldogs who are two wins away from achieving a perfect season.

UCLA Bruins

The UCLA Bruins were losers of four consecutive games heading to the NCAA tournament. But the Bruins have stunned the March Madness field by winning five straight games, including four where they were outright underdogs. UCLA is the first double-digit seed to reach the Final Four since Vanderbilt in 2011. This marks the 19th time that UCLA advances to the Final Four and they have won a total of 11 national titles.

Leading UCLA is Kentucky transfer Johnny Juzang who scored 28 points, more than half of the team’s output, in their 51-49 win over Michigan. Juzang is averaging 21.5 points per game in the tournament and if the Zags want to shut down the UCLA offense, they have to start by containing Juzang.

What are the Moneyline Odds?

UCLA

+725

Gonzaga

-1150

Odds from BetOnline as of 04/02/2021

Gonzaga Bulldogs

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are on the brink of immortality. The number 1 team in the nation is just two wins away from the first perfect season since Indiana in 1976. Dating back to last season, the Zags have won 34 consecutive games and their current streak of 27 games with double-digit wins is an NCAA Division I record. They have won their first four tournament games by an average winning margin of 24 points and have covered every game thus far in the tournament.

While Juzang leads the UCLA offense, Gonzaga’s offense is led by their powerhouse trio of Corey Kispert, Jalen Suggs, and Drew Timme. Timme scored 23 points in their last win against USC while Suggs had a brilliant all-around effort of 18 points, 10 rebounds, and 8 assists. Meanwhile, Kispert added 18 points and 8 boards as Gonzaga heads to the Final Four for only the second time in school history.

Who Wins?

UCLA is 5-0 SU in their last five games played. The Bruins are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games against the West Coast Conference, and 4-10 SU in their last 14 games when playing away from home on a Saturday. Gonzaga is 20-0 SU in their last 20 games played. The Bulldogs are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games played against the Pac-12 conference. Head to head, the Zags have won two out of the last three meetings between these two teams.

Gonzaga is two wins away from a perfect season and they have looked unbeatable this season. Their last 27 wins have been by double digits and their four NCAA tournament victories have come by an aggregate winning margin of 96 points. They have covered every tournament game thus far, including a 17 point win in a game where they were favored by single digits.

This is like a Davis vs Goliath matchup really. I know UCLA has been on a Cinderella run but remember that even Cinderella ran out of luck when the clock struck 12. Gonzaga has been the best team in the nation this season, and they have the best program in the last couple of years. This may not be a one-sided game as the oddsmakers think. But there’s no doubt that the better team wins this.

Prediction: Gonzaga Bulldogs

Other Bets To Make

The Bruins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games played overall. UCLA is 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing 50 or fewer points in their previous game, 4-0 ATS in their last four games after an ATS win, 5-0 ATS in their last five games as the betting underdog, 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs in the NCAA tournament, 5-0 ATS in their last five games against an opponent with a winning percentage of over .600, and 5-0 ATS in their last five games played against an opponent with a winning SU record. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played. Gonzaga is 5-1 ATS in their last six games as the betting favorites, 5-1 ATS in their last six Saturday games, 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games, 4-0 ATS in their last four NCAA tournament games, 4-0 ATS in their last four games against an opponent with a winning SU record, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after an ATS win.

What are the Spread Odds?

UCLA

+14 (-105)

Gonzaga

-14 (-115)

Odds from BetOnline as of 04/02/2021

Gonzaga looks unbeatable right now and they have won their first four NCAA tournament games by an average winning margin of 24 points but 14 points look too much to give against a team that is playing as well as UCLA is right now. The Bruins have sent home two Top 2 seeds already and while I’m not expecting a third here, I think that they won’t be overwhelmed by the Zags reputation and record. This is the Final Four and teams give it all they got. UCLA may not win this game but they will put up a good fight. Give me the plus points and the underdogs.

Prediction: UCLA +14

The total has gone under in six out of the last eight NCAA tournament games played by UCLA. The under is also 6-1 in their last seven Saturday games, 4-1 in their last five games after an SU win, and 4-1 in their last five games against an opponent with a winning percentage of at least .600. The over is 7-3 in their last 10 games after allowing 50 or fewer points in their previous game and 9-4 in their last 13 games as underdogs in the NCAA tournament. The total has gone over in 39 out of the last 57 games played by the Zags. The over is also 38-18 in their last 56 games as the betting favorite, 12-5 in their last 17 neutral site games, 12-5 in their last 17 neutral site games as favorites, 20-6 in their last 26 Saturday games, and 5-2 in their last seven games after an ATS win.

Gonzaga is a scoring machine that averaged 91.6 points per game during the regular season and it has scored at least 83 points in every tournament game that they have played so far. They have hit a total of at least 148 points in their last five games played. Meanwhile, UCLA is a terrific defensive team that has limited three out of their last four opponents to 62 or fewer points. But obviously, they have not played an offense s good as Gonzaga and when their defense isn’t going to do much they will have to score more points to keep up with the Zags. Look for a high-scoring game here.

Prediction: Over 145

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