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UFC 230: Cormier vs Lewis Odds, Preview and Prediction

The UFC heavyweight title will be on the line as champion Daniel Cormier faces the #2 ranked heavyweight in Derrick Lewis at the main event of UFC 230 on Saturday, November 3rd at New York’s Madison Square Garden.

Cormier is only the second fighter in UFC history (after Conor McGregor) to hold two world titles at the same time. He achieved that feat at UFC 226 last July 8 when he knocked out Stipe Miocic to become the UFC heavyweight champion. He will be defending the heavyweight belt for the first time against a surprise opponent.

Derrick Lewis has every right to get a title shot because after all, he is the #2 ranked contender in the division. But the timing of the bout is what surprised many, if not all. For one, this was a hastily booked main event, done in less than a month’s notice, because the UFC needed a main event for their return to the Big Apple. More surprisingly, the choice of opponent was surprising because Lewis had just fought Anthony Volkov at UFC 229 last October 7th.

But perhaps that Volkov fight was what earned the Black Beast this title fight. Lewis’ dramatic knockout win over Drago was one for the ages. And then of course, who could forget his epic post fight interview where he took off his shorts because “his balls was hot”. Classic Derrick Lewis. Less than a week after that win, it was announced that Lewis would face Cormier in the main event of UFC 230. Everyone was shocked, including Lewis himself. At the right price though, the Black Beast could not say no and so we have a fight.

My Balls Was Hot

Derrick Lewis is a fan favorite in the UFC not only because of his brutal knockouts but also because he says what he wants say in his interviews. In his most recent post fight interview, everyone recalls Lewis taking off his shorts and telling Joe Rogan “his balls was hot.”. Well, that line may have probably earned the Black Beast his spot at Saturday’s main event.

To say that Lewis’ win over Alexander Volkov at UFC 229 was dramatic is an understatement. Hurt multiple times, gassed and oustruck 40-133 by Volkov, Lewis hung on, dug deep and then landed a big right hand in the final 30 seconds of the fight that knocked out Volkov. It was one of the most spectacular victories you’ll ever see in the UFC and because of that, Lewis became UFC 229’s biggest winner.

Lewis is easy to describe and not difficult to analyze. He’s a true heavyweight who needs to cut weight to make the 265 pound weight limit. The 33-year old from Houston only knows one way to fight and that is to punch his way to victory. 18 of his 21 wins have been by knockout and Lewis possesses one of the most destructive hands in the business. Because of his size, he gasses often. He doesn’t have good cardio but has tons of fighting heart. It also helps that he has a granite chin that makes him withstand punishment and take his fights to the trenches

What’re the Odds?

Daniel Cormier vs Derrick Lewis
5 RD Main Event, UFC heavyweight championship
Moneyline Odds: Cormier -675, Lewis +500
Odds from Sportsbetting.ag as of 11/2/18

An All-Time Great

For a long time, people made fun of Daniel Cormier because he was the light heavyweight champion but could not beat the best light heavyweight of this generation. Cormier’s MMA career has always been linked to his rival Jon Jones. Jones beat him twice, both in world title fights, but Jones’ off octagon antics have ruined his career. From brushes with the law and violations of the UFC’s anti-drug policy, Jones lost his title to Cormier (but not inside the octagon) twice. But after Cormier knocked out Miocic, he finally earned his rank as an all-time great.

DC is 39 years old as has admitted that he is planning to retire in March 2019. Because of his plans, Cormier has stated that he will be fighting only twice before calling it a career. The UFC is expected to match Cormier against former champion Brock Lesnar sometime next year when Lesnar is eligible to fight again. Many were wondering why Lewis got the shot and not Miocic in a rematch. With DC in line for a Lesnar bout, he can’t afford to lose his belt to Miocic. Instead, he will have to defend it against a freestyle fighter who just fought 27 days ago.

Cormier is one of the best wrestlers to ever set foot inside the UFC octagon. Being a former collegiate wrestling elite, Cormier uses his supreme wrestling to dominate his opponents. Cormier has also developed a very good striking game which was on display against Miocic. He isn’t known for his punching power but he’s produced back to back knockout wins over Volkan Oezdemir and Miocic.

Prediction

Barring any untoward incident, Daniel Cormier is expected to win this fight, keep his belt and set up a showdown with Brock Lesnar. However, when you’re fighting a guy like Derrick Lewis, it’s never over until the fat lady sings. You can ask Alexander Volkov that because Drago was 21 seconds away from victory when Lewis connected a massive right hand.

Common sense tells us that Daniel Cormier is going to use his wrestling here. Sure, we know DC was a heavyweight before he fought at 205 pounds so no question, he’s used to fighting bigger guys before. But this isn’t just a big guy. This is the Black Beast who may be the heaviest fighter in the UFC right now. I mean this is a guy who needs to cut weight to make 265 pounds. With that kind of weight, Lewis is never easy to handle on the ground. Not only does he have a couple of moves here and there, the mere wrestling with a man his size and weight tires out opponents. And Cormier, as good as he is on the ground, could fall into that trap.

Cormier isn’t going to try to win this fight on his feet. Not with the kind of punching power that Derrick Lewis has. Sure, DC is going to try and strike from a distance and land his jabs and combinations but why risk getting nailed by a hammer from Derrick Lewis? No question, Daniel Cormier is more skilled on his feet and on the ground against Derrick Lewis. There is no question that Derrick Lewis’ best chance to win this fight is via knockout. But remember that Lewis beat a cautious Francis Ngannou to a decision. DC can’t be too cautious here

Betting Prediction

All things considered, this is DC’s fight to win. But this is the heavyweight division where one punch can change everything so I’m not counting Derrick Lewis out until that final horn sounds. I just don’t think Lewis has enough output to win this fight if it goes to the scorecards That is, if it does Cormier will try to tire out the Black Beast but must be careful that he doesn’t get tired first. I would love if Derrick Lewis pulls the upset but I think DC wins this one.

We’re picking Daniel Cormier to beat Derrick Lewis. At -675 though, it may be better to look at the other bets for this fight.

Place Your Bet Here

Over/Under

The over/under line for this title bout has been set at 1.5 rounds.

What’re the Odds?

Daniel Cormier vs Derrick Lewis
Over/Under Odds: Over 1.5 +125, Under 1.5 -155
Odds from Sportsbetting.ag as of 11/2/18

Betting Prediction

Sure, this is a heavyweight bout, Cormier has stopped his last two opponents within 1.5 rounds and Lewis has freak knockout power. However, if you take a look at their fight resumes, these are not quick finishers. Cormier is known more as a grinder and Lewis is known to have a solid chin. I’m even feeling that this fight is going the distance. But even if not, this should go over the 2:30 mark of round 2. Lewis is too durable and Cormier doesn’t have the one punch knockout to stop Lewis.

Personally, this is the best bet to make. Prediction: Over 1.5

Place Your Bet Here

Method Of Victory

Cormier is the favorite here and most likely, he’s going to win this fight but at -675? I think that’s too pricey. However, if you add a method of victory to Daniel Cormier’s win, you’ll get much more tempting odds:

What’re the Odds?

Daniel Cormier vs Derrick Lewis
Method of Victory:
Daniel Cormier via KO,TKO or Disqualification         -105
Daniel Cormier via Submission                                 +125
Daniel Cormier via Decision or Technical Decision +1200
Derrick Lewis via KO,TKO or Disqualification            +550
Derrick Lewis via Submission                                   +3300
Derrick Lewis via Decision or Technical Decision     +1200
Odds from Betway as of 11/2/18

Betting Prediction

We know Cormier is going to win. Let’s just pick a method to get better value on him. Of DC’s 21 MMA wins, 10 are by knockout, 7 by decision and 4 by submission. DC has won his last two bouts by knockout and he’s won majority of his fights by KO.

Prediction: Daniel Cormier via KO,TKO or Disqualification -105. I wouldn’t discount the probability that this goes five rounds too. Really, I do. With DC by decision at +1200, I might take the plus money there too.

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Chris Blain