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UFC 238 is set to go down on June 8, 2019, at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois. We know that the main event of UFC 238 is the UFC bantamweight title bout between Henry Cejudo and Marlon Moraes. We already talked about that bout in a previous article.
After the main event was announced, the UFC came up with a bigger announcement when it booked two exciting fan favorites in Donald Cerrone and Tony Ferguson to an electrifying lightweight bout. Also in the undercard, as the co-main event is the UFC women’s flyweight title bout between Valentina Shevchenko and Jessica Eye.
Let’s take a look at those two bouts right now:
Donald Cerrone vs Tony Ferguson
Donald Cerrone is one of the most popular fighters in the UFC. He has one of the UFC’s busiest schedules and he never turns down fights. This future Hall-of-Famer owns the record for most wins in the UFC with 23 and most finishes at 16. What he doesn’t have though is a world title in his trophy case and that’s what he is still fighting for at the age of 36.
Cowboy has a record of 36-11-0-1 with 10 knockouts and 17 submissions. He stands 6-1 with a reach of 73 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. After losing four out of his last six fights at welterweight, Cerrone returned to 155 pounds and has won three fights impressively. Cowboy has earned two Fight of the Night and one Performance of the Night bonuses in his last three bouts.
Cerrone is a world-class striker who can throw six-punch combinations. His leg kicks are lethal weapons and his submission game is second to none. Despite having four knockout losses, he is considered to have one of the most durable fighters around. He has a vast fighting experience that helps him adjust during fights.
Ferguson has not fought since October 2018 when he finished former lightweight champion Anthony Pettis at UFC 229. Since then, Ferguson suffered personal issues and was stripped of his interim lightweight title. But after seeking help, he is back and ready to fight again. But to earn a crack at the lightweight title, he must face a rejuvenated Donald Cerrone.
The 35-year old El Cucuy stands 5-11 and has a reach of 76 inches while fighting out of the orthodox style. Ferguson has a record of 24-3 with 11 knockouts and 8 submissions. He has not lost since 2013 and has won a remarkable 11 fights in a row with 8 violent stoppages during that period.
Ferguson is one of the most creative fighters in the business. He is very unique in his style and is very difficult to prepare for. His striking is dynamic and he has punching power. His elbows and kicks are also lethal weapons and he has incredible stamina and recovery. On the ground, he has very dangerous submission moves and a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt under Eddie Bravo.
Who Wins?
Ferguson opened as a -190 UFC betting favorite in many sportsbooks while Cowboy came back at +165. But barely after a week, the lines have moved closer. And that’s just a testament of how much a 50-50 fight this is going to be.
On their feet, both of these men are elite strikers and perhaps two of the greatest strikers we’ve ever seen. Cerrone loves to add leg kicks to his striking arsenal while Ferguson includes his elbows in his fight recipe. When it comes to volume, Ferguson lands 5.51 significant strikes per minute while Cerrone is right up there at 4.28. El Cucuy has better strike defense at 63% against Cowboy’s 54%.
Both these men are Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black-belters. Cerrone prefers to fight on his feet but if he is taken down, he is dangerous on his back or if he gets the top position. Cowboy is excellent with the chokes and he loves to grab the arm as well. On the other hand, Ferguson is more creative with a Von Flue choke and three D’Arce Chokes to his credit.
The worry with Ferguson is that he hasn’t fought since October while Cerrone has already fought twice this year. Another concern for Ferguson is what mental shape he is in right now. These are important because one, Cerrone isn’t just an active fighter, he is also a very experienced one. If Ferguson blinks, that may be the only opening Cowboy needs to capitalize on.
I think both men will try to outstrike each other and get the knockout. Both have power but I think it’s Ferguson who has the one-punch knockout power here. I also think that Ferguson’s three-inch reach advantage will be very crucial here. He will need to paw at Cowboy to keep Cerrone’s Super Saiyan combos off.
Although Cerrone has fought at welterweight before, I think it’s Ferguson who is the stronger fighter. I’m looking at Ferguson trying to walk down Cerrone and catching Cowboy with a huge right hand in the middle rounds. I’m picking Tony Ferguson to win by knockout.
Valentina Shevchenko vs Jessica Eye
In the co-main event of UFC 238, Valentina Shevchenko will make the first defense of the UFC women’s flyweight title. Shevchenko won the flyweight belt by defeating Joanna Jedrzejczyk at UFC 231. The Bullet is a multiple-time Muay Thai world champion and is considered the best striker in women’s MMA. She has a record of 16-3 with 4 knockouts and 7 submissions. The 31-year old Shevchenko stands 5-5 with a reach of 67 inches while fighting out of the southpaw stance.
Jessica Eye was on the wrong side of the fence with four consecutive losses as a bantamweight. She dropped to flyweight and her career path has changed. Three straight wins put her in the title picture and now she has earned a title shot against Valentina Shevchenko. Evil Eye has a record of 14-6-0-1 with 3 knockouts and 1 submission. She stands 5-6 with a reach of 66 inches while fighting as an orthodox fighter.
Who Wins?
Jessica Eye is one tough girl and she has never been knocked out in her MMA career with her six losses consisting of a submission defeat and five losses by decision. But while she has the experience of 21 MMA fights, she hasn’t fought a striker in the level of Valentina Shevchenko. The Bullet is a former Muay Thai world champion and I’m not sure if Eye can keep up with her dynamic striking. Shevchenko nearly beat Amanda Nunes at bantamweight and then outstruck Joanna Jedrzejczyk at flyweight.
I think Eye needs to bully Shevchenko because I believe she is the stronger fighter between the two. But I doubt if Valentina will fall into that trap. She is just so smart as a striker. We’ve seen Nunes pin her down but she survived. If Eye plans to take her down, I think the champion is going to win by submission. Needless to say, I’m picking Valentina Shevchenko to win this fight easily. Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko
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