UFC 240: Max Holloway vs Frankie Edgar Betting Prediction and Odds

UFC featherweight champion Max Holloway will take on former lightweight king Frankie Edgar in the main event of UFC 240 on July 27, 2019, at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Canada.

Max “Blessed” Holloway

Max Holloway is the defending UFC featherweight champion. He won the interim belt at UFC 206 unified the title one fight later against Jose Aldo. He stopped Aldo again during their rematch and outclassed then-unbeaten challenger Brian Ortega at UFC 231. Holloway moved up in weight to challenge Dustin Poirier at UFC 236 but was overpowered and defeated via decision by the much bigger and powerful Poirier.

The 27-year old Holloway has an outstanding record 20-4 with 10 knockouts and 2 wins by submission. He is coming off a five-round unanimous decision loss against Dustin Poirier at UFC 236. But because that was a fight for the lightweight title, Holloway is still the featherweight king of the UFC and his 12-fight win streak in the featherweight division is still intact. Blessed stands at 5-11 tall and has a reach of 69 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance.

Holloway is averaging a ridiculous 6.93 significant strikes landed per minute and although he lost against Poirier the last time out, he engaged the lightweight king in a thrilling striking war. Prior to the Poirier bout, Holloway displayed almost flawless striking when he delivered a one-sided beating against BJJ specialist Brian Ortega. Holloway is one of the most conditioned fighters in the business and his striking is as elite as it can get. He throws fluid combinations with power and he also has very good takedown defense.

Frankie “The Answer” Edgar

Frankie Edgar is currently the #4 ranked featherweight in the UFC. Known as The Answer, Edgar is a former UFC lightweight champion. He has challenged twice for the featherweight belt but lost both fights against Jose Aldo. A long-time veteran, Edgar owns wins over former champions  Sean Sherk, Hermes França, B.J. Penn (x3) and Urijah Faber.

Edgar is 5-6 tall with a reach of 68 inches while fighting as an orthodox fighter. The Answer has a record of 23-6-1 with seven knockouts and four wins by submission. The 37-year old last fought at UFC Fight Night 128 in July 2018 where he defeated Cub Swanson by unanimous decision. In his last five bouts, Edgar has two losses against Jose Aldo and Brian Ortega. He is also coming off a torn bicep injury which forced him out of a fight with the Korean Zombie last November.

Edgar is primarily a wrestler who has an aggressive takedown game and a polished grappling attack. The Answer is also powerful and well-conditioned enough to drag a fight to the ground and win it there. He averages 2.47 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands 3.59 strikes per minute. While he isn’t a volume striker, he has a very good striking defense at 70% and absorbs just 2.22 significant strikes per minute.

Who Wins?

This is a classic fight between striker and grappler although Frankie Edgar also has a good stand up game. However, this fight may be at least five years too late for Frankie Edgar and that’s why he is a big UFC betting underdog in this one.  Despite his key wins in the last couple of years, Edgar has failed to win against Jose Aldo and Brian Ortega which are his two biggest fights in the last three years.

Edgar is already past his prime at age 37 and although he proved that he could still go the distance against Jeremy Stephens and Cub Swanson in his last two fights, I’m not sure if he has enough gas to go five rounds against an Energizer bunny like Max Holloway. Holloway loves to push the tempo and overwhelm his opponents with volume striking. What makes Holloway is that he punches with power as well.

There’s no doubt that Edgar will try to take this fight to the ground because it’s where he has the advantage against Max Holloway. But not only does Holloway have good takedown defense on paper at 83%, but he also proved it against arguably the best grappler and submission artist in the featherweight class in Brian Ortega. Holloway defended Ortega’s takedowns beautifully and frustrated the BJJ expert. If Edgar can’t take Holloway down, he’ll probably end up like Ortega.

When it comes to durability, you can’t question Holloway. He survived five rounds of pounding and went toe to toe with the interim lightweight champ, Dustin Poirier. Holloway is a well-conditioned athlete and has a durable chin. If Edgar cant’ take him down nor can he hurt him with his punching power, then he will be at Blessed’s mercy in this bout.

You know that Holloway is going to try and strike his way to victory but none of his last 13 featherweight opponents have been able to stop him. Unless that loss to Poirier took something out of him mentally, then I don’t expect Max to have any trouble winning this fight. Holloway is younger, faster, stronger and can defend Edgar’s ground game well. I’m picking Max Holloway to win this fight by stoppage in the championship rounds. Prediction: Max Holloway

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