Henry Cejudo defends the UFC bantamweight championship against former two-time champion Dominick Cruz at UFC 249 on Saturday night.
Cejudo is the fourth fighter to hold two belts at the same time in the UFC. He gave up the flyweight championship to focus on his new belt. However, his original opponent, Jose Aldo, backed out due to the pandemic. Former champion Cruz took the Brazilian’s spot and now will fight for the first time since December 2016.
Let’s take a look at the match-up and some of the best prop bets available for this gargantuan encounter:
Henry Cejudo is the current UFC bantamweight champion and the former UFC flyweight king too. He is the fourth fighter in UFC history to hold at least two world titles simultaneously. The 33-year old from Los Angeles is a former Olympic gold medalist in freestyle wrestling, achieving the feat in 2008.
Cejudo had a record of 15-2 with seven knockouts and eight wins via decision. Since back to back losses to Demetrious Johnson and Joseph Benavidez, Cejudo has won five straight bouts, three by knockout, and three title fights. He won the UFC flyweight belt by ending Demetrious Johnson’s long reign and in his last fight, he won the vacant UFC bantamweight title.
Triple C stands 5-4 with a reach of 64 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. He lands an average of 3.82 significant strikes per minute at a 44% accuracy. He absorbs 2.73 significant strikes per minute and has a 65% striking defense. Cejudo also completes an average of 2.16 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a 35% takedown accuracy. He also has a 90% takedown defense.
Cejudo is one of the best wrestlers in the UFC, if not the best. But the thing about him is that he has developed into a more balanced fighter. Three out of his last five bouts have ended in a knockout and his improved striking has made him more dangerous. In his last fight, he also showed his toughness. He doesn’t have the size but nobody is questioning his heart and abilities.
Dominick Cruz was the last WEC bantamweight champion and a two-time UFC bantamweight king. After becoming the inaugural UFC bantamweight champion, he successfully defended the belt twice before succumbing to a series of injuries. After being out of action for a long time, he returned in 2016 to win the belt again. He lost the title during his first title defense against Cody Garbrandt.
Cruz stands 5-8 tall and has a reach of 68 inches and is an orthodox fighter. He has a record of 22-2 with 8 knockouts and 1 win via submission. Cruz has not fought since UFC December 207 in December 2016. Overall, he’s fought just four times since the start of 2012.
The Dominator connects on an average of 3.53 significant strikes per minute at a 31% accuracy rate. He gets hit by an average of 2.15 significant strikes per minute and has an impressive 74% striking defense. Cruz also has a terrific takedown offense as he averages 3.17 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 50% completion rate. His 83% takedown defense makes him tough to beat.
Cruz is one of the most gifted fighters we’ve ever seen. He gets in and out quickly and can land his strikes without being caught. He also has excellent wrestling and he has takedowns to stem the tide if his striking isn’t working. However, Cruz has not fought since 2016 and he’s fought just four times in the last eight years. Sure, he was spectacular in his 2016 comeback but that was four years ago already.
I think that the main issue here is Dominick Cruz’s form. There is no doubt that he is one of the best fighters ever in the UFC, when healthy. But not only do we not know how healthy he is, the fact that he is already 35 years old is also a problem. Not that Cejudo is much younger but Cruz has spent more time outside the octagon than inside it. I don’t expect him to be in tip-top shape to beat a guy like Cejudo.
Cejudo gives up four inches in reach in this fight but he’s accustomed to fighting bigger opponents. In his last fight, he proved his toughness against the bigger Marlon Moraes. Not only did he beat the Brazilian, he knocked him out. Triple C’s conditioning is excellent and he carries his stocky frame well.
I think that Cejudo will return to his wrestling game here. He knows that Cruz has suffered so many injuries in the past and that body is broken. I am not discounting an early knockout from the champion as he may blitz Cruz to test his opponent’s conditioning. But Cejudo is a patient predator. He will try to wear down Cruz and beat him via ground and pound.
Prediction: Henry Cejudo (-235)
Cruz averages 17:35 minutes per fight and he’s gone five rounds in six out of his last seven bouts. Cejudo’s average fight time is 12:36. He’s fought four title fights and only one of them went the distance. I think that if Dominick Cruz is in shape, this fight will go deep and possible end in a decision. However, there is no way I can determine Dom’s form right now so I have to think that he will be rusty.
Over 4.5
-220
Under 4.5
+180
Odds were taken from MyBookie as of 05/06/20
Whether he wins by knockout or submission, I think Cejudo is going to end this fight earlier than 4.5 rounds. He took out Marlon Moraes nine seconds short of 15 minutes and Moraes was in his prime. Cejudo will be patient in round one. He will start to dominate in round two, and finish Cruz in the third.
Prediction: Under 4.5 +180
Round betting is a little tough for this fight because Dominick Cruz has been away forever. We don’t know what version of Dominick Cruz will show up on Saturday but if you ask me, I think that ring rust will be a big issue with Cruz. Without him timing, I think Cruz will be ineffective.
| Line | Odds |
|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo Round 1 | +600 |
| Henry Cejudo Round 2 | +800 |
| Henry Cejudo Round 3 | +1000 |
| Henry Cejudo Round 4 | +1400 |
| Henry Cejudo Round 5 | +2000 |
| Henry Cejudo to Win on Points | +150 |
| Draw | +5000 |
| Dominick Cruz to Win on Points | +240 |
| Dominick Cruz Round 1 | +1600 |
| Dominick Cruz Round 2 | +1800 |
| Dominick Cruz Round 3 | +2200 |
| Dominick Cruz Round 4 | +2800 |
| Dominick Cruz Round 5 | +3300 |
*Betting Odds Courtesy of Betway
Cejudo will not be overconfident here. While there is always the chance that he will rush at Dom right from the start to test his conditioning, I think Cejudo will take his time and let the game come to him. Two rounds should be enough to slow down the older Cruz and Cejudo should finish him via ground and pound in round three.
As for Cruz, I think his best chance of winning is via decision. He’s never been a guy with knockout power and six out of his last seven bouts have gone five rounds.
Prediction: If you agree with me and go with Cejudo, go with Round 3 at +1000. If you like Dom, and he’s a likeable guy, bet on Cruz to win on points +240
These fighters have a combined one submission win only so I think that we get the submission options out of this equation. When it comes to knockouts, Cejudo has eight including three out of his last five bouts. Cruz has eight knockouts but has not had a stoppage since 2014.
| Line | Odds |
|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo by KO, TKO or DQ | +250 |
| Henry Cejudo by Decision or TD | +120 |
| Henry Cejudo by Submission | +800 |
| Dominick Cruz by KO, TKO or DQ | +1000 |
| Dominick Cruz by Decision or TD | +240 |
| Dominick Cruz by Submission | +1600 |
| Draw or Technical Draw | +5000 |
*Betting Odds Courtesy of Betway
This will either be a decision for Cruz, which is unlikely, or a stoppage win by Cejudo. Triple C is on a roll and he’s finished three out of his last five opponents. I’m just so impressed about his improved striking.
Prediction: Henry Cejudo by KO, TKO, or Disqualification +250. If you insist on Dom, go with Dominick Cruz via decision, or technical decision
As I said earlier, this one’s trick but if you ask me, I think that Cejudo will win in the third or fourth rounds. However, I’m basing my pick on the uncertainty of Dominick Cruz’s condition.
*Betting Odds Courtesy of Betway
Cejudo’s average fight time is more than two rounds and I’m going with Round 3 here. Round 1 should be a feel-out round and Cejudo should start to dominate in Round 2 and finish off Cruz in the third.
Prediction: Round 3 (+900)
Dominick Cruz isn’t going to find his timing here. Cejudo is going to beat him up. My pick is in the third round, but that may not be correct. What’s certain to me though is that Cruz won’t be able to finish this fight.
*Betting Odds Courtesy of Betway
I don’t think Dom has the conditioning to go five rounds. I love Dominick Cruz but he’s been gone too long. Prediction: No (+130)
This bet is one that I’m very confident about. As I said above, Dom has been gone way too long and Cejudo is having the best stretch of his career.
*Betting Odds Courtesy of Betway
I do not doubt that Cejudo will finish Dominick Cruz. Whether its’ from a punch or as a result of a ground and pound, I have Triple C winning by KO.
Prediction: Henry Cejudo to Win by KO,TKO, or Submission (+200)
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