UFC 249: Donald Cerrone vs Anthony Pettis Betting Odds and Prop Bets

Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone returns to action against former UFC lightweight champion Anthony “Showtime” Pettis in a welterweight bout in the undercard of UFC 249 on May 9, 2020, at the Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida.

The bout marks Cerrone’s second bout of 2020 as Cowboy fought and got knocked out by Conor McGregor at UFC 246 last January 18, 2020. Pettis also fought at UFC 246 where he suffered a second-round submission loss to Carlos Diego Ferreira. Both fighters are a combined 0-5 with four stoppage losses in their last five bouts so both need a win here to remain relevant.

Cowboy Cerrone

Donald Cerrone is the 6th best lightweight in the UFC today. Cowboy is a decorated fighter who holds the UFC record for most fights (34), wins (23), finishes (16), and post-fight bonuses (18). He is a one-time UFC lightweight title challenger, losing to Rafael Dos Anjos at UFC on Fox 17 in 2015.

“Cowboy” stands 6-1 tall and has a reach of 73 inches while fighting out of the orthodox style He has a record of 36-14 with 10 knockouts and 17 wins via submission. Cerrone has lost seven out of his last 11 bouts and is coming off three straight losses to Tony Ferguson, Justin Gaethje, and Conor McGregor. All three losses have been by TKO with none of the fights going more than two rounds.

He is averaging 4.33 significant strikes per minute at a 46% accuracy. Cowboy absorbs 4.27 significant strikes per minute and he has a striking defense of 53%. Cerrone lands an average of 1.21 takedowns per 15 minutes but only at a 36% accuracy. He has a 73% takedown defense and averages 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

At this stage of his career, you have to look at how wear and tear have caught up with Cerrone. He was always the UFC’s busiest fighter and this is his sixth fight since 2019 and his second of the year. He is already 37 years old and with his exciting fighting style, he’s taken a lot of punishment already.

Showtime Pettis

Anthony Pettis is the former UFC lightweight champion and the last WEC lightweight champion before the promotion’s merger with the UFC. He made one successful title defense before losing the belt to Rafael Dos Anjos at UFC 185 in 2015. Showtime Pettis is currently the 15th ranked welterweight in the UFC and he is an 8-time UFC post-fight bonus winner.

Showtime stands 5-10 tall and has a reach of 72 inches while fighting as an orthodox fighter. He owns a record of 22-10 with 11 knockouts and seven wins by submission. Like Cerrone, he’s struggling to find his form. Pettis has dropped eight out of his last 12 bouts beginning with his loss to Dos Anjos. He is coming off back to back losses to Nate Diaz and Carlos Diego Ferreira.

Pettis lands an average of 2.97 significant strikes per minute at a 46% accuracy. He gets hit by an average of 3.48 significant strikes per minute and has a 53% striking defense. He lands 54% of his takedown attempts and is averaging 0.67 takedowns per 15 minutes. Pettis has a 58% takedown defense and averages 1.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Pettis tried to move down to featherweight but was unsuccessful. He returned to lightweight but went 2-2. He beat Wonderboy at welterweight then lost to Diaz. Pettis’ loss to Ferreira was at lightweight. Now he’s fighting Cowboy at welterweight. I’m not sure how this move from one weight class to another is going to help Pettis although Cerrone isn’t a natural welterweight himself.

Who Wins?

These men fought each other at UFC on Fox 6 and Pettis gave Cerrone his first knockout loss via a kick to the body in the first round. But a lot has changed since that bout. Both fighters are more experienced and battle-tested now. When it comes to fighting at welterweight, Cerrone has fought more times here and he’s fought good competition as well.

When you look at their stats, it’s almost an even battle. Cerrone though is older by four years but I don’t think Pettis that’s going to matter much because Pettis is no spring chicken. These two fighters are over the hill and past their primes. And while Cerrone has been beaten up in his last three fights, he’s looked more consistent than Pettis in recent years.

Both men need a big win here and I think that both men will be in their best shape possible. Pettis has excellent submission moves but doesn’t force fights to the ground. He prefers to fight on his feet and Cerrone is the busier striker between the two. Both men are easily hurt but with Cowboy displaying more volume, he’ll have the bigger chance of hurting Pettis here. I’ll take the plus money and ride with Cowboy here.

Prediction: Donald Cerrone +110

Total Rounds Betting

Nine out of Pettis’ last 12 bouts have gone past 2.5 rounds even if seven of them didn’t go the distance. He’s gone over 2.5 rounds in two out of his last three bouts, both of which were welterweight bouts against Nate Diaz and Stephen Thompson. So there is no question that Pettis can hang in there in this weight class. However, his last three losses at lightweight were stoppages too so Pettis hasn’t been consistent.

Cowboy’s last three bouts didn’t get past round 2. He lost all by knockout and that’s alarming. Before that though, he won four out of his last five bouts and he went past 2.5 rounds in three of those bouts. Cerrone’s last two fights at lightweight resulted in knockout losses but to Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje who are fighting for the interim belt at the main event of UFC 249.

There is a chance that either man finishes this fight earlier than 2.5 rounds because both are easily hurt. But with what is at stake here, I think they will be more cautious and fight to a three-round striking affair.

Prediction: Over 2.5 -120

Round Betting

As stated above, I’m picking this fight to go the distance, given that both fighters are over the hill and have almost even in statistics. However, I also said that both these fighters can easily be hurt, especially Cerrone. Six out of Cowboy’s eight losses have come inside round two. So if you’re picking Pettis to win, consider picking Pettis in Round 1 +250 and Pettis in Round 2 +450. If you think this fight is going the distance as I do, go with Cerrone at +300.

Prediction: Cerrone on Points +275, but if you insist on going with Pettis, go with Showtime Round 1 +400 or Round 2 +650.

Method of Victory Betting

When you look at the stoppage percentages, you will conclude that this bout won’t go the distance. Only 15 out of Cowboy’s 51 matches went the distance and only 10 out of Pettis’ 32 bouts heard the final horn. However, as I said above, these two are evenly matched. They are both over the hill and their stats are almost even. When it comes to going the distance, Cerrone is 4-2 in his last six bouts that went the distance. Pettis is 1-4 in his last five fights that went the full route. I will have to pick Cerrone by a decision here.

Prediction: Cerrone by Decision +330

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

• Yes (+115)
• No (-155)

My bet here is yes, this fight will go the distance. Prediction: Yes +115, but if you want a better value bet, please check the one below.

When Will the Fight End?

• Either Round 1 (+300)
• Either Round 2 (+400)
• Either Round 3 (+600)
• Either to Win on Points (-120)

My pick is for this fight to go the distance and for Cerrone to win it on points. But if you’re not sure about picking a winner, bet on the fight going the distance ( the one above). However, there is a chance that this fight doesn’t go the distance and still be decided by the scorecards as in a technical decision.

Prediction: If you’re not sure about picking a winner, go with either to win on points at -120.

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