UFC 251 Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions

The UFC’s Fight Island series kicks off with UFC 251 on July 12, 2020. The series of events are set to take place at Yas Island in Abu Dhabi.

Kamaru Usman defends his UFC welterweight title against late replacement Jorge Masvidal in the main event while the rematch between Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway has been booked as the co-main event. That bout will be for the UFC featherweight title which Volkanovski took from Holloway in their first meeting. A third title fight between Petr Yan and Jose Aldo is also set to take place in the event which will be held in an open octagon on the side of a beach.

Let’s take a look at the fights in the main card of UFC 251:

Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal

Kamaru Usman is the current UFC welterweight champion. The 33-year old Nigerian-American fighter was the TUF 21 winner and the 6th ranked pound for pound fighter in the UFC. He won the belt by defeating Tyron Woodley at UFC 235 and then defended the belt successfully against Colby Covington at UFC 245. The Nigerian Nightmare stands six feet tall with a reach of 76 inches and is a switch hitter. He has a record of 16-1 with seven knockouts and one win via submission.

Jorge Masvidal is the #3 ranked welterweight in the UFC. Gamebred is the UFC’s uncrowned 2019 Fighter of the Year after his three wins over Darren Till, Ben Askren, and Nate Diaz. The 35-year old from Miami, Florida is a former Absolute Fighting Championships welterweight champion. He has a record of 35-13 with 16 knockouts and two wins via submission. He was Usman’s original opponent but after contract negotiations failed, the UFC went with Gilbert Burns. However, after Burns tested positive for the COVID-19 virus, Masvidal is stepping in on six days’ notice after signing a new contract with the UFC.

The main reason why Masvidal is a big underdog here is that he is taking the fight on six days’ notice. Another reason is that Usman is a takedown machine who has excellent grappling and wrestling. However, Masvidal has a 78% takedown defense which should be the crucial factor in this bout. If Gamebred can keep this fight in the stand-up, I think he has a good chance of pulling off the upset because he has superior striking over the champion. Usman was also preparing for Burns who is more of a grappler than a striker so there is a chance that the champ could be off here.

I know there’s a big question on Masvidal’s conditioning given that he didn’t have a training camp for the biggest fight of his life. But he’s a former street brawler and one of the toughest dudes in the division. I think Usman is the safe bet but I can’t say no to Masvidal’s current value.

Prediction: Jorge Masvidal (+215)

Alexander Volkanovski vs Max Holloway

Alexander Volkanovski is the current UFC featherweight champion and the former Australian Fighting Championship featherweight champion. Volkanovski is the 7th ranked pound for pound fighter in the UFC. The 31-year old from Australia has a record of 22-1 with 11 knockouts and three wins via submission. Alexander the Great stands 5-6 tall with a reach of 71 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. Volkanovski has won 18 consecutive bouts and has not lost since his 4th professional fight.

Max Holloway is the former UFC featherweight champion and the #1 ranked featherweight in the promotion. The #10 ranked pound for pound fighter will be trying to regain the belt he lost to Volkanovski at UFC 245. The 28-year old Hawaiian has a record of 21-5 with 10 knockouts and two wins via submission. Holloway’s last seven bouts have been title fights but he’s lost two of his last three. Blessed stands 5-11 tall and has a reach of 69 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance.

There’s a lot of pressure on Holloway here. Not only is he trying to regain his title, but Max is also trying to restore his status as one of the best in the business today. Blessed has lost two out of his last three bouts and he has been beaten up in both losses. He’s a tough dude but sometimes, losses like those take something away from even the great ones. Volkanovski is a terrific striker and he is going to bring hell once again. But looking back at the first fight, there were a couple of things I saw that makes me like Holloway here.

First, Blessed didn’t check Volkanovski’s leg kicks and that was where the Aussie earned his advantage in strikes. If Max checks the kicks here, it’s gonna be a different story. Also, Holloway turned the tide when he fought using the southpaw stance. We should see him do it more at UFC 251. I think Holloway’s a smart fighter and I think that he has what it takes to bounce back. With a “plus|” attached to his name, I’ll take my chance on Holloway.

Prediction: Max Holloway (+185)

Petr Yan vs Jose Aldo

Petr Yan is the 3rd ranked bantamweight in the UFC. This 27-year old from Russia was a former Absolute Championship Berkut bantamweight champion who signed with the UFC after making a successful title defense at ACB 71. Yan is 4-0 inside the octagon and has consecutive wins over John Dodson, Jimmie Rivera, and Urijah Faber. He stands 5-7 ½ with a reach of 67 inches and is a switch hitter. Yan has a record of 14-1 with six knockouts and one win via submission. He has won nine consecutive bouts and has not lost since dropping a split decision in 2016.

Jose Aldo is the former UFC featherweight champion who is regarded by some as the best featherweight in the history of the UFC. Junior was the holdover featherweight champion from the WEC who was promoted to UFC champion after the merger. The 33-year old stands 5-7 tall and has a reach of 70 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. Aldo has a record of 28-6 with 17 knockouts and one submission. Junior has lost five out of his last eight bouts. He is coming off back to back losses to Alexander Volkanovski and Marlon Moraes.

As with my first two picks, the plus money on Aldo is intriguing here. Sure, the former champion has been on the losing end in four out of his last six bouts, but in his last two losses to Volkanovski and Moraes, he gave a good account of himself. Aldo is still very dangerous on his feet and he can fight well on the ground. But Yan is something special. Not only is he young and hungry, but he also has some of the best boxing skills in the game. I know Aldo has the experience but Yan’s striking is something that I rave about. I think he is a step faster and quicker than Aldo. This should be Petr Yan’s coming out party.

Prediction: Petr Yan (-210)

Jessica Andrade vs Rose Namajunas

Jessica Andrade is the former UFC women’s strawweight champion. She won the belt by knocking out Rose Namajunas via body slam at UFC 237. She lost the belt in her first title defense against current champion Zhang Weili. The 28-year old from Parana, Brazil is the #1 ranked female strawweight in the UFC and the #4 female pound for pound fighter. She stands 5-1 ½ with a reach of 62 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. Andrade has a record of 20-7 with seven knockouts and seven submissions.

Rose Namajunas is a former UFC women’s strawweight champion. Thug Rose was the runner-up at TUF 20 who also fought at Invicta FC. The 28-year old from Milwaukee, Wisconsin is the #2 ranked strawweight and the #6 pound for pound female fighter in the UFC. She stands 5-5 tall and has a reach of 65 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. Namajunas has a record of 8-4 with one knockout and five submission wins.

This is another fight where the underdog is intriguing because Namajunas hasn’t fought since losing to the Brazilian. The loss was also a devastating one for Thug Rose so you have to wonder how that affected her mentally, knowing that she’s a very fragile person. However, Namajunas is the more technical fighter and the more complete one between the two. She was also in control of their first meeting before Andrade’s now-famous slam. If Namajunas has her mind set for this bout and her confidence not broken, I think this should be a fairly easy win for her.

Prediction: Rose Namajunas (-195)

Amanda Ribas vs Paige VanZant

Amanda Ribas is the 15th ranked strawweight in the UFC. The 26-year old Brazilian was a 2014 IMMAF World Champion who fought for Brazil’s Pentagon Combat and Jungle Fight before getting signed by the UFC in 2019. Ribas stands 5-4 tall and has a reach of 66 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. She has a record of 9-1 with three wins via knockout and another three by submission. Ribas is 3-0 inside the UFC octagon.

Paige VanZant is one of the most popular female fighters in the UFC. But 12 Gauge earned famed for her good looks and other TV appearances more than her UFC career. The 26-year old from Oregon has picked up a record of 8-4 with two knockouts and three wins via submission. PVZ stands 5-4 tall with a reach of 65 inches. She has dropped four out of her last six bouts and is just 1-1 as a flyweight. VanZant is coming off a submission win over Rachel Ostovich.

Both fighters love to pressure their opponents and have high work rates. The difference between the two is that Ribas is more experienced and is a better overall fighter. She has more power in her fists and she is more skilled on the ground as well. VanZant is a very popular fighter and she has a lot of fans but she doesn’t do anything extraordinary inside the octagon. Sure, you have to give her props for her toughness and all, but when it comes to skill, there is no question that Ribas is much better.

Prediction: Amanda Ribas (-950)

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