UFC 251 Prelims Undercard Betting Odds and Predictions

The UFC’s Fight Island series begins this weekend with UFC 251 on July 12, 2020, at Yas Island in Abu Dhabi.

The event is a sure blockbuster with three title fights on hand. Kamaru Usman defends the UFC welterweight champion against BMF king Jorge Masvidal in the main event. The rematch between Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway for the UFC featherweight title is the co-main event and a third title fight between Petr Yan and Jose Aldo for the vacant bantamweight title completes the trio of title bouts. Before the UFC 251 main card, an equally competitive prelims card starts the sea-side show.

Here are the prelims undercard bouts of UFC 251:

Volkan Oezdemir vs Jiri Prochazka

Volkan Oezdemir is the 7th ranked light heavyweight in the UFC. The 30-year old Swiss fighter started his UFC career with consecutive wins over Ovince Saint Preux, Misha Cirkunov, and Jimi Manuwa which earned him a title shot against Daniel Cormier at UFC 220. No Time stands 6-2 tall with a reach of 75 inches and is an orthodox fighter. He has a record of 14-4 with 12 knockouts and one loss via submission.

Jiri Prochazka fought for GCF and most recently for Rizin. After losing to Mo Lawal in 2015, he picked up nine straight wins at Rizin to earn a UFC contract. The 27-year old from the Czech Republic has an impressive record of 26-3 with 23 knockouts and two submission losses. He stands 6-3 tall and has a reach of 80 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance.

Oezdemir has shown a tendency to slow down late in his fights and that should be a problem against Prochazka who has one of the deepest gas tanks in the light heavyweight division. Prochazka also fights at a faster pace the Oezdemir and he can hold his own in terms of power and speed against No Time. Prochazka is vulnerable to low kicks but his volume offense should be able to overwhelm Oezdemir.

Prediction: Jiri Prochazka (+135)

Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos vs Muslim Salikhov

Dos Santos is a former Jungle Fight welterweight champion who amassed a 14-4 with 13 knockouts record before heading to the UFC. The 33-year old Brazilian lost his Octagon debut against Nicolas Dalby but since then, he’s lost just once in eight bouts and is coming off a win over Alexey Kunchenko. Dos Santos stands 5-11 tall with a reach of 73 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

Salikhov is a former Wushu Sanda world champion and is the only non-Chinese to win the Wushu Sanda King’s Cup. The 36-year old from Dagestan M-1 and Kunlun Fight before joining the UFC in 2017. He has a record of 16-2 with 12 knockouts and two submissions. He is an orthodox fighter who stands 5-11 tall with a reach of 70 inches.

Zaleski puts on a frantic pace that floods his opponents. However, that style didn’t work against opponents who were composed on their feet. Unfortunately for Zaleski, Salikhov is calm on his feet, doesn’t get rattled, and has better technical striking skills. Zaleski could opt to take this fight to the ground but Salikhov has shown good wrestling skills as well. I think we’ll see these two more on their feet than on the mat and Salikhov will outshine Zaleski in the standup.

Prediction: Muslim Salikhov (-130)

Makwan Amirkhani vs Danny Henry

Amirkhani is a former Finnish Wrestling Federation champion who fought for the Nordic Cage promotion before arriving in the UFC. The 31-year old Finnish fighter is best known in the UFC for his 8-second knockout of Andy Ogle. He stands 5-10 tall with a reach of 72 inches and is a southpaw. Amirkhani has a record of 15-4 with one knockout and 10 wins via submission.

Henry takes over from Mike Grundy who was supposed to fight Amirkhani last March. The 31-year old from Scotland is a former two-time EFC Worldwide featherweight champion. He is 2-1 inside the octagon and has an overall record of 12-3 with five knockouts and five wins via submission. Henry is an orthodox fighter who stands 6-0 tall with a reach of 73 inches.

Henry can be vulnerable to early pressure and aggression by his opponent but if he survives that initial onslaught, he has shown that he can come from behind and win fights. Amirkhani’s wrestling attack can overwhelm Henry early on but if the latter weathers the early storm, we’ve seen Amirkhani gas and get pummeled before. However, Amirkhani has the submission skills to foil that comeback. He is going to take this fight to the mat where he chokes out Henry before the latter gets going.

Prediction: Makwan Amirkhani (-192)

Leonardo Santos vs Roman Bogatov

Leonardo Santos is a veteran who has been in the sport since 2002. This 40-year old from Brazil competed for World Victory Road, BAMMA, and was a contestant at The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 20. This former IBJJF world champion was the TUF: Brazil 2 winner is unbeaten in seven Octagon bouts. He has a record of 17-3 with three knockouts and nine wins via submission. Santos stands 6-0 tall with a reach of 75 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

Bogatov is the former M-1 Global lightweight champion who joined the UFC after two successful title defenses. The 29-year old from Russia stands 5-8 tall with a reach of 73 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. He is undefeated with a record of 10-0 with one knockout and three wins via submission. Bogatov is one of the fighters who availed of the agreement between M-1 and UFC where M-1 champions could leave the promotion to join the UFC.

Santos is already 40 years old and hasn’t been that active. However, Bogatov relies much on his wrestling and top control. That will be a problem against Santos who has BJJ pedigree. On the feet, Bogatov is also easy to hit and Santos has shown improved striking and good power as of late. Bogatov is hoping that Santos’ age will catch up with him. However, I think that the older fighter will tire Bogatov and force him to submit late in the fight.

Prediction: Leonardo Santos (-162)

Marcin Tybura vs Maxim Grishin

Marcin Tybura is the former M-1 Global Heavyweight champion and the 2013 M-1 Global 2013 Heavyweight Grand Prix winner. The 34-year old from Poland signed with the UFC in 2013 and has posted an even 5-5 record inside the octagon. Tybura stands 6-3 tall with a reach of 78 inches and is an orthodox fighter. His record is 18-6 with seven knockouts and six submission wins.

Maxim Grishin will be making his UFC debut against Tybura. The 36-year old Russian has fought M-1 Challenge, WFCA, and the PFL before heading to the UFC. During his recent run at the PFL, Grishin won six straight bouts to earn a UFC shot. His record is 30-7 with 15 knockouts and 6 submissions. He stands 6-3 tall with a reach of 78 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance.

There’s a huge size disparity here and not only that, Grishin is taking this fight on a week’s notice. Grishin is also a natural light heavyweight and while he has some pop in his punches, he does his best work with steady kicks and a deadly right cross. However, Tybur is also a good kickboxer and I think he has the size that can withstand Grishin’s striking. I think it will be a competitive fight but the bigger man wins here.

Prediction: Marcin Tybura (-112)

Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs Raulian Paiva

Zhumagulov is the former Fight Nights Global flyweight champion who will be making his UFC debut on Saturday. The 31-year old from Kazakhstan has a record of 13-3 with six knockouts and one win via submission. He stands 5-4 tall with a reach of 66 inches and is a switch hitter.

Raulian Pavia is the 14th ranked flyweight in the UFC. This 24-year old Brazilian is a former NEC bantamweight champion who joined the UFC via the Contender Series. He is 2-2 inside the octagon and has a record of 19-3 with four knockouts and three wins by submission. He is 5-8 tall with a reach of 69 inches and is an orthodox fighter. Paiva is coming off a knockout win over Mark De La Rosa at UFC Fight Night 167 last February.

Zhumagulov gets a break after drawing a fellow striker for this bout. But the Kazakh relies on his explosiveness when fighting rangier opponents. Paiva’s height advantage looks like it will be a problem for Zhumagulov. He also has the cardio to keep up with Zhumagulov’s fast pace. Paiva has crisper shots and is tighter with his punches and he should be able to catch Zhumagulov with blows that will catch the judges’ attention.

Prediction: Raulian Paiva (-171)

Karol Rosa vs Vanessa Melo

Karol Rosa fought mostly in Brazil and she is the training champion of former champion Jessica Andrade. This 25-year old stands 5-5 tall with a reach of 67 inches and is an orthodox fighter. Rosa has a record of 12-3 with four wins via knockout and two wins via submission. She earned a split decision win over Lara Procopio in her UFC debut.

Melo fought for XFCI and SFT before joining the UFC last year. This 32-year old from Brazil stands 5-5 tall with a reach of 65 inches and is an orthodox fighter. She has a record of 10-7 with two wins via submission. Melo is 0-2 inside the octagon and is coming off a loss to Tracey Cortez.

Rosa has a 2.5-inch reach advantage over Melo and she was impressive against Lara Procopio, landing 11.4 significant strikes per minute to dominate the fight. Melo has nice striking chops and good counters but she is too inaccurate to be able to hurt Rosa. To make matters worse, Melo doesn’t have the fight-changing power to sway the judges here.

Prediction: Karol Rosa (-235)

Martin Day vs Davey Grant

Day has an overall record of 9-3 with three knockouts and two submissions win. This 31-year old from Kailua in Hawaii stands 5-10 with a reach of 73 inches and is an orthodox fighter. His only UFC bout to date was a split decision loss to Pingyuan Liu in 2018. This is his first bout in more than a year.

Davey Grant was a competitor at TUF 18 who is a former Shock n’ Awe bantamweight champion. The 34-year old from England has a record of 11-4 with 8 wins via submission and one knockout loss. The day is 2-3 inside the UFC octagon and is coming off a win over Grigorii Popov. He stands 5-8 tall with a reach of 69 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

We saw Day struggles against his opponents’ takedowns during the Contender Series and his habit of leading with open kicks leaves them vulnerable to getting caught could put him int trouble here. Grant can exploit a shaky ground game and he is the better wrestler here. I think that Day isn’t good enough to defend Grant’s takedowns. This should be a grinding affair where Grant’s wrestling wins the bout.

Prediction: Davey Grant (+150)

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