UFC 261 Prelims Undercard Betting Preview

The UFC heads to the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida on Saturday night for UFC 261: Usman vs Masvidal 2.

In the main event, UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman will defend his belt against Jorge Masvidal in a rematch of their UFC 251 showdown in Abu Dhabi. Masvidal took that fight on six days’ notice and Usman won the fight easily via unanimous decision.

Meanwhile, UFC women’s strawweight champion Weili Zhang will defend her belt against former champion Rose Namajunas in the co-main event.

But before those two title fights, an exciting prelims undercard will open the event. Let’s take a look at those fights and make our predictions:

Alex Oliveira vs Randy Brown

Oliveira is a former kickboxer who has been in the UFC since 2015. A former standout in regional Brazilian promotions, Cowboy opened his UFC career with a 7-2-1 record with his only losses coming at the hands of Donald Cerrone and Gilbert Burns. But the 33-year old has struggled recently, winning just two out of his last six bouts. Overall, Cowboy has a record of 22-9 with 12 knockouts and 5 submission victories. He is 5-11 tall with a reach of 76 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance.

Randy Brown is a former Ring of Combat welterweight champion. The 30-year old from Springfield, Massachusetts joined the UFC in 2016 and has a 6-4 Octagon record. Brown heads to this fight coming off a loss to Vicente Luque but prior to that, he won back-to-back bouts. He has a record of 12-4 with six knockouts and four wins via submission. Brown is an orthodox fighter who stands 6-3 tall with a reach of 78 inches.

Oliveira has struggled to get the early finishes and once he gets past round one, he tends to rely on top control to try and win the fight. That’s not going to work against Brown who has the durability to withstand Oliveira’s early onslaught and has more than enough cardio to punish the Brazilian in the late stages of the fight. Of course, there is always a chance that Oliveira catches Brown flush and knocks him out cold but with what’s happened as of late, Cowboy may be in a point of diminishing return. I’ll say Brown wins this.

Prediction: Randy Brown

Karl Roberson Brendan Allen

Karl Roberson is a former kickboxer who earned his UFC contract with a win in the Contender Series. The 30-year old from Neptune, New Jersey is known as Baby K is just 4-3 inside the UFC Octagon and has an overall record of 9-3 with two knockouts and four wins via submission. He stands 6-1 tall and has a 74-inch reach.

Brendan Allen is a former Legacy Fighting Alliance middleweight champion. The 25-year old from Beaufort, South Carolina won his first three UFC bouts but suffered a second round knockout loss to Sean Strickland in his most recent UFC outing. Allen is 6-2 tall and has a reach of 75 inches. He owns a professional record of 15-4 with five knockouts and eight submission victories.

Roberson’s wrestling is always a threat but his inability to defend takedowns is a liability against Allen who has a dangerous submission game. Roberson also has kickboxing experience but lacks the one-punch knockout power to make his opponents notice him. I think Roberson will try to keep this up but Allen has enough skills to hold his own on the feet before taking the fight down when needed. We’re going to see Brendan Allen take Roberson down as many times as he can until he wears down Roberson.

Prediction: Brendan Allen

Danaa Batgerel vs Kevin Natividad

Danaa Batgerel joined the UFC in 2019 after campaigning in Asia. The 31-year old from Mongolia is 1-1 inside the UFC Octagon and is coming off a KO win over Guido Cannetti in March 2020. Batgerel has a record of 8-2 with four knockouts and two submission wins. He stands 5-7 tall with a reach of 70 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance.

Kevin Natividad fought for Combate Americas and LFA before joining the UFC last year. Natividad lost to Miles John via knockout in his UFC debut last October and he has a record of 9-2 with five knockouts and one win via submission. Quicksand is 5-6 tall with a reach of 70 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance.

This has the makings of a Fight of the Night contender if both fighters fight their styles. These two love a close-quarter brawl and they also have decent wrestling to mix things up if needed. Natividad will have a good chance here if he can consistently put Batgerel on his back. But the Mongolian isn’t an easy man to take down and he is no slouch on the feet. I think Batgerel keeps this fight on the feet and his durability will be the difference here. Natividad is coming off a KO loss and has been stopped before. I think this will be an exciting slugfest and the more durable fighter wins.

Prediction: Danaa Batgerel

Rodrigo Vargas vs Zhu Rong

Mexico’s Rodrigo Vargas entered the UFC in 2019 after picking up back-to-back wins at the Combate Americas promotion. The 35-year old from Mexico City lost via decision to Alex da Silva Coelho in his UFC debut and was disqualified for an illegal knee in his next bout against Brok Weaver. Vargas has a record of 11-4 with seven knockouts and three submission wins. He is a southpaw fighter who stands 5-8 tall with a reach of 71 inches.

Zhu Rong is a former WLF lightweight champion in his native China. The 21-year old from Aba in Sichuan, China heads to his UFC debut having won his last 10 bouts, including nine via stoppage. Zhu has a record of 16-3 with 11 knockouts and four submission wins. He stands 5-9 tall with a reach of 72 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance.

Zhu has perhaps the most upside among the UFC’s new Chinese signings. He is only 21 years old and is already a polished fighter with dangerous striking. But that doesn’t mean he’s invincible. He tends to get backed against the cage and that could leave an opportunity for Vargas to take him down and wear him out with top control. However, Zhu has solid takedown defense and is the more versatile fighter on the feet, and has the tools to counter Vargas grappling. Zhu breaks down Vargas with a sprawl and brawl attack, then wins a striking battle.

Prediction: Zhu Rong

Qileng Aori vs Jeff Molina

Qileng Aori is a former WLF bantamweight champion in China. The Team BKS fighter heads to his UFC debut with six consecutive victories and has an overall record of 18-6 with five knockouts and two wins via submission. The 28-year old is 5-7 tall with a reach of 69 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance.

Jeff Molina fought for Cageside Promotions before appearing in the Contender Series last year where he earned his UFC contract. The 23-year old from Kansas has won his last seven bouts and has a record of 8-2 with three knockouts and four wins via submission. Molina is an orthodox fighter who stands 5-6 tall with a reach of 69 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

Aori likes to stalk his opponents and tries to put them away with his big punches. Often, however, he pulls his punches from his hips which should leave openings for the very mobile Molina. Aori looks to be the bigger puncher between the two but his defensive lapses will negate that advantage. I think Molina keeps this fight at range and wins a unanimous decision.

Prediction: Jeff Molina

Na Liang vs Ariane Carnelossi

Na Liang fought mostly for WLF but had an unsuccessful stint at Bellator 189. The 24-year old known as the Dragon Girl heads to this bout having won her last four bouts. Liang is a graduate of the UFC’s Performance Institute in Shanghai and has a record of 13-4 with four knockouts and seven submission victories. She is an orthodox fighter who stands 5-5 tall with a reach of 66 inches.

Ariane Carnelossi saw her 12 bout winning streak end during her UFC debut when she lost to Angela Hill in her UFC debut. The 28-year old from Sao Paulo, Brazil is an orthodox fighter who is 5-2 tall with a reach of 61 inches. She has an overall record of 12-2 with eight knockouts and one submission victory.

Liang likes to shoot very early, even within seconds of the fight, and even pulling guard if she has to before chasing chokes, armbars, heel hooks without regard for anything else. But her style has not worked against opponents who can ably defend submission moves. Carnelossi is one of those. Sorriso has excellent takedown defense and more punching power and Liang is more likely getting stopped on the feet or pounded out from guard. Either way, I think Carnelossi is winning this.

Prediction: Ariane Carnelossi

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