UFC 262 Main Card Betting Odds and Picks

The lightweights take center stage this weekend at UFC 262 at the Toyota Center in Houston.

No. 3 Charles Oliveira battles No. 4 Michael Chandler for the vacant UFC lightweight championship in the main event while Top 10 lightweights Tony Ferguson and Beneil Dariush collide in the co-headliner. A key women’s flyweight bout between Katlyn Chookagian and Vivian Araujo is also on the main card while ranked featherweights Shane Burgos and Edson Barboza square off in one of the featured bouts of the event.

Let’s take a look at the UFC 262 main card and pick our winners.

Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler

Oliveira is the no.3 ranked lightweight in the UFC. The 31-year old is tied with Donald Cerrone with 17 post-fight bonuses, most in the history of the UFC. Oliveira fought mostly in Brazil before joining the UFC in 2010. Since losing to Paul Felder in 2017, he’s won eight consecutive bouts, including seven via stoppage with Tony Ferguson as the only fighter that went the distance against him during that period. Oliveira has a record of 30-8 with 8 knockouts and 19 submission victories. He is an orthodox fighter who is 5-10 tall with a 74-inch reach.

Chandler is a former three-time Bellator lightweight champion. A former NCAA Division I All-American wrestler, he is the 4th ranked lightweight in the UFC. The 35-year old Chandler knocked out Dan Hooker in his Octagon debut at UFC 257 last January. He is 10-2 in his last 12 bouts with his losses coming at the hands of Brent Primus and Patricio Freire in world title fights. Chandler is 5-8 tall with a reach of 71 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance. He has a record of 22-5 with 10 knockouts and 7 submission wins.

There’s no question why Oliveira is favored here. He’s on a terrific winning run and has proven himself time and again inside the Octagon. But Chandler has the elite wrestling to counter Oliveira’s advantages on the mat and if this fight goes to the feet, Chandler is also the more polished striker between the two. If you want to play safe, go with Oliveira as this fight could go either way. But I’ll take the plus money and roll with Chandler. I think he’s going to surprise his doubters on Saturday night.

Prediction: Michael Chandler

Tony Ferguson vs Beneil Dariush

Tony Ferguson is the former interim UFC lightweight champion and the winner of The Ultimate Fighter season 13 tournament. The 37-year old is ranked 5th in the UFC lightweight rankings but has lost his last two bouts. Prior to his current skid, El Cucuy won 12 straight bouts and went undefeated for 8 years. Ferguson has a record of 25-5 with 12 knockouts and 8 submission wins. He is 5-11 tall with a reach of 76 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

Beneil Dariush is the 9th ranked lightweight in the UFC. The Iranian-born fighter is a former Jiu-Jitsu world champion and RITC lightweight champion. Dariush joined the UFC in 2014 and went 8-2 in his first 10 Octagon assignments. After going winless in three bouts from 2017-18, he has won six straight bouts, four via stoppage to enter the Top 10. Dariush is a southpaw who stands 5-10 tall and has a reach of 72 inches.

One year ago, it would have been foolish to even think of picking Beneil Dariush here. However, after back-to-back losses, one has to wonder what is left of the bogeyman of the lightweight division. Ferguson is 37 and has looked like a shell of his old self in his last two bouts. Unless he turns back the clock, Dariush has a good path to victory here. I wanted to take the plus money here the way I did with Chandler in the main event but looking back, Ferguson showed little resistance in his last two bouts. That’s not going to work for me here. Dariush gets his biggest win ever.

Prediction: Beneil Dariush

Katlyn Chookagian vs Viviane Araujo

Katlyn Chookagian is the no. 2 ranked flyweight in the UFC. The 32-year old is a former Cage Fury Fighting Championship women’s flyweight and bantamweight champion. Chookagian won six out of her first eight UFC bouts and earned a title shot against Valentina Shevchenko at UFC 247 where she was stopped in the third round. She has a record of 15-4 with two knockouts and one submission win. Chookagian is an orthodox fighter who stands 5-9 tall with a reach of 68 inches.

Viviane Araujo is a former Pancrase strawweight champion and the current no. 7 ranked female flyweight in the UFC. The 34-year old Brazilian is 4-1 in the UFC and she has won back-to-back fights heading to this contest. Araujo has a record of 10-2 with three knockouts and four submission victories. She is an orthodox fighter who stands 5-4 tall and has a reach of 68 inches.

Chookagian is a solid fighter but she isn’t the most exciting to watch with 12 of her 15 wins won via decision. She has great boxing but she’s a point-fighter and not a power puncher. Araujo likes to brawl with her opponents but with Chookagian’s slick boxing, she’s just going to jab her way to victory here. It won’t be a fun fight, that’s for sure. But I’m pretty sure Chookagian takes this one.

Prediction: Katlyn Chookagian

Shane Burgos vs Edson Barboza

Shane Burgos is the 9th ranked featherweight in the promotion. This 30-year old fought for Ring of Combat and CFFC before joining the UFC. He is 6-2 inside the Octagon with his losses coming against Calvin Kattar in 2018 and Josh Emmett in his last fight. Burgos is 13-2 with five knockouts and five submission wins. He is 5-11 tall with a reach of 75 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

Edson Barboza is the 13th ranked featherweight in the UFC. The 35-year old from Brazil is a former Ring of Combat lightweight champion and a former Muay Thai champion. Barboza has been in the UFC since 2010 but has struggled since 2017, losing five out of his last seven bouts. He has a record of 21-9 with 12 knockouts and one submission win. Barboza is 5-11 tall with a reach of 75 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

Barboza’s advantage has always been his size but he won’t have that against Burgos. Since moving to 145 pounds, the Brazilian’s power has looked diminished and that’s going to be a problem if Burgos can close the distance. Barboza will try to utilize his kicks to fend off Burgos but the latter is tough with only Calvin Kattar the only fighter to knock him out. I like Burgos to cut off the ring and smoke Barboza.

Prediction: Shane Burgos

Matt Schnell vs Rogerio Bontorin

Matt Schnell is a former Legacy Fighting Alliance flyweight champion who is currently ranked 8th in the UFC flyweight rankings. He was a quarterfinalist at The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions. Schnell is 15-5 with two knockouts and eight submission victories. He is 5-1 in his last six bouts while standing 5-8 tall with a reach of 70 inches and fighting out of the orthodox stance.

Rogerio Bontorin is a former Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu champion and the 9th best flyweight in the UFC. The 29-year old from Brazil fought for Pancrase before making an appearance at the Contender Series Brazil where he earned a UFC contract. After winning his first two assignments under the promotion, he’s dropped back-to-back bouts. Overall, Bontorin is 16-3 with three knockouts and 11 submission wins. He is 5-5 tall with a 67-inch reach and fights out of the orthodox stance.

These are two very good submission artists here and both know how to defend submissions too. I think this has the potential to be a boring grappling fight on the ground. But it could also become an exciting affair with both fighters alternating with submission attempts. I don’t see one of them getting submitted but I believe Schnell is better during scrambles and that could be the difference here.

Prediction: Matt Schnell

Place Your Bets Now!

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks 04/19/2023 NBA Odds and Prediction New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers 04/17/2023 MLB Preview and Prediction Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees 04/14/2023 MLB Preview and Prediction OKC Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans 04/12/2023 NBA Play-in Tournament Odds and Prediction