UFC 272 Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions

Bad Blood will spill on the Octagon on Saturday night when former good friends and teammates Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal finally share the cage since their feud began a couple of years ago.

Covington and Masvidal will headline this Saturday night’s UFC event at the Vystar Veteran Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida. Covington is coming off a loss to Kamaru Usman at UFC 268 in his second failed title challenge. Masvidal is also coming off back-to-back losses, both to Usman. But more than rankings and money, these two bitter rivals want to take the other guy’s head off here.

In the co-main event, former UFC lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos will take on replacement opponent Renato Moicano after his original foe, Rafael Fiziev withdrew from the event due to undisclosed reasons. Moicano is taking this fight on four days’ notice.

Let’s take a look at the rest of the UFC 272 main card bouts and make our predictions.

Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal

Colby Covington is the no. 1 ranked welterweight in the UFC. Chaos is a former interim UFC welterweight champion and two-time UFC welterweight title challenger. A former NCAA Division I All-American wrestler at Oregon State, Covington joined the UFC in 2014 after starting his career in the regional circuits of Florida. The 34-year old originally from Clovis, California joined the UFC in 2014 and has notable wins over the likes of Mike Pyle, Demian Maia, and former champions Rafael Dos Anjos and Robbie Lawler.

Covington has a record of 16-3 with four knockouts and four submission wins. He is 5-11 tall with a reach of 72 inches and fights as an orthodox fighter.

Jorge Masvidal is the no. 6 ranked welterweight in the UFC and a two-time UFC welterweight title challenger. The 37-year old from Miami, Florida has been fighting since 2003 and has competed for promotions like Bellator, Strikeforce, Shark Fights, and World Victory Road. Gamebred joined the UFC in 2013 and has notable wins over Donald Cerrone, Darren Till, Ben Askren, and Nate Diaz. Masvidal owns the fastest KO in UFC history when he knocked out Askren in five seconds. He also beat Diaz for the “BMF” title.

Masvidal has a record of 35-15 with 16 knockouts and two submission wins. He is 5-11 tall with a reach of 74 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

One can never discount Masvidal delivering a stunning KO like what he did against Ben Askren. But while that’s possible, it may be unlikely as Covington looks like he has the skills to take care of his former buddy.

Covington will use his pace and forward pressure to grind Masvidal for five rounds. Chaos is going to push Masvidal against the cage and take him down as many times as he can then beat him up on the ground.

Masvidal is 37 years old and while he’s still very charismatic, I don’t think he can match Covington’s energy or gas tank. Gamebred has gone over three rounds three times during his entire MMA career. Covington has gone five rounds in his last five bouts. Go figure.

Unless Covington does something stupid like engaging Masvidal in a stand-up war where he has a chance, I don’t see how Covington loses this fight. This one’s in the bag for Chaos and it won’t be too difficult.

Prediction: Colby Covington

Rafael Dos Anjos vs Renato Moicano

Rafael Dos Anjos is a former UFC lightweight champion and a former interim welterweight title challenger. The 37-year old from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil is the current no. 6 ranked lightweight in the UFC. Dos Anjos began his MMA career in Brazil, fighting for promotions like Juiz de Fora, Shooto Brazil, and Fury FC. He joined the UFC in 2008 and after starting his UFC career with a record of 4-4, he won 10 of his next 11 bouts. During that stretch, he won the UFC lightweight belt against Anthony Pettis and made one successful title defense before losing the title to Eddie Alvarez.

Dos Anjos has a record of 30-13 with five knockouts and 10 wins via submission. He is a southpaw who stands 5-8 tall with a reach of 70 inches.

Renato Moicano is a former interim Jungle Fight featherweight champion. The 32-year old from Brasilia, Brasil has been fighting since 2010 and was a very popular figure in the Brazilian circuit. Moicano joined the UFC in 2014 and won his first three UFC bouts. He went 3-4 after that but has recovered and is coming off back-to-back wins against Jai Herbert and Alexander Hernandez.

Moicano is 16-4 with nine wins via submission. He is 5-11 tall with a reach of 72 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance.

Moicano is no stranger to big fights and he’s won his last four bouts via submission. He isn’t an excellent striker but his bread and butter have always been his grappling. Unfortunately for Moicano, Dos Anjos is one of the few fighters who can say they are better than Moicano in that department.

Give props to Moicano for taking this fight against a former UFC lightweight champion on four days’ notice. But having said that, Dos Anjos had a full camp training for Rafal Fiziev. Knowing RDA, he’s ready for anything here.

Moicano is a credible foe. But he has his hands full here against RDA. Preparation is always important when fighting a machine like Dos Anjos. Moicano did not have that luxury. Dos Anjos has been there and done that so there is nothing that Moicano will do that will surprise him at all. RDA’s seen everything inside the Octagon and he knows what to do, and how to adjust if needed.

Prediction: Rafael Dos Anjos

Edson Barboza vs Bryce Mitchell

Edson Barboza is the no. 10 ranked featherweight in the UFC. The 36-year old from Rio de Janeiro is a former Muay Thai champion and Brazilian submission wrestling champion. Barboza is a former Renaissance MMA lightweight champion and Ring of Combat lightweight champion. He joined the UFC in 2010 and has won 8 Fight of the Night bonuses, tied for the most in UFC history. Barboza has lost four out of his last six bouts and was knocked out by Giga Chikadze in his most recent bout last August 2021.

He is 22-10 with 13 knockouts and one submission victory. Barboza is 5-11 tall with a reach of 75 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

Bryce Mitchell is the no.11 ranked featherweight in the UFC. The 27-year old from Cabot, Arkansas appeared in The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated series where he lost to eventual winner Brad Katona in the semifinals. Mitchell began his fighting career at V3 Fights and WSOF before joining the UFC. He is coming off a win over Andre Fili at UFC Vegas 12.

Mitchell is 14-0 with nine submission wins, including a 5-0 record in the UFC. He is 5-10 tall with a reach of 70 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance.

Barboza’s been here forever and given the mileage he has, the 36-year old Brazilian may be nearing the end of his time as an elite fighter. In his last bout, Barboza was brutalized by Giga Chikadze and if that was any indication, it looks like the best of Barboza is already behind him.

Mitchell is mainly a grappler and he’s going to take Barboza down and beat him on the mat. The last time an opponent tried to beat Barboza on the mat was Makwan Amirkhani who completed three of six takedowns against Barboza’s 78% takedown defense. Again, that may be a sign that Barboza is starting to fade.

It was tough watching Tony Ferguson get smoked by Justin Gaethje in a bout that started El Cucuy’s decline. I think this is the fight that does that to Barboza. Mitchell should be able to implement his game plan and beat Barboza violently. Prediction: Bryce Mitchell

Kevin Holland vs Alex Oliveira

Kevin Holland is the no. 14 ranked middleweight in the UFC and a former XKO welterweight and middleweight champion. The 29-year old from Riverside, California joined the UFC via the Contender Series where he picked up a win over Will Santiago Jr. After losing to Thiago Santos in his UFC debut, Holland went on to win eight out of his next nine bouts, including five in a row in 2020. Holland went 0-2-1 in 2021 with his October bout against Kyle Daukaus ending in a no-contest.

Holland is 21-7 with 12 knockouts and five submission victories. He is 6-3 tall with a reach of 81 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance.

Alex Oliveira is is a veteran who fought under ATS Kombat, Big Fight Champions, Bitetti Combat, and Watch Out Combat Show in Brazil before joining the UFC in 2015. The 34-year old from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil started his UFC career with a 7-3-1 record. But after back-to-back wins over Carlos Condit and Carlo Pedersoli Jr., Oliveira has gone 2-6 with losses in his last three bouts. In his most recent outing, he dropped a unanimous decision against Niko Price.

Oliveira is 22-11 with 2 knockouts and five submission victories. He is 5-11 tall with a reach of 76 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

Oliveira is another fighter on the way down. Although both he and Holland love to stand and trade which means Oliveira will always have the puncher’s chance to win this bout, Holland is clearly in his prime and is trying to regain the form that gave him a 5-0 record in 2020.

Holland has knockout power too and he is the younger fighter here. Sure, he is moving down to 170 pounds but I don’t think there’s too much risk for him here. It’s going to be an exciting fight given Oliveira’s style but Holland looks sharper these days despite what his recent record says.

This should be one of the more exciting fights of the event and the fighter in his prime should take this over the veteran who looks to be on his way down. I’ve gotta pick Kevin Holland here.

Prediction: Kevin Holland

Sergey Spivak vs Greg Hardy

Sergey Spivak is a veteran who has been fighting since 2014. The 27-year old Moldovan fought under promotions like World Warriors Fighting Championships, Eagles Fighting Championship, N1 Pro Nomad, and Real Fight Promotion. He joined the UFC in 2019 after the second successful defense of the WWFC heavyweight title. Spivak lost two out of his first three UFC bouts but is 3-1 since although he lost his most recent bout against Tom Aspinall via KO.

Spivak is 13-3 with five knockouts and six submission wins. He is 6-3 tall with a reach of 78 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance.

Greg Hardy is a former NFL player who transitioned to MMA after he was banned by the NFL in 2015. The 33-year old from Millington, Tennessee first appeared in the Contender Series where he posted a 2-0 record. After a one-fight stint at Xtreme Fight Night, he was signed by the UFC and won four out of his first seven bouts with one no-contest. Hardy is coming off back-to-back KO losses to Marcin Tybura and Tai Tuivasa.

Hardy is 7-4 with six knockouts. He is 6-5 tall with a reach of 80 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

You have to take your hat off to Greg Hardy for making the transition from the NFL to MMA. But for all the excitement he generated at the start of his MMA career, it’s all gone now and it looks like he’s reached his peak and is going down now.

The UFC has helped get Hardy with his schedule but he’s not produced wins as the promotion wanted. This one’s a tough matchup as Spivak is going to test Hardy’s wrestling and the former NFL player isn’t going to pass this one either. Give me Spivak to take down Hardy and choke him out after a couple of minutes on the mat.

Prediction: Sergey Spivak

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