The UFC head to the Centro de Formacao Olimpica do Nordeste in Fortaleza, Brazil on Saturday for UFC Fight Night 44 also known as UFC on ESPN + 2.
A rematch between Top 5 bantamweights Raphael Assuncao and Marlon Moraes headlines the event while a featherweight showdown between Jose Aldo and Renato Moicano is booked to to serve as the co-main event.
Raphael Assuncao vs Marlon Moraes 2
Raphael Assuncao suffered a first-round knockout to Erik Koch in his promotional debut at UFC 128 in 2011. Since then, he’s won 11 out of his last 12 bouts with his only loss during that period coming at the hands of current bantamweight champion T.J. Dillashaw. The 36 year old Assuncao has a record of 27-5 with 4 knockouts and 10 submissions. Assuncao has won his last four bouts and is coming off a unanimous decision win over Rob Font at UFC 226 in July 2018.
Raphael Assuncao vs Marlon Moraes 2
Moneyline Odds: Assuncao +142, Moraes -162
Over/Under Odds: Over 4.5 -180, Under 4.5 +150
Odds from betonline.ag as of 2/1/19
Like his opponent, Marlon Moraes lost his UFC debut and he lost it to the man he is facing again on Saturday night. Moraes was the staple at the former WSOF, winning the inaugural bantamweight title and defending the belt five times before coming over to the UFC. After his split decision loss to Assuncao at UFC 212, Moraes has racked up three impressive wins. He decisioned John Dodson in November 2017 and then knocked out Aljamain Sterling and Jimmie Rivera in a combined 100 seconds.
Who Wins?
Assuncao has a style that fans don’t pay to see. He is defensive minded and would rather counter rather than force the issue. But while he isn’t exciting, he is very effective and efficient in what he does. Moraes meanwhile is a very active fighter with a dynamic offensive game. He constantly moves, switches stances and looks for creative angles with where to throw his strikes. His strikes are mostly leg kicks and that’s what he used to knock Jimmie Rivera out in his last bout.
I have a good feeling this one’s going to end up exactly like the first bout: a tactical chess match where neither fighter really got a decisive edge over the other. I like Assuncao here though because his deliberate, calculating and patient counter punching style seems tailor-made to find holes in Moraes’ aggressive, active and high volume attacks. Moraes’ style is going to leave openings that Assuncao is going to take advantage of. Unless this is the fight where Assuncao grows old overnight, I’m picking Raphael Assuncao to beat Marlon Moraes again by decision.
Prediction: Assuncao +142. If you’re not convinced about the winner, go with the over 4.5 round. I don’t see either fighter finishing his opponent in a chess match.
Jose Aldo vs Renato Moicano
Jose Aldo has gone from being the greatest featherweight champion of all-time to fighting in the co-main event of a non pay per view card. That’s because Junior has lost three out of his last five bouts beginning with the 13 second destruction at the hands of Conor McGregor. Aldo would recapture the featherweight title only to lose it to Max Holloway again. Aldo never got his chance to avenge the loss to McGregor. He got his chance against Holloway but he got knocked out again in their rematch.
Moneyline Odds: Aldo +120, Moicano -140
Over/Under Odds: Over 2.5 (-220), Under 2.5 (+180)
Odds from betonline.ag as of 2/1/19
Renato Moicano won his first 11 fights including three in the UFC before running into former title challenger Brian Ortega at UFC 214. Moicano outstruck Ortega 111-65 but ended up suffering his first defeat after getting submitted via guillotine choke. Since that loss, he’s bounced back nicely, winning a decision over Calvin Kattar and submitting Cub Swanson via rear naked choke.
Who Wins?
Jose Aldo built his GOAT resume fighting a fast-paced bout where he would take away his opponent’s offense and dissect them with his powerful punches and punishing leg kicks. Moicano is an excellent counter puncher who uses his jabs well to keep his foe at bay. He likes to throw hook followed by a kick combination from the orthodox style.
Moicano is the bigger fighter between the two and with a polished grappling game, he will most certainly want to put down Aldo and test his ground skills. Junior meanwhile, always prefers to fight in the stand up. Aldo is coming off a knockout win over Jeremy Stephens so no doubt, Aldo still has the power in his fists and will most certainly look for the stoppage here. I think Moicano has the edge because he is the bigger, younger and faster fighter between the two.
Prediction: Moicano -140 by decision. Aldo probably wins Round 1 but I see Moicano taking over in the last two rounds to beat Aldo on points. If you don’t want to pick a winner, go with the over 2.5 rounds. I think Aldo is too slick to submit for Moicano while Moicano may be too big to knock out for Aldo. This one’s going the distance.