UFC Fight Night 170 Betting Odds and Predictions

UFC Fight Night 170 happens this coming Saturday, March 14, 2020, at the Ginasio Nilson Nelson in Brasilia, Brazil.

Amidst the Coronavirus scare that has forced the suspension of the NBA, NHL, MLB Spring Training, NCAA Tournaments, and March Madness, the UFC is pushing through with its UFC Brasilia event this coming weekend in Brazil. But due to the deadly virus, the event will be held in closed doors.

The decision came after the Brazilian government announced that sporting events and concerts with gatherings of more than 100 people would be suspended until March 16 due to the outbreak of the Coronavirus. The UFC canceled Thursday’s media day where the fighters for UFC Brasilia were supposed to talk to the press. Friday’s ceremonial weigh-in has also been called off but despite all the challenges, the show will go on. And so must we.

So here is the complete line-up for the main card of UFC Fight Night 170:

Kevin Lee vs Charles Oliveira

Kevin Lee is the #8 ranked lightweight in the UFC. Known as the Motown Phenom, the 27-year old from Detroit lost his UFC debut against Al Iaquinta but picked up five straight wins after that. Lee fought and lost to Tony Ferguson for the interim lightweight belt at UFC 216. Lee stands 5-9 tall and has a reach of 77 inches and is an orthodox fighter. He has a record of 19-5 with three knockouts and eight wins via submission.

Charles Oliveira is currently ranked 13th in the UFC lightweight division. The 30-year old from Sao Paulo in Brazil holds the record for most submissions in the UFC with 13 and is second in finishes with 15. Do Bronx has a UFC record nine Performance of the Night bonuses. He stands 5-10 with a reach of 74 inches and has a record of 28-8 with 8 knockouts and 18 wins by way of submission.

Lee is known for his wrestling and he averages 3.23 takedowns per 15 minutes while recording a total of 16 takedowns in his last five bouts. His striking isn’t elite although it has improved over the years under Firas Zahabi. Lee throws the jab to set up his big right hand but usually, he prefers to counter and is often outboxed because of the lack of speed. Oliveira likes to pressure his opponents on the feet, using leg kicks and a wild forward-moving style. Do Bronx often gets taken down because of his long punches but he fights well on his back with 18 of 28 wins by submission. We’ve seen Lee fade late in fights and we’ve seen him get rocked before. Oliveira’s improved striking and his ability to submit opponents should be worrisome for Lee. I know Lee is a decent favorite here but at plus money, Oliveira is worth the risk here.

Prediction: Charles Oliveira

Gilbert Burns vs Demian Maia

Gilbert Burns is a three-time Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu world champion and the 12th ranked welterweight contender in the UFC. The 33-year old from Rio de Janeiro was the grappling coach for Vitor Belfort’s team in the first season of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil. Burns is a former multiple time IBJJF world champion and recently signed a four-fight UFC contract. Burns stands 5-10 tall with a reach of 71 inches and has a record of 17-3 with five knockouts and 8 wins by submission.

Demian Maia is a former two-time title challenger and the 5th ranked featherweight in the UFC today. The 42-year old Brazilian is regarded as one of the greatest grapplers and submission artists in the history of the UFC. He is a former submission wrestling world champion in the ADCC and an 8-time post-fight bonus winner in the UFC. Maia has a record of 28-9 with 3 knockouts and 14 wins by submission. He stands 6-1 tall and has a reach of 72 inches.

Burns is a very good grappler and has 8 of 17 wins by way of submission. But since 2016, he’s only recorded one submission victory and has relied more on his explosive striking. His weakness has always bee his reluctance to throw punches as he’s averaging just 3.09 significant strikes per minute at a low 43% accuracy rate. Maia is already 42 years old but he has proved that he still belongs in the UFC. Regarded as the greatest grappler ever in the UFC, Maia is one of the most dangerous fighters on the ground and is most dangerous when he gets on your back like a backpack. 14 of his wins have been by submission including nine by rear-naked choke. I expect Maia to get this fight to the ground and find his way to Burns’ back.

Prediction: Demian Maia

Renato Moicano vs Damir Hadzovic

Renato Moicano is the 7th ranked featherweight in the UFC. The 30-year old Brazilian was a former interim featherweight champion at Jungle Fight. Moicano left for the UFC in 2014 and he won his first three octagon assignments. He has gone 2-3 since then, losing to Brian Ortega, Jose Aldo, and the Korean Zombie. Moicano is 13-3 with six submission wins and he stands 5-11 tall with a reach of 72 inches.

Damir Hadzovic fought for Cage Fights and Cage Warriors before joining the UFC in 2016. This 33-year old Bosnian-Danish fighter stands 5-11 tall with a reach of 70 inches and fights out of Copenhagen. He is 13-5 with seven knockouts and three wins by submission. The Bosnian Bomber is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Greek fighter Christos Giagos last June 2019.

Moicano fights at a distance and uses his powerful kicks to stay away from his opponent’s power punches. Despite his style, he suffered back to back knockout losses in his last two fights and if you review the tapes, Moicano tends to leave his chin wide open when he backs up. Hadzovic likes to push forward and loves being the aggressor in his fights. He often throws lunging hooks which are usually wild and without much power. He creates damage when he sits on his punches but he tends to overextend, leaving himself open to getting countered. I like Moicano to win this fight with his counter punching skills.

Prediction: Renato Moicano

Johnny Walker vs Nikita Krylov

Johnny Walker is the 10th ranked light heavyweight in the UFC and was a product of Dana White’s Contender Series. The 27-year old from Rio de Janeiro won the Performance of the Night bonus during his UFC debut where he knocked out Khalil Rountree. He knocked out Justin Ledet in his first bout of 2019 and then he scored another first-round stoppage by knocking out Misha Cirkunov at UFC 235. Walker suffered his first UFC loss to Corey Anderson at UFC 244. He stands 6-5 with a reach of 82 inches. Walker is 17-4 with 14 knockouts and two wins by submission.

Nikita Krylov was the first Ukrainian to be signed by the UFC and he used to fight for M-1 Global. He joined the UFC with a record of 15-2 but was knocked out by Soa Palelei in his UFC debut in 2013. After he was choked by Misha Cirkunov at UFC 206, he went to Fight Nights Global and became its light heavyweight champion. Krylov is 1-2 since his return to the UFC. He stands 6-3 tall with a reach of 77.5 inches. His record stands at 26-7 with 11 knockouts and 15 wins by submission.

Walker fights like a madman and constantly moves and feints while looking for the chance to land one of his highlight-reel knockout punches. Although he moves a lot, his head doesn’t so if you can time him as Corey Anderson did in his last fight, Walker is a goner. Krylov likes to put the pressure on his opponents but he uses his striking to set up his takedowns and take the fight to the floor where he is most dangerous. He has at least one takedown in his last four bouts and 15 of his 26 wins have come via submission. I like Krylov to put Walker on his back and submit the Brazilian.

Prediction: Nikita Krylov

Francisco Trinaldo vs John Makdessi

Francisco Trinaldo is a former Jungle Fight lightweight champion and a competitor at The Ultimate Fighter” Brazil. The 41-year old Brazilian joined the UFC in 2012 and knocked out Delson Heleno at UFC 147 in his octagon debut. He owns notable wins over Norman Parke, Ross Parson, Yancy Medeiros, Paul Felder, Jim Miller, and Bobby Green. Trinaldo stands 5-9 tall with a reach of 70 inches. His professional record is 24-7 with 8 knockouts and five wins by submission.

John Makdessi is a former USKBA gold medalist in 2006. After going 22-0 in kickboxing, he tried his luck in MMA and has fought professionally since 2008. After fighting for XMMA and Ringside MMA, he joined the UFC in 2010 and compiled an octagon record of 6-5 at the end of 2014. He’s won four out of his last five bouts and is coming off a win over Jesus Pinedo, his third straight win. Makdessi is 17-6 with nine wins by knockout. He stands 5-8 tall and has a reach of 68 inches.

Trinaldo is 2-1 in his last three fights but you could argue that he should be on a three-fight winning streak heading to this match. Although he lost by unanimous decision to Alexander Hernandez, 11 out of 13 media outlets though he won that bout. Despite being in his 40’s, Trinaldo showed in his last fight against Bobby Green that he still has more than enough left in the tank. He’s a physical fighter who likes to put the pressure on his opponents and has decent wrestling skills. Trinaldo’s skill set will make it difficult for Makdessi to get going with his kicking game and without that, this should be Trinaldo’s fight.

Prediction: Francisco Trinadlo

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