UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs Shahbazyan Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions

The UFC heads back to its Apex Facility in Las Vegas this weekend for UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs Shahbazyan o August 1, 2020.

In the main event, Top 10 middleweights Derek Brunson and Edmen Shahbazyan square off in a bout that will lead one of them closer to a title shot. This was supposed to be the co-main event of the night but after Irene Aldana tested positive for the COVID-19 virus, Holly Holm was pulled out from the event and the bout between Brunson and Shahbazyan was promoted to main event status. In the new co-main event, Joanne Calderwood takes on Jennifer Maia in the women’s flyweight division.

Let’s take a look at the main card and make our predictions and don’t forget to check out our picks for this event prelims undercard.

Derek Brunson vs Edmen Shahbazyan

Derek Brunson is the #8 ranked middleweight in the UFC. This former three-time NCAA Division II All-American wrestler from the University of North Carolina in Pembroke fought for Strikeforce and once challenged for the ShoFight Middleweight title. He joined the UFC in 2012 and has picked up an octagon record of 11-5. Overall, Brunson is 20-7 with 11 knockouts and three wins via submission. He went 2-0 in 2019 and is coming off a decision win over Ian Heinisch at UFC 241. Brunson is a southpaw who stands 6-1 tall and has a reach of 77 inches.

Edmen Shahbazyan is the 9th ranked middleweight in the UFC. The 22-year old from Glendale, California was a sparring partner of former UFC women’s bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey. He competed under CXF before getting invited to fight in the Contender Series. He is 4-0 with three stoppages under the UFC and he has an overall record of 11-0 with nine knockouts and one win via submission. The Golden Boy stands 6-2 tall with a reach of 74 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

Brunson is a tantalizing pick because he has knockout power and pushes a very good pace. However, he has blown hot and cold lately and his tendency to get careless on his feet has led to three knockouts in his last four losses. Brunson rushes too far and leaves his chin open when throwing his big punches. That’s going to be a problem against a calculated fighter like Shahbazyan who knows how to capitalize on his opponent’s weaknesses. I think that Shahbazyan catches Brunson’s chin in the middle rounds. I don’t think this is going the distance.

Prediction: Edmen Shahbazyan (-325)

Joanne Calderwood vs Jennifer Maia

Joanne Calderwood is a former IKF European champion and WBC Muay Thai champion who hails from Irvine, Scotland. She competed at The Ultimate Fighter 20 where she lost to former UFC women’s flyweight champion Rose Namajunas in the quarterfinals. This 33-year old orthodox fighter stands 5-6 tall and has a reach of 65 inches. Calderwood fought for Invicta FC and Cage Warriors before joining the UFC in 2014. She is 6-4 inside the octagon but has won three out of her last four bouts. Calderwood’s MMA record stands at 14-4 with five knockouts and one win via submission.

Jennifer Maia is the #6 ranked female flyweight in the UFC. This 31-year old Brazilian is a former professional boxer who transitioned to MMA after winning her first three professional boxing bouts. She fought for Cage Warriors and then later became the Invicta FC flyweight champion. She joined the UFC in 2018 and is 2-2 under the promotion. Maia has a record of 17-6 with three knockouts and five wins via submission. She is an orthodox fighter who stands 5-4 tall with a reach of 64 inches. Maia’s last two bouts have been catchweight bouts as she has missed weight in those fights.

Calderwood is the more proven fighter between these two. She is also the more well-rounded fighter and has more arsenal on the feet, owing to her kickboxing background. Likewise, her BJJ is also better and with all those advantages, she has a good shot at winning against a point fighter who doesn’t possess power. This is a fight that should go the distance and the more versatile fighter wins this.

Prediction: Joanne Calderwood (-144)

Vicente Luque vs Randy Brown

Vicente Luque is the 12th ranked welterweight in the UFC. He started his fighting career in Brazil and appeared for promotions such as Shooto Brazil and Jungle Fights. He was a contestant at The Ultimate Fighter: Team American Top Team vs Team Blackzilians where he lost in the semifinals to Hayder Hassan. After losing his UFC debut to Michael Graves, he has won 11 out of his last 13 bouts while earning Fight of the Night honors in three out of his last five bouts. Luque is 18-7 with 10 knockouts and six wins via submission. He stands 5-11 tall with a reach of 75 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

Randy Brown is a former Ring of Combat welterweight champion who joined the UFC in 2015 with a perfect record of 6-0 with six stoppages. This 30-year old from Springfield, Massachusetts has picked up six wins and three losses inside the UFC octagon. Brown’s overall record is 12-3 with six knockouts and four wins via submission. In his last bout, Brown submitted Warlley Alves at UFC Fight Night 164 to earn his first post-fight bonus. Brown is 6-3 tall with a reach of 78 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

Luque is favored in this bout because he has better boxing skills and based on what we saw a couple of months ago, he has more punching power than Brown. If this fight stays on the feet, I have no doubt that Luque will have more advantages. Brown though is a live dog because he is the bigger man and Luque will have to eat some of his shots to connect. I think Brown has a chance of a knockout win here but I trust Luque’s stand up game.

Prediction: Vicente Luque (-194)

Lando Vannata vs Bobby Green

Lando Vannata has been fighting since 2012 and he competed for Pancrase and the RFA before joining the UFC in 2016. He is 3-4-2 inside the octagon but has been in exciting fights with four post-fight bonuses earned. Overall, Vannata has a record of 11-4 with four knockouts and five wins via submission. He is coming off a unanimous decision win over Yancy Medeiros at UFC Fight Night 167 but that has been his only win since 2015. Vannata is an orthodox fighter who stands 5-9 tall with a reach of 71 inches.

Bobby Green is the former King of the Cage lightweight and welterweight champion who also fought for Tachi Palace Fights, Strikeforce, and Affliction. The 33-year old from San Bernardino, California joined the UFC in 2013 and won his first four UFC bouts. Since then though, he is only 2-5-1 but is coming off a unanimous decision win over Clay Guida. Green stands 5-10 tall with a reach of 71 inches and is an orthodox fighter. He has a record of 25-10 with eight knockouts and nine wins via submission.

These two fought to a draw at UFC 216 but Vannata should’ve won that bout had he not been deducted a point for an illegal knee. Vannata likes to brawl but that could be the wrong strategy against a very athletic fighter like Green who looked physically dominant in his last bout. These two are fighting in a smaller cage and I think that will be to Green’s advantage. Vannata doesn’t have good finishing abilities and is always in a close fight. Green’s output should beat him here.

Prediction: Bobby Green (+136)

Kevin Holland vs Trevin Giles

Kevin Holland is the XKO welterweight and middleweight champion. The 27-year old from Riverside, California also competed for Bellator, King of the Cage, and Legacy Fighting Alliance. He joined the Contender Series 9 in 2018 and earned a UFC contract. Holland is 4-2 under the UFC and he is coming off a win over Anthony Hernandez at UFC on ESPN 8 last May. Holland stands 6-3 tall with a reach of 81 inches and is an orthodox fighter. He has a record of 17-5 with 8 knockouts and six wins via submission.

Trevin Giles fought for Legacy FC, Fury Fighting, and RFA. He joined the UFC in 2017 and has amassed an octagon record of 3-2. The 27-year old from San Antonio in Texas is coming off a split decision win over James Krause at UFC 247 last February. He has a record of 12-2 with five knockouts and five wins via submission. Giles stands 6-0 tall with a reach of 74 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance.

These are two brawlers who are willing to stand and trade in the middle of the octagon. Both also have legit power and can finish this fight at any moment. The difference between them is that Holland is more experienced and has a more polished striking game. Giles is a very aggressive striker and Holland should be able to take advantage of that and drill him with counters. I think Holland finds the openings and beat Giles to the punch.

Prediction: Kevin Holland (-200)

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