UFC on ESPN: Holm vs Aldana 10/03/2020 UFC Betting Odds and Predictions

Former UFC women’s bantamweight champion Holly Holm returns to action against the 6th ranked female bantamweight in the UFC in Irene Aldana in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Holm vs Aldana or UFC Fight Island 4 on October 3, 2020, at the Flash Forum at Yas Island, Abu Dhabi.

Holm is 3-2 in her last two bouts but both her losses came in title fights against Amanda Nunes and Germaine de Randamie. In her last fight, the Preacher’s Daughter defeated Raquel Pennington via unanimous decision at UFC 246 last January. Meanwhile, Aldana lost to Pennington at UFC on ESPN 4 but has won back to back fights against Vanessa Melo and Ketlyn Vieira.

Let’s take a look at how these two fighters matchup:

Holly Holm vs Irene Aldana

Holly Holm is the former UFC women’s bantamweight champion. The Preacher’s Daughter was a multiple-time world boxing champion who made a total of 16 successful title defenses. The 38-year old from Albuquerque, New Mexico won the bantamweight belt at UFC 193 with a stunning knockout of Ronda Rousey. She lost the belt in her first title defense and has gone 3-5 since becoming a world champion.

Holm has a record of 13-5 with eight knockout wins. She stands 5-8 tall with a reach of 70 inches and is a southpaw fighter. Holm lands an average of 2.75 significant strikes per minute and has a 35% striking accuracy. She absorbs 2.8 significant strikes per minute and has a takedown defense of 57%. Holm averaged half a takedown per 15 minutes and has a takedown accuracy of 27% and a 76% takedown defense.

Irene Aldana is the 6th ranked female bantamweight in the UFC. The 32-year old from Culiacan in Mexico fought in Brazil and Mexico before settling down at the Invicta FC promotion. She challenged for the Invicta bantamweight title but was knocked out by Tonya Evinger. Aldana has won five out of her last six bouts and heads to this bout with a two-fight winning streak.

Aldana is 12-5 with six knockouts and three wins via submission. She is 5-8 tall with a reach of 69 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance. Aldana is a volume striker who lands an average of 6.16 significant strikes per minute at a 38% accuracy. She gets hit with an average of 5.92 significant strikes per minute with a 63% striking defense. Aldana has a takedown defense of 93% but she averages only 0.28 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 50% takedown accuracy.

Who Wins?

This is the classic old guard vs new generation matchup where the soon to be 39-year old Holm is looking to hold off the challenge of a prime Aldana. This could be an explosive matchup as Aldana is a technically sound and aggressive striker who likes to stalk her opponents and land her big bombs. On the other hand, Holm is a world champion boxer who can fight on her front foot or play matador and make advancing fighters pay for their aggression. Aldana doesn’t do much damage on the ground and Holm could use her superior wrestling to grind out a win. On the feet, Holm is still the better striker and I think she is too smart in the standup to get knocked out.

Prediction: Holly Holm

Other Fights in The Main Card

Yorgan de Castro vs Carlos Felipe

Yorgan de Castro competed in the third season of the Contender Series and earned a contract for his knockout win over Alton Meeks. He knocked out Justin Tafa at UFC 243 but was lackluster in his decision loss to Greg Hardy at UFC 249. He is 6-1 with five knockouts to his credit. De Castro is an orthodox fighter who stands 6-0 tall with a reach of 74 inches.

Carlos Felipe suffered his first loss in his last fight when he lost via decision to Sergey Spivak last July. That was his first bout since 2017 and this 25-year old from Brazil has a record of 8-1 with six knockouts. Felipe stands six feet tall with a reach of 75 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

These two fighters are physically similar to Felipe’s one-inch reach advantage as the only difference between these two. However, Felipe is nine years younger and in his only UFC bout, he’s looked busier than de Castro but in that fight, he also took more damage. Felipe has good wins in his resume but at this level, he is still an unknown. He has good boxing and some power but nothing more outside those. De Castro is more accurate and has better defense but he was a disappointment in his last bout. These are two fighters who have cardio issues and technical deficiencies. They also have knockout power. I think this could go either way and Felipe at plus money is a tempting option. However, I’ll take the under 1.5 rounds here.

Prediction: Under 1.5 (-115) at SportsBetting.ag

Germaine de Randamie vs Julianna Pena

Germaine de Randamie is the former UFC women’s lightweight champion and the current no. 1 ranked female bantamweight in the promotion. The 36-year old known as the Iron Lady from The Netherlands lost via unanimous decision to Amanda Nunes at UFC 245. Prior to that, she won five consecutive bouts. De Randamie has a record of 9-4 with four knockouts. She stands 5-9 tall with a reach of 71 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

Julianna Pena is the 4th ranked UFC female bantamweight. The 31-year old is the TUF 18 women’s bantamweight champion. Pena is 5-1 in her last six bouts with her only loss during that period coming at the hands of Valentina Schevchenko. Pena is 9-3 with three knockouts and three wins via submission. She stands 5-6 tall with a reach of 69 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance.

Pena has the striking advantages when you look at the stats. But De Randamie has a three-inch height and two-inch reach edge over the Venezuelan Vixen. De Randamie is also the more decorated striker and although she is much older, the Iron Lady has what it takes to win this. Pena has the better BJJ but she will need to keep De Randamie on the mat to win this fight. The Iron Lady is the more superior striker and her experience should help her fend off Pena’s attacks.

Prediction: Germaine de Randamie

Dequan Townsend vs Dusko Todorovic

Dequan Townsend is a veteran who fought for at the regional scene before joining the UFC last year. He’s 0-3 inside the octagon and has an overall record of 21-11 with 12 knockouts with five submissions. Townsend stands 6-3 tall with a reach of 79 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. The 34-year old from Lansing, Michigan is coming off a decision loss to Devin Clark earlier this year.

Dusko Todorovic fought exclusively in his native Serbia before joining the Contender Series season 3 where he won a decision over Teddy Ash. He was booked to fight John Phillips last year but the bout was postponed thrice. This will be his UFC debut and the 26-year old has a record of 9-0 with five knockouts and three wins via submission. Todorovic is an orthodox fighter who stands 6-1 tall with a 74-inch reach.

Townsend has a two-inch height and five-inch reach advantage over Todorovic. He is also the more experienced fighter, by a mile. However, Todorovic has more pop in his punches and is the much younger fighter here. Todorovic hasn’t fought in over a year but that should not be an issue here. Townsend is over 30-years old and has lost three straight bouts in the UFC. I’ll take the younger and hungrier lion here over an aging fighter who doesn’t have any momentum heading to the fight.

Prediction: Dusko Todorovic

Kyler Phillips vs Cameron Else

Kyler Phillips fought for CXF and LFA before joining the Contender Series. He proceeded to join the TUF 27 where he lost to eventual winner Brad Katona. He beat Gabriel Silva in his UFC debut earlier this year. Phillips is 7-1 with 4 knockouts and one win via submission. The 25-year old stands 5-8 tall with a reach of 72 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance.

Cameron Else is a veteran of BAMMA and Cage Warriors who also appeared for Bellator. The 29-year old from England has won seven of eight bouts including his last six. In his last bout Else submitted Brad Evans in 90 seconds at Fusion FC 32 last February. He has a record of 10-4 with six knockouts and four wins via submission. Else is 5-9 tall with a reach of 71 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

These two are well-matched, physically but Phillips is the younger fighter. However, Else’s wins have come against low-quality opposition and Phillips looked good in his only UFC fight. That’s not enough to say he’s good but it should be enough to pick him over an unknown fighter like Else. I think that Else has a padded record and Phillips has a better all-around arsenal. Unless Else gets a quick finish here, I like Phillips to win in a fight that goes the distance.

Prediction: Kyler Phillips

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