UFC on ESPN: Alistair Overeem vs Walt Harris Main Card Betting Odds and Picks

This event will take place on May 16, at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida. The main event is expected to be a heavyweight bout between the 2010 K-1 World Grand Prix Champion, former Strikeforce Heavyweight Champion and UFC Heavyweight Championship challenger Alistair Overeem and Walt Harris.

Let’s take a look at the main card of UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Harris and pick our winners:

Alistair Overeem vs Walt Harris

Alistair Overeem is the former Strikeforce, DREAM, and K-1 Heavyweight champion. The 39-year old Dutchman is one of only two fighters to hold world titles in kickboxing and MMA at the same time. He’s fought 63 times as a pro and has beaten former champions like Andre Arlovski, Junior Dos Santos, Frank Mir, Brock Lesnar, Fabricio Werdum, and Vitor Belfort.

The Demolition man stands 6-4 tall and has a reach of 80 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. He has a record of 45-18 with 23 knockouts and 17 wins via submission. Overeem has lost three out of his last five bouts with all defeats coming via knockout. In his last fight, he was leading on points when he got knocked out by Jairzinho Rozenstruik with four seconds left in round five.

Reem lands an average of 3.54 significant strikes per minute at a 62% accuracy. He has a 59% striking defense and gets hit by an average of 2.15 significant strikes per minute. Overeem completes 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 59% takedown accuracy. He also has a takedown defense of 73%.

Walt Harris is the 9th ranked heavyweight in the UFC. The 36-year old from Alabama has been fighting since 2011 and also fought for Titan FC after his first tour of duty with the UFC. He’s lost just twice in his last eight bouts and has won back to back bouts heading to this contest.

Harris is 6-5 with a reach of 77 inches and fights as an orthodox fighter. He owns a record of 13-7 with all of his victories coming by way of knockout. Win or lose, five out of his last seven bouts have ended in round one. Harris also has 11 first-round knockout victories including his last two which lasted in a combined 62 seconds.

Harris averages 2.96 significant strikes per minute but is only 38% accurate with his strikes. He absorbs 2.68 significant strikes per minute and has a takedown defense of 61%. Harris doesn’t have much of a ground game as he averages just 0.35 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 33% takedown accuracy. However, he has a good takedown defense is at 76%.

Overeem is a calculated assassin. He doesn’t rush things and patiently reads his opponent’s style. His leg kicks are among the most powerful in the game and despite his age, he still has pop in his punches. Harris is a more aggressive fighter. He likes to move forward but waits on the outside waiting to land his counter punches. He has good movement for a guy his size and he has fast hands for a heavyweight. Overeem can fight at a distance and avoid getting drilled. If he does that, he has the tools and experience to beat Harris on points.

Prediction: Alistair Overeem (+135)

Claudia Gadelha vs Angela Hill

Claudia Gadelha is the 6th ranked UFC strawweight and the 15th ranked female pound for pound fighter in the UFC. The 31-year old Brazilian is a three-time world Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu champion and won the first-ever women’s strawweight fight in the UFC. She challenged and lost to Joanna Jedrzejczyk at the finale of TUF 23.

Gadelha stands 5-4 tall with a reach of 63 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance. She owns a record of 17-4 with two knockouts and seven wins via submission. She has split her last four bouts and is coming off a unanimous decision win over Rona Markos at UFC 239.

The Brazilian averages 3.34 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a 47% success rate with her takedowns. Gadelha has a takedown defense of 58% and a striking defense of 58%. She lands 3.17 significant strikes per minute at a 42% striking accuracy.

Angela Hill was the former Invicta FC strawweight champion and a former World Kickboxing Association champion. She competed in The Ultimate Fighter season 20 and is currently ranked 15th in the UFC’s strawweight division.

Overkill stands 5-3 tall and has a reach of 64 inches and is an orthodox fighter. She has a record of 12-7 with five knockouts and has won three consecutive bouts after losing five out of eight fights since her return to the UFC. Hill is coming off a unanimous decision win over Loma Lookbonmee at UFC Fight Night 168 last February.

Hill connects with an average of 5.74 significant strikes per minute at a 49% striking accuracy and has a 64% striking defense. She doesn’t have much of a takedown game but has a very good 72% takedown defense.

Hill puts up a frenetic pace and she uses pressure to back up her opponents and break them down. She sticks and moves very well and has one of the best boxing games in the female divisions. However, this style also forces here to absorb plenty of damage. That could be a problem against Gadelha who has power in her strikes despite having only two knockout wins. Gadelha should take this fight to the ground where she averages over three takedowns per 15 minutes. Once she’s on top, Gadelha should dominate this fight and win.

Prediction: Claudia Gadelha (-200)

Edson Barboza vs Dan Ige

Edson Barboza is one of the best strikers in the lower weight divisions. He is currently ranked 11th in the lightweight division. The 34-year old Brazilian is a former Renaissance MMA and Ring of Combat lightweight champion. He co-owns the record for most knockout wins in the lightweight division with seven.

Barboza is a tall lightweight at 5-11 with a reach of 75 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance. He has a record of 20-8 with 12 knockouts and one win via submission. However, he has not won since 2017 and has dropped four out of his last five contests. In his last fight at UFC 242, Barboza lost to Paul Felder via split decision.

Dan Ige is the 15th ranked lightweight in the UFC. This 28-year old Hawaiian is a veteran who has fought in various promotions like the Legacy Fighting Championship, RFA, and Titan FC. He is an alumnus of Dana White’s Contender Series 3 in 2017.

Ige stands 5-7 tall with a reach of 71 inches and is an orthodox fighter. He owns a record of 13-2 with three knockouts and five wins by way of submission. After losing his UFC debut to Julio Arce, Ige has picked up five consecutive victories inside the octagon. In his last bout, he won a split decision over Mirsad Bektic.

Barboza is one of the best strikers ever in this weight class. Not only that, but he also carries a lot of power in his punches and leg kicks. However, he’s been beaten up lately because he’s focused too much on kicking and has let his defensive guard down. Ige is a come-forward fighter who likes his opponents to engage with him. He is an excellent boxer whose hooks are his most dangerous punches. Ige has good wrestling but I think this will be fought on the feet and Barboza has a better striking arsenal.

Prediction: Edson Barboza (-135)

Eryk Anders vs Krzysztof Jotko

Eryk Anders is a former NCAA football player who won the Legacy Fighting Alliance middleweight championship in 2017. He joined the UFC after winning the belt and made a rousing debut by knocking out Rafael Natal at UFC on Fox 25.

Anders is a southpaw who stands 6-1 tall and has a reach of 75 inches. He has a record of 13-4 with eight knockouts and one win via submission. After losing four out of five bouts from 2018 to April 2019, he has bounced back with a pair of wins over Vinicius Moreira and Gerald Meerschaert.

Krzysztof Jotko fought mostly in Poland before coming over to the UFC in 2013. The 30-year old Polish mixed martial artist won six out of his first seven UFC bouts before suffering a three-bout losing skid in 2017. Jotko is coming off a split decision win over Marc-Andre Barriault.

This southpaw fighter stands 6-1 tall and has a reach of 77 inches. He has a record of 21-4 with six knockouts and one win via submission. He has gone the distance in four out of his last six bouts and has won three of those decisions.

Anders is a tough fighter who presses forward but isn’t too aggressive. He uses feints while looking for opportunities to launch his assault. He has plenty of power in his punches but he can be sloppy, especially when he loads up on his big punches. Jotko is a more active fighter who creates distance so he can set up his powerful kicks. However, he is vulnerable to power punches because he lacks head movement. I think Jotko’s activity and kicks will be the key to this fight.

Prediction: Krzysztof Jotko (-165)

Marlon Vera vs Yadong Song

Marlon Vera is the 14th ranked bantamweight in the UFC. the 27-year old from Ecuador first appeared in The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America where he was forced out of the semi-finals with an injury.

Vera stands 5-8 tall with a reach of 70 inches and is a switch hitter. He has a record of 15-5 with five knockouts and seven submission victories. After suffering back to back losses to Jon Lineker and Douglas Silva De Lima, he has picked up five straight victories, all by stoppage inside two rounds.

Yadong Song is the 13th ranked bantamweight in the UFC. This 22-year old from China fought for RUFF, ONE FC, and WLF before coming over to the UFC in 2017. He has been awarded three Performance of the Night bonuses in five UFC bouts.

Song stands 5-8 tall and has a reach of 67 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. He owns a record of 15-4-1-1 with six knockouts and three wins via submission. He is unbeaten in his last eight bouts although his last bout ended in a majority draw after he was deducted one point for an illegal knee.

Vera is a very calm man inside the octagon. He is unorthodox yet explosive and likes to throw long kicks. Vera is effective when he attacks but when he is under pressure, he tends to cover up and doesn’t fire back. Song is fast and uses a variety of strikes to attack his foes. He likes to throw strikes in bunches and has outstruck four out of his last five opponents. I like Yadong Song here. He has more volume and also his punches have the bigger pop.

Prediction: Yadong Song (-200)

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