UFC Vegas 26: Rodriguez vs Waterson Main Card Odds, Preview, and Picks

The UFC returns to the APEX Facility in Las Vegas this Saturday for UFC Vegas 26.

The event lost its main event and co-main event after T.J. Dillashaw suffered an injury and his fight against Cory Sandhagen was pushed back. The co-main event was also lost after a controversy that led to Diego Sanchez’s ouster from the UFC roster.

As it stands, the new main event is a showdown between Top 10 strawweight Marina Rodriguez and Michelle Waterson.

Marina Rodriguez vs Michelle Waterson

Marina Rodriguez is the 6th ranked strawweight in the UFC. The 34-year old Brazilian spent the early part of her career fighting in her homeland before joining the Contender Series Brazil 2 where she picked up a KO win over Maria de Oliveira Natal and earned a UFC contract. Rodriguez is 3-1-2 inside the Octagon and is coming off a TKO win over Amanda Ribas. She is 5-6 tall with a reach of 65 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance.

Michelle Waterson is ranked 9th in the UFC women’s strawweight division and is a former Invicta FC atomweight champion. The 35-year old Karate Hottie joined the UFC in 2015 and has compiled a 7-4 Octagon record. After suffering back-to-back losses to Joana Jedrzejczyk and Carla Esparza, Waterson defeated Angela Hill in her last bout. She has a record of 18-8 with 3 knockouts and 9 submission wins. Waterson is 5-3 tall with a reach of 62 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

This should be a fun fight as both fighters are terrific strikers. Waterson is a very technical fighter who is coming off a Fight of the Night effort in her last outing. Meanwhile, Rodriguez possesses fight-ending punching power while will trouble Waterson on the feet. Although she prefers to strike, I think Waterson would like to take this fight to the ground where she stands to gain more success.

If this fight goes past three rounds, Waterson might have the chance to pull off the upset. The Karate Hottie has the better gas tank and she should be able to defend takedown attempts and Rodriguez has never gone five rounds.

All things considered, I think Rodriguez’s striking is still too good. She should be able to land the shots that catch the judges’ attention. It won’t be a walk in the park but I will go with Rodriguez here.

Prediction: Marina Rodriguez

Donald Cerrone vs Alex Morono

Donald Cerrone is one of the most popular fighters in the history of the UFC. The 38-year old known as Cowboy is the 15th ranked lightweight in the UFC. The owner of several UFC longevity records, Cerrone heads to this fight winless in his last five outings with four losses during that period. Overall he has a record of 36-15 with 10 knockouts and 17 submissions. Cowboy is 6-1 with a reach of 73 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

Alex Morono is a former Legacy FC welterweight champion. The 30-year old from Houston joined the UFC in 2016 and is 7-4 with one no-contest under the promotion. Morono has lost two out of his last three bouts and is coming off a December loss to Anthony Pettis. He is 18-7 with five knockouts and six submission wins. Morono is an orthodox fighter who stands 5-11 tall with a reach of 72 inches.

Cerrone going 15 minutes against Nico Price answered questions on what’s left of Cowboy’s durability. Cerrone completely outclasses Morono in striking skills and Morono doesn’t have the wrestling game to make this a fight on the ground. I think Cerrone is going to force Morono to fight on the feet where he’ll likely pick Morono apart with his striking. Cerrone is 38 but he has all the advantages plus Morono took this fight on five days’ notice.

Prediction: Donald Cerrone

Neil Magny vs Geoff Neal

Neil Magny is ranked 9th in the UFC welterweight division. The 33-year old from Brooklyn first appeared in the TUF 16 tournament. Magny has won 16 out of his last 20 UFC bouts and has a record of 24-8 with even knockouts and three submission victories. After a USADA suspension, Magny won three in a row before he suffered a loss to Michael Chiesa. He is 6-3 tall with a reach of 80 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

Geoff Neal is the 10th ranked welterweight in the UFC. The 30-year old from Austin, Texas earned his UFC contract via the Contender Series and opened his UFC career with five straight wins before suffering his first Octagon defeat against Stephen Thompson in his last bout. Neal has a record of 13-3 with 8 knockouts and three submission wins. He is a southpaw who stands 5-11 tall with a reach of 75 inches.

Ever since his suspension, Magny has looked good and he picked up three straight wins before losing to Chiesa, who out grappled him for five rounds. He won’t face the same style against Neal, which should be to his liking. But while Magny’s chin has looked more solid than ever, I still don’t like his chances against a powerful Geoff Neal, Magny’s tendency to put his hands down will put him in danger here. Neal is good at closing the distance and he’s going to land that big punch early in this fight.

Prediction: Geoff Neal

Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs Maurice Greene

Marcos Rogerio de Lima fought for Strikeforce and appeared in the Contender Series. The 35-year old Brazilian is just a modest 6-5 inside the UFC Octagon and has an overall record of 17-7 with 12 knockouts and 3 submission victories. He was submitted by Alexander Romanov in his last bout and five of his seven losses have been by tap out. De Lima is 6-1 with a reach of 75 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance.

Maurice Greene is an alumnus of the TUF 28 TV series who also competed for GLORY Kickboxing. The 34-year old from Norfolk opened his UFC career with three straight wins but is just 1-3 ever since. Coming off a loss to Greg Hardy, Greene is 9-5 with two knockouts and five submission wins. He is 6-7 tall with a reach of 80 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

Greene doesn’t have the takedown offense to help slow down de Lima, who has a non-existent ground game. We’ve seen Greene get torn apart by strikers who have plenty of pop in their punches. De Lima hits harder than any striker Greene has ever faced. I think de Lima knocks out Greene before the former falls into his old habit of self-destructing.

Prediction: Marcos Rogerio de Lima

Carlos Diego Ferreira vs Gregor Gillespie

Carlos Diego Ferreira is the 12th ranked lightweight in the UFC. The 36-year old Brazilian is a former Legacy FC lightweight champion who joined the UFC in 2014. Ferreira saw a six-fight winning streak ended by Beneil Dariush via split decision in his last outing. Ferreira has a record of 17-3 with three knockouts and seven submission wins. He is an orthodox fighter who is 5-9 tall with a reach of 74 inches.

Gregor Gillespie is a former NCAA Division I wrestling champion and the former Ring of Combat lightweight champion. The 34-year old joined the UFC in 2016 and won his first six UFC bouts before he was knocked out by Kevin Lee in his last bout. Gillespie has a record of 13-1 with six knockouts and five submission wins. He is 5-7 tall with a reach of 71 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

You can’t overlook Ferreira here because of the plus money and the fact that he has good BJJ background which can help him wear his opponent down. But when you compare these two fighters, Gillespie is clearly the more balanced fighter. Gillespie should be the one to find success in his takedowns and he also has the clear advantage when it comes to striking. With more ways to win this fight, I’ll lay the juice with Gilespie.

Prediction: Gregor Gillespie

Amanda Ribas vs Angela Hill

Amanda Ribas is the 11th ranked strawweight in the UFC. This 27-year old from Brazil is a former Jungle Fight strawweight champion. Ribas won her first four Octagon assignments before suffering a knockout loss to Marina Rodriguez in her most recent outing. She is 10-2 with three knockouts and four submission wins. Ribas is 5-3 tall with a reach of 66 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance.

Angela Hill is the 11th ranked strawweight in the UFC. The 36-year old is a former World Kickboxing Association champion who also won the Invicta FC strawweight title. Hill after opening her UFC career with a 3-5 record, she’s won four out of her last six bouts and is coming off a win over Ashley Yoder. Hill is 3-9 with five knockouts. She is 5-3 tall with a reach of 64 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

Hill is a striker who mixed her Muay Thai with good footwork. She throws nice combinations and throws effective strikes from all ranges. Her wrestling has improved but against Ribas, she needs to keep this fight standing to have a shot at winning. Ribas is a BJJ black belt and against Hill’s Muay Thai, she needs to keep this fight down on the mat. With Hill mixing a lot of kicks and knees to her attack, those could be used to initiate takedowns. Ribas needs just one takedown to control her opponents. Whether it’s by submission or a grind-out win, I’m going with Ribas.

Prediction: Amanda Ribas

Place Your Bets Now!