UFC Vegas 38 Main Card Odds and Predictions

UFC action returns to the APEX Facility in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 38 on Saturday night.

In the main event, dangerous Brazilian contenders Thiago Santos and Johnny Walker will face off in a five-round bout that has all the makings of a barnburner. Both men are looking to re-establish themselves after championship failures but unfortunately, only one of them will move forward.

2020 breakout fighter Kevin Holland will attempt to end a two-fight skid when he faces Kyle Daukaus in the co-main event. Meanwhile, another exciting bout is expected when Cowboy Oliveira faces Niko Price in the third bout of the main card while Misha Cirkunov makes his 185-pound debut against Krzysztof Jotko in a three-round feature.

Let’s take a look at the UFC Vegas 38 main card and make our predictions.

Thiago Santos vs Johnny Walker

Thiago Santos is the no. 5 ranked light heavyweight in the UFC. The 38-yeard old Brazilian is a former title challenger who lost to Jon Jones at UFC 239. Santo suffered multiple leg injuries in that fight and has gone on to lose his last two bouts, getting submitted by Glover Teixeira at UFC Vegas 13 and losing on points to Aleksandar Rakic at UFC 259.

Santos has a record of 21-9 with 15 knockouts and one submission win. He is 6-2 tall with a reach of 76 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance.

Johnny Walker is the no. 10 ranked light heavyweight in the UFC. The 29-year old from Rio de Janeiro earned his UFC contract via the Contender Series. He won his first three UFC bouts via knockout but suffered an upset loss against Cory Anderson at UFC 244. He lost two in a row after getting outpointed by Nikita Krylov but returned to the winner’s circle with a KO win over Ryan Spann in September 2020.

Walker is 18-5 with 15 knockouts and two submission wins. He is 6-6 tall with an 82-inch reach and fights out of the orthodox stance.

Santos is pure knockout power and although he is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, he rarely taps that part of this game because he has not needed it. He likes to keep the fight on the feet and go toe-to-toe with his opponents. He has great durability and will find ways to win.

Walker is also a very powerful striker. He has a significant four-inch height and six-inch reach advantage here. He is also very mobile and athletic for a big guy. Walker likes to move forward and put pressure on his opponents.

I think either fighter can win this fight because of their knockout power. But I like Walker here because of his size advantage and because his recent form is better. Santos is already 38 and coming off injuries. Walker is hungrier and Santos’ style is tailor-made to make Walker look good. Of course, there’s the plus money factor as well.

Prediction: Johnny Walker

Kevin Holland vs Kyle Daukaus

Kevin Holland is the no. 14 ranked middleweight in the UFC. The 28-year old from California is a former XKO middleweight champion who joined the UFC in 2018. Holland started his UFC career with a 3-2 record but had a breakout year in 2020 where he went 5-0. 2021 has been a different story as he is winless in two bouts.

Trailblazer has a record of 21-7 with 12 knockouts and five submission wins. He is 6-3 tall with an impressive 81-inch reach and is an orthodox fighter.

Kyle Daukaus is the younger brother of heavyweight prospect Chris Daukaus. This 28-year old from Philadelphia is a former Cage Fury middleweight champion who joined the UFC in 2020 after two successful title defenses. He is just 1-2 inside the Octagon and is coming off a decision loss to Phil Hawes last May 8th.

Daukaus is 6-3 tall with a 76-inch reach and fights out of the southpaw stance. He has a record of 10-2 with 8 submission wins.

Finally, Holland gets a break after being matched up against opponents who were good wrestlers and took advantage of his lack of wrestling. He also has a five-inch reach advantage which could be very useful in a striking battle.

Daukaus is a more well-rounded fighter. He is a good grappler but doesn’t have the elite wrestling skills that gave Holland problems in his recent bouts. Daukaus also isn’t a dangerous striker although he can survive a three-round striking affair.

I think Daukaus will be able to take Holland down. I’m not just sure how he finishes him. This fight will keep returning back to the feet where Holland has a significant edge. I think Holland finally gets a break and a win.

Prediction: Kevin Holland

Alex Oliveira vs Niko Price

Alex Oliveira fought in his native Brazil before joining the UFC in 2015 where he lost to Gilbert Burns in his UFC debut. The 33-year old Cowboy won his next three bouts before losing to the UFC’s one and only Cowboy Cerrone. He’s had a decent UFC run but has struggled with only two wins in his last seven bouts. Three of his losses during that stretch have been via submission.

Oliveira is 22-10 with 12 knockouts and five submission wins. He is an orthodox fighter who is 5-11 tall with a reach of 76 inches.

Niko Price is a former Fight Tim welterweight champion who joined the UFC in 2016. The 32-year old from Florida had a good start to his UFC career, posting a 5-2 record with one no-contest in his first eight bouts. However, Price is just 2-4 with one no-contest in his last seven bouts and heads to this bout without a win since October 2019.

Price has a record of 14-5 with 10 knockouts and three submission victories. He is six feet tall with a reach of 76 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance.

Oliveira is always fun to watch because he never backs down from a firefight. However, he is notorious for fading in his bouts. And if he can’t put out Price in one round, he’s going to be in trouble here. Well, unless of course, he can take the fight down and dominate with his wrestling.

Like Oliveira, Price has that wild side. He is an unorthodox striker but also has knockout power and good durability. He likes to put pressure on his opponents and is willing to eat some punches in order to land some of his big shots.

Oliveira’s best chance is the opening round. If it goes beyond that, I won’t bet a single penny on him. He fades faster than a speeding train and does so especially when under pressure. Price has the ability to do that to him. And he will.

Prediction: Niko Price

Misha Cirkunov vs Krzysztof Jotko

Misha Cirkunov is the no. 13 ranked light heavyweight in the UFC. The 34-year old Latvian-Canadian fighter is a former Hard Knocks light heavyweight champion who joined the UFC in 2015. Cirkunov won his first four UFC bouts but is just 2-5 in his last seven Octagon appearances and is coming off a TKO loss to Ryan Spann last March 13th.

Cirkunov has a record of 15-6 with five knockouts and eight submission wins. He is an orthodox fighter who stands 6-3 tall with a 77-inch reach.

Krzysztof Jotko fought mostly in Poland before joining the UFC in 2013. This 32-year old started his UFC career with a 6-1 record but is just 3-4 in his last seven bouts and is coming off a decision loss to Sean Strickland in his last bout last May 1st.

Jotko is 22-5 with six knockouts and one submission loss. He is 6-1 tall with a 77-inch reach and fights out of the orthodox stance.

Cirkunov has great wrestling and is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt. He also has some power on his feet but isn’t made for striking because his durability in taking punches is a question mark.

Jotko is more well-rounded. He too has some power and is decent on the feet. He has done well against BJJ fighters but has struggled with the sprawl and brawl style.

Cirkunov has the edge in wrestling. He also is the better grappler but he’s moving down to 185, which is interesting because he’s 34. If he survives the weight cut, Jotko will be wise to move around the cage and strike from a distance. The new weight class could be an issue and Jotko has the ability to overwhelm opponents with volume or power.

Prediction: Krzysztof Jotko

Aspen Ladd vs Macy Chiasson

Aspen Ladd is the no. 3 ranked female bantamweight in the UFC. The 26-year old from California fought under Invicta FC before joining the UFC in 2017. Overall, she won her first 8 bouts before getting knocked out by former featherweight champion Germaine de Randamie. Ladd defeated Yana Kunitskaya via TKO in her most recent bout.

She has a record of 9-1 with six knockouts and one win via submission. Ladd is an orthodox fighter who stands 5-6 tall with a 66-inch reach.

Macy Chiasson is the tournament winner of The Ultimate Fighter 28 show. The 30-year old from New Orleans is the no. 11 ranked bantamweight contender. Chiasson is 4-1 in the UFC with her only loss coming at the hands of Lina Lansberg via decision in 2019. She heads to this bout coming off back-to-back wins over Shanna Young and Marion Reneau.

Chiasson is 7-1 with two knockouts and two submission losses. She is 5-11 tall with a reach of 72 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance.

Ladd will look to wrestle here and it’s going to work for her. But we’ve seen her struggle late in fights, probably because of her tiring style and big weight cut. This fight could be a problem if it goes the distance.

Chiasson is a physical specimen and she likes to use her brute against her opponents. She is very good on her feet and excels when fighting in the clinch. Chiasson is also a very good finisher when she sees the opportunity.

If Chiasson stuffs the takedown attempts, her size and ability in the clinch will be her path to victory. However, Ladd is younger and she looks to be more durable and determined.

Prediction: Aspen Ladd

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