UFC Vegas 44 Main Card Odds and Predictions

The UFC heads to its APEX Facility in Las Vegas for UFC Vegas 44 on Saturday night.

In the main event former UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo looks to pick up a big win as he tests the streaking Rob Font who has won four straight bouts. In the co-main event, a terrific showdown between exciting fighters Brad Riddell and Rafael Fiziev will spice up the evening while veterans Clay Guida and Leonardo Santos throw down in the main card.

Let’s take a look at the bouts on the main card of UFC Vegas 44 and make our predictions.

Jose Aldo vs Rob Font

Jose Aldo needs no introduction. Junior is the inaugural UFC featherweight champion who had two reigns as champion in the UFC. Aldo made seven successful title defenses in his first reign before he lost to Conor McGregor. Aldo became champion again when he beat Frankie Edgar at UFC 200 for the interim belt. He moved down to bantamweight and is coming off back-to-back wins against Chito Vera and Pedro Munhoz.

Aldo is no. 5 in the latest bantamweight rankings. He has a record of 30-7 with 17 knockouts and one submission win. He is 5-7 tall with a reach of 70 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance.

Rob Font is the no. 4 ranked bantamweight in the UFC. The 34-year old from Leominster, Massachusetts is a former CES MMA Featherweight champion who joined the UFC in 2014. After a 5-3 start to his Octagon career, he has won four straight bouts including back-to-back wins over Marlon Moraes and Cody Garbrandt.

Font has a record of 19-4 with 8 knockouts and four submission wins. He is 5-8 tall with a reach of 71 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance.

Aldo has experienced a career resurgence after the McGregor loss. Even at an advanced age, Junior is still that powerful and technical striker we’ve always known him to be. In his recent bouts, however, we’ve seen him use his kicking game less often as he has preferred to box with his opponents. No question, his boxing is better now than when he was champion. But this focus has made him flat-footed.

Font is taller and longer and he should pose problems for Aldo in the striking department. He also uses a crisp jab and explosive combinations that can end a fight in a hurry. If Font can stay away from Aldo’s crippling body punches, he should be able to score at will from range. Either Font paws away and wins an easy decision or he tires Aldo and gets the finish late in the bout.

Prediction: Rob Font

Brad Riddell vs Rafael Fiziev

Brad Riddell is the no. 12 ranked lightweight in the UFC. The 30-year old from Christchurch, New Zealand is a former Wollongong Wars welterweight champion. He joined the UFC in 2019 and is 4-0 so far inside the Octagon. Riddell defeated Drew Dober in his most recent bout at UFC 263.

Riddell has a record of 10-1 with five knockouts. He is 5-7 tall and has a reach of 71 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance.

Rafael Fiziev is the no. 14 ranked lightweight in the UFC. The 28-year old from Kazakhstan is a former Muay Thai champion who fought Road FC and Titan FC before joining the UFC in 2019. After losing to Magomed Mustafaev in his UFC debut, FIziev has won his last four assignments. In his most recent outing, Fiziev defeated Bobby Green at UFC 263.

Fiziev has a record of 10-1 with six knockouts and one submission win. He stands 5-8 tall with a 71-inch reach and is a switch hitter.

Riddell has natural punching power, excellent cardio, and the ability to stick to a game plan in the middle of a war. In recent fights, he’s shown patience and a much better fight IQ. With his willingness to use his various skills rather than rely on his power, Riddell has become a problem for the division. Fiziev is an elite striker who owns one of the best kicking games in the business. He is fast, fluid, and lands clean strikes while having a 100% takedown defense.

The problem for Riddell here is he may not be able to take this fight to the ground. And even if he does, he doesn’t have the elite tools to pull off a win on the ground. I think Fiziev keeps this on the feet where he will land first and land more shots than his opponent. Give me Fiziev to outstrike Riddell on th feet.

Prediction: Rafael Fiziev

Clay Guida vs Leonardo Santos

Clay Guida was the inaugural Strikeforce lightweight champion. The 39-year old from Round Lake, Illinois has been fighting since 2003 and was a holdover during the WEC merger. Guida has notable wins over the likes of Rafael Dos Anjos, Takanori Gomi, Nate Diaz, Josh Thompson, Joe Lauzon, B.J. Penn, and Michael Johnson. The Carpenter heads to this bout with 4 losses in his last six bouts.

Guida has a record of 36-21 with seven knockouts and 13 submission victories. He is 5-7 tall with a reach of 70 inches and fights from the orthodox stance.

Leonardo Santos competed for World Victory Road, BAMMA, and was the winner of The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 2 tournament. The 41-year old from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil went undefeated in his first eight UFC bouts with seven wins. However, Santos was brutally knocked out by Grant Dawson in his last bout last March 20th.

Santos has a record of 18-4 with 3 knockouts and 9 submission wins. He is six feet tall with a reach of 75 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance.

Guida is already 39 years old but he continues to look solid and he just recently took a top prospect in Mark Madsen to the brink in a 15-minute war. Wrestling remains to be his strength although he’s learned how to sit on his punches in recent years. Santos has relied on his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Muay Thai in most of his fights but after his seven-year unbeaten streak, his first loss was a violent one. In his recent bouts, he’s slowed down noticeably and has looked fatigued after the opening round.

I’m not discounting the possibility that he lands big and ends the fight early. But Guida still looks very durable and his wrestling and volume punching will take advantage of a fatiguing Santos. Give me the Carpenter to grind out a win here.

Prediction: Clay Guida

Jim Crute vs Jamahal Hill

Jim Crute is a former Hex Fighting Series light heavyweight champion in Australia. This 25-year old from New South Wales, Australia joined the UFC in 2018 via the Contender Series where he scored a first-round TKO win over Chris Birchler. Crute is 4-2 in the UFC and is coming off a TKO ( doctor stoppage ) loss to Anthony Smith at UFC 261.

Crute is 12-2 with five knockouts and four submission wins. He is 6-2 tall and has a reach of 74 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance.

Jamahal Hill is the no. 14 ranked light heavyweight in the UFC. The 30-year old from Chicago, Illinois is a former Knockout Promotions light heavyweight champion. He joined the UFC via the Contender Series where he scored a knockout of Alexander Poppeck to earn a UFC contract. Hill won his first three UFC bouts, had one overturned to a no-contest after he failed a drug test. In his last bout. Hil was knocked out by Paul Craig at UFC 263.

Hill has a record of 8-1 with four knockouts. He is 6-4 tall with a reach of 79 inches and is a southpaw fighter.

Hill is long and rangy for the division he is fighting in. He prefers to fight on the feet and half of his wins have been by knockout. Hill likes to throw combinations and hard straight hands before unloading his big punches. However, Crute has the kickboxing and punching power to match Hill. His wrestling and jiu-jitsu are way far better than Hill’s and Crute has a more varied attack.

I think Crute’s striking will be good enough to make this an even fight on the feet. But Crute will mix his game plan with takedowns and top control which should be the difference in this fight.

Prediction: Jim Crute

Brendan Allen vs Chris Curtis

Brendan Allen is a former middleweight champion at Legacy Fighting Alliance. The 25-year old from Beaufort, South Carolina was also the 2015 IMMAF middleweight champion. He joined the UFC after picking up a submission win over Aaron Jeffrey in the Contender Series. Allen is 5-1 in the UFC with his only loss coming against Sean Strickland. He is coming off a decision win over Punahele Soriano last July 24th.

Allen is 17-4 with five knockouts and nine submission wins. He is 6-2 tall with a reach of 75 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

Chris Curtis fought under Z Promotions, CES MMA, and for the Professional Fighters League. He joined the UFC this year and won his debut against Phil Hawes via knockout at UFC 268. Curtis has won his last six bouts including five via knockout.

Curtis is 5-10 tall with a reach of 75 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance. He has a record of 27-9 with 15 knockouts and one submission win.

Curtis took a short notice fight and won, and now he’s in the UFC. He is a good kickboxer with above-average punching power. However, he’s did his best work at welterweight and this will be a middleweight bout. Allen used to rely on his grappling to come up with stoppage wins but his striking has improved greatly under Henri Hooft. He is also the more durable fighter and is fighting in his natural weight class.

No disrespect but I think Curtis needs a knockout here to win. Allen has this under control. He will take the fight to the mat when he wants to. Once he gets to top position, he’s going to throw those hammer fists and possibly end this fight early.

Prediction: Brendan Allen

Bryan Barberena vs Darian Weeks

Bryan Barberena fought for King of Cage, Dakota FC, and KOTC. The 32-yea old from Montclair, California joined the UFC in 2014 but has struggled to find consistency inside the Octagon. Barberena is just 3-5 in his last eight UFC bouts and he is coming off a majority decision loss to Jason Witt last July 31st.

Barberena has a record of 15-8 with 10 knockouts and two submission wins. He is a southpaw who is six feet tall and has a reach of 72 inches.

Darian Weeks fought at LFA Cageside Promotions and Midwest Fight League before joining the UFC. The 28-year old from Sedalia, Missouri is a newcomer who only has five MMA bouts and is undefeated with all of his wins coming via stoppage – 3 knockouts and 2 submissions.

Weeks is 5-11 tall with a reach of 72 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

Barberena is always an entertaining fighter with his wild style and durability, He throws caution to the win when he launches his offense which makes him vulnerable to get taken down. However, his opponent here likes to strike more than fight on the mat. Weeks has finished all five of his fights so we know how he is going to approach this one. He will be making his UFC debut so look for him to impress.

Weeks will try to land his big bombs on Barberena. But having seen Barberena withstand bigger punchers before. I think he will walk Weeks down here and stay in front of his opponent. I reckon that Barberena is the more durable fighter here. It’s going to be a brawl that Barberena wins.

Prediction: Bryan Barberena

Place Your Bets Now!