UFC Vegas 51 Main Card Betting Predictions

This weekend’s UFC event will take us to the APEX Facility in Las Vegas, Nevada where top welterweight contenders Belal Muhammad and Vicente Luque will lock horns in the main event for a rematch of their UFC 205 bout that ended in a knockout win for Luque.

A lot has changed since their first meeting. Muhammad has lost just once in 12 bouts since that loss while Luque has dropped only two out of 12 bouts during that stretch. Both men have moved up the ladder and are now close to the top with Luque at no. 5 and Muhammad at no. 6. However, only one of them is moving higher on the rankings after Saturday night.

In the co-main event, middleweight prospects and Contender Series alumni Caio Borralho and Gadzhi Omargadzhiev will face off in their first-ever UFC appearances. Meanwhile a pair of veteran women’s bantamweights in Mary Bueno Silva and Wu Yanan will also meet on the main card.

Let’s take a look at the UFC Vegas 51 main card and make our predictions.

Vicente Luque vs Belal Muhammad

Vicente Luque is the no. 5 ranked welterweight in the UFC. The 30-year-old from Westwood, New Jersey began his fighting career in Brazil where he appeared in promotions like Fight Club 300, Capital Fights, Shooto Brazil, Jungle Fight, and Spartan MMA. Luque was a contestant at The Ultimate Fighter 21 tournament where he lost to Hayder Hassan in the semifinals. After losing to Michael Graves in his UFC debut, Luque went on to win 10 of his next 11 bouts, losing only to Leon Edwards.

Luque is 21-7 with 11 knockouts and 8 submission wins. He stands 5-11 tall with a reach of 75 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance.

Belal Muhammad is the no. 6 ranked welterweight in the UFC. The 33-year-old from Chicago, Illinois previously fought under Hoosier Fight Club, Bellator, and Titan FC. He won the Titan FC welterweight title at Titan FC 38 and then joined the UFC. Muhammad split his first two UFC bouts then was knocked out by Luque at UFC 205. Since then, he’s won 10 of 12 bouts with one draw. He is coming off a unanimous decision win over Stephen Thompson.

Muhammad is 20-3 with four knockouts and one submission win. He stands 5-11 tall with a reach of 72 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance.

Since losing to Luque in their first bout, Muhammad is 10-1 with one draw. During that span, he’s shown an improved striking game that he mixes well with his strong wrestling game. In his fight with Demian Maia, he also showed that he could defend takedowns, stuffing 20 of 21 attempts from Maia. Against Wonderboy, Muhammad completed seven of nine takedowns so he’s been impressive on both sides as of late.

Meanwhile, Luque is 10-2 since their first bout and is currently riding a four-bout winning streak, finishing Niko Price, Randy Brown, Tyron Woodley, and Michael Chiesa. Luque has a diverse fighting style that makes him a tough read for his opponents. His striking was already good and it’s now even improved. On the ground, he is also very dangerous, especially with the D’Arce choke.

Both men have improved from their first meeting. No question that Muhammad will fare much better here. However, Luque will still be too much for him. Both men will try to fight on the feet but the longer this fight goes, it’s going to go to the ground and when it does, look for Luque find an opening, and lock in a submission.

Prediction: Vicente Luque

Caio Borralho vs Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

Caio Borralho is a former Future MMA middleweight champion and one of the Top 10 Brazilian MMA Prospects today. The 29-year-old from San Luis, Maranhao, Brazil is coming off back-to-back wins at the Contender Series. Last September 28, 2021, he defeated former Cage Fury champion Aaron Jeffrey via decision, and then 21 days later, Borralho knocked out Jessie Murray to earn his UFC contract.

Borralho has a record of 10-1 four knockouts and three submission victories. He stands 5-10 tall with a reach of 75 inches and is a southpaw fighter.

Gadzhi Omargadzhiev fought under promotions like Oplot Challenge, Voronezh MMA Federation, Counterattack 9, Fight Club Promotion, ArcticNorFights, and Golden Team Championships before heading to the UFC to appear in the Contender Series. Last October 26, 2021, Omargadzhiev submitted Jansey Silva via kneebar to earn his UFC contract. Like Borralho, he will be making his UFC debut in this event.

Omagadzhiev is undefeated at 13-0 with eight knockouts and three submission wins. He stands 6-1 tall with a reach of 71 inches and is a switch hitter.

These two fighters have plenty of similarities. They have the same amount of fighting experience, have fought the same level of competition, and they love to gain top position and beat foes with a heavy ground and pound attack.

Those said I think this fight will go down to who can wrestle better. No doubt, Omargadzhiev is the more technical wrestler but Borralho is the stronger man between the two. That strength should give him the edge in grappling exchanges and in a battle that could be fought along the fence.

I think this will be as close as the oddsmakers are calling it and I won’t blame you if you go with the favorite. However, I think that Borralho is more active and that should propel him to control the latter stages of the fight.

Prediction: Caio Borralho

Miguel Baeza vs Andre Fialho

Miguel Baeza began his career with a 6-0 record in promotions like Fight Time, Titan FC, and XFN. Baeza then joined the Contender Series in 2018 where he defeated Victor Reyna via unanimous decision to earn his UFC contract. He won his first three UFC assignments, all via stoppage but has since lost back-to-back fights against Santiago Ponzinibbio and Khaos Williams.

Baeza is 10-2 with seven knockouts and one submission win. He is an orthodox fighter who stands 6-2 tall with a reach of 74 inches.

Andre Fialho is a veteran of Bellator MMA who also fought for promotions like Invictus Pro MMA, International Pro Combat, Cage Fighters, PFL, and UAE Warriors. The 28-year-old from Libson, Portugal joined the UFC this year and was immediately given a tough assignment against Michel Pereira. Fialho lost that bout via unanimous decision but after a good showing, he gets another chance to earn his first win against Baeza.

Fialho is 14-4 with 11 knockouts and one submission win. He is an orthodox fighter who is six feet tall and who has a reach of 74 inches.

Baeza entered the UFC with guns blazing, winning three straight bouts via finishes with his fluid kickboxing and good grappling. However, opponents began figuring out his kickboxing heavy attack and that resulted in back-to-back losses.

Fialho pushed a solid pace and displayed excellent Muay Thai skills during his loss in a short notice debut against Michel Pereira. Despite the defeat, he gave a good account of himself, considering the circumstances.

No question Fialho is a solid opponent but Baeza should be able to get past him with his low kicks, counter-punching, and underrated grappling. Sure, he’s been struggling as of late but against Fialho, Baeza should be able to put it all together in an impressive win.

Prediction: Miguel Baeza

Mayra Bueno Silva vs Wu Yanan

Mayra Bueno Silva is a former Batalha MMA women’s bantamweight champion who also fought for promotions like Delta Fight Club and Sidney Sibamba Fight in Brazil. The 30-year-old from Minas Gerais, Brazil joined the UFC in 2018 via the Contender Series where she defeated Mayana Souza via submission. She is just 2-2 with one draw in five UFC bouts and is coming off a loss against Manon Fiorot last October 16, 2021.

Silva is 7-2 with one knockout and five submission wins. She is 5-6 tall with a 66-inch reach and is an orthodox fighter.

Wu Yanan is a professional fighter since 2013, starting her MMA career with Chinese promotions like the Chinese Kung Fu Championships and WLF W.A.R.S. The 25-year-old from Liaoning, China joined the UFC in 2017 and has won once in four UFC bouts. Wu is coming off back-to-back losses against Mizuki Inoue and Joselyne Edwards.

Wu has a record of 12-4 with six knockouts and five submission wins. She is an orthodox fighter who stands 5-8 tall with a reach of 66 inches.

Silva is a dangerous Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist who possesses a nasty armbar that she can secure from the top or bottom position. On the feet, her kickboxing is above average and so is her wrestling. Overall, she’s proven herself as a high-level grappler in the UFC.

Meanwhile, Yu is primarily a striker who can put together a high-volume striking attack. However, we’ve seen her get outwrestled in previous bouts, and has yet to prove herself as a grappler. Those said, her path to victory should be a brawl and sprawl attack, with plenty of 1-2 punches down the middle.

But unless Silva cannot turn this into a wrestling match, I don’t see Wu winning. Silva dominated from the top position. The Brazilian might even pull guard and catch Wu’s arm for a submission.

Prediction: Mayra Bueno Silva

Pat Sabatini vs T.J. Laramie

Pat Sabatini is a former Cage Fury Fighting Championships featherweight champion with three successful title defenses. The 31-year-old from Briston, Pennsylvania is also a veteran of Ring of Combat, Dead Serious, and Victory FC. Sabatini joined the UFC in 2021 and is 3-0 inside the UFC Octagon. In his last bout, Sabatini defeated Tucker Lutz on November 20, 2021.

Sabatini has a record of 16-3 with two knockouts and 10 submission wins. He is 5-8 tall with a reach of 70 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance.

T.J. Laramie is a veteran of Pancrase, Hard Knocks, Triple X Cagefighting, TKO, and Prospect Fighting Championships. He joined the Contender Series in 2020 where he recorded a TKO win over Daniel Swain that earned him a UFC contract. Laramie made his UFC debut at UFC Fight Night 178 where he lost to Darrick Minner. He has not fought since that September 2020 bout.

The 24-year-old from Ontario, Canada has a record of 12-4 with seven knockouts and four submission wins. He is 5-6 tall with a reach of 66 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

Sabatini has very good kickboxing and he also has decent ground skills. The former CFFC champion works to advance his position on the mat and then works to get a submission

Laramie also operates well on the ground but has not yet really shown his full potential. Given his opponent’s skillset, Laramie’s best chance of winning is knocking out Sabatini with his okay punching power.

Sabatini’s wrestling and top control should be the key to winning this fight. He should be able to rack up enough control time to win this fight. I don’t think Laramie gets submitted here. However, he should spend most of the fight trying to defend himself and that’s not going to earn him points.

Prediction: Pat Sabatini

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