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The Utah Jazz and New Orleans Pelicans open the NBA’s bubble tournament in Orlando with the first NBA game since the season was suspended last March 13, 2020.
It’s interesting to note that the league suspended play prior to Utah’s March 13, 2020 game against the OKC Thunder after Rudy Gobert tested positive for the COVID-19 virus. Later, Donovan Mitchell was also found to be infected with the virus and that caused friction between the two. The Jazz say that rift is a thing of the past and they are looking to buck the absence of second-leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic who is out for the season due to injury.
Meanwhile, the Pelicans head to the bubble very much alive in the playoff race. New Orleans has gotten back in the playoff picture since #1 pick Zion Williamson returned to action after starting the season on the injured list. Behind a young core that is determined to put the team in the postseason, the Pelicans head to this match as the slight betting favorites against the Jazz.
Utah Jazz
The Utah Jazz restart their season with a record of 41-23 and in second place in the Northern Division. The Jazz are 4th in the Western Conference team standings and are just three games behind the 2nd seeded L.A. Clippers and only 1.5 games off the 3rd place Denver Nuggets. However, they are also just one game ahead of the OKC Thunder and the Houston Rockets.
Donovan Mitchell led the Jazz in scoring with 24.2 points per game. Jordan Clarkson is putting up 15.6 points per contest in Utah but will need to score more without Bogdanovic. Rudy Gobert is averaging 15.1 points while also leading the team in rebounding and blocked shots at 13.7 and 2.0, respectively. Joe Ingles leads the team in assists at 5.2 per contest while also scoring 9.8 points per game.
The Jazz rank 17th in scoring at 111.0 points per game this season. Utah is the 9th best defensive team in the NBA this year at 107.9 points per game allowed. They are the 26th best passing team in the league at 22.2 assists per game and are also ranked 13th in rebounding at 45.1 this term.
New Orleans Pelicans
The New Orleans Pelicans open the bubble tournament with a record of 28-36 and in 4th place in the Southwest Division. New Orleans is in 10th place in the Western Conference team standings and are one of three teams that are only 3.5 games behind the 8th seeded Memphis Grizzlies. With 8 games in the seeding games, the Pelicans have more than enough chances to catch up and make the playoffs. But they cannot afford a slow start.
Brandon Ingram had an All-Star season with 24.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 1.0 steals per game. Zion Williamson averaged 23.6 points and 6.8 rebounds in 19 games of action while Jrue Holiday put up 19.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game. Lonzo Ball also had a good year with 12.4 points and a team-high 7.0 assists while shooting 38.3% from behind the three-point arc.
The Pelicans were tied for 4th in scoring with an average of 116.2 points per game this season. However, they were only 27th in scoring defense at 117.0 points per game allowed. New Orleans was also the 4th best rebounding team in the league at 47.0 boards grabbed per contest and they were 3rd overall in passing with an average of 27.0 dimes per contest.
Who Wins?
The Jazz head to this game with a 5-5 SU record in their last 10 games this season. They were 4-1 SU in their last five games before the suspension of action and Utah was 6-0 SU in their last six games. Meanwhile, the Pelicans also enter the restart with a 5-5 SU in their last 10 assignments. New Orleans is 7-2 SU in their last nine Thursday games and 1-4 SU in their last five games against the Western Conference. Head to head, the Jazz have won seven out of the last 10 meetings between these two teams, including the last four.
The Jazz had a better overall season than the Pelicans but New Orleans have played much better since Zion returned to action. Utah will be without Bojan Bogdanovic for the entire bubble tournament and that’s 20 points per game they are missing. I expect both teams to be rusty, especially on defense and I think the better scoring team wins this. In this case, it’s New Orleans who has the likes of Ingram, Williamson, Holiday, and Redick on board and healthy. The Pelicans also need this game more than the Jazz so I expect them to come out with guns blazing.
Prediction: New Orleans Pelicans
Other Bets to Make
Utah is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Jazz are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games played against the Western Conference, and 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games against the Southwest Division. New Orleans is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games played this season but are 4-1 ATS in their last five games away from the Smoothie King Center. The Pelicans are also 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games played as the betting underdog. Head to head, the Jazz are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 meetings but the Pelicans have covered twice in the most recent three encounters.
Jazz
+1.5 (+100)
Pelicans
-1.5 (-120)
Odds from BetOnline as of 07/27/20
The Jazz head to the bubble without their second-leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic who is out of action after undergoing season-ending wrist surgery. Sure, Jordan Clarkson will help fill the void and Mike Conley should be back to 100%. However, 20.2 points per game are too much to lose for a team. I like the Pelicans to start their playoff push on a high note against the Jazz. Give me the Pelicans here to cover the spread.
Prediction: Pelicans -1.5
The total has gone under in six out of the last 10 games played by the Jazz. The over is 17-16 in Utah’s 33 games away from Salt Lake City this season. The total has gone over in 35 out of the 64 games played by New Orleans this season. The over is also 18-13-1 in the Pelicans’ 32 away games played this year and 4-1 in their last five games played against the Northwest Division. Head to head, the over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these two teams.
Over
221.5 (-110)
Under
221.5 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 07/27/20
Utah has the 2019 Defensive Player of the Year in Rudy Gobert but this team isn’t the defensive team that the Jazz have been in previous years although they still ranked 9th in scoring defense this season. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are a high-octane team that is 4th in the league in scoring and 4th from the bottom in scoring defense. These teams have combined to score an average of 257.33 points per game in their last three head to head meetings. With New Orleans’ penchant for high-scoring games, I like these teams to hit the over.
Prediction: Over 221.5
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