Utah Utes vs Texas Longhorns 12/31/19 NCAA Football Betting Odds and Pick

The 11th ranked Utah Utes take on the Texas Longhorns in the Valero Alamo Bowl on New Year’s Eve.

Utah had an 11-1 regular-season record plus an 8-1 conference mark and they headed to the Pac-12 championship game as favorites against the Oregon Ducks. But the Utes got humiliated on national television as the Ducks ended their fringe CFP hope with a 37-15 upset victory. Utah looks to redeem itself against a Texas Longhorns team which was never in playoff conversation but finished their regular season assignment with a 49-24 victory over Texas Tech.

Utah Seeking Redemption

The Utah Utes were one of the top teams in college football during the regular season and they had an opportunity to make their first playoff appearance. However, the team got crushed by the Oregon Ducks in the Pac-12 championship game and they are seeking redemption on New Year’s eve against Texas in the Alamo Bowl.

Tyler Huntley leads Utah in passing with 2,966 passing yards with 18 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Huntley also rushed for a total of 257 yards with five rushing touchdowns. Zack Moss had 1,359 rushing yards with 15 rushing touchdowns while Brant Kuithe has caught 31 passes for 572 yards and six touchdown grabs.

The Utes rank 65th in passing at 235.5 yards per contest and they are 29th in rushing at 207 yards on the ground per outing. Utah scored an average of 34 points per game and they are holding their opponents to an average of 13.2 points per game this season. However, that defense gave up 37 points against Oregon in the Pac-12 title game.

Falling Short of Expectations

The Texas Longhorns fell short of expectations after a successful 2018 season which saw them win 10 games for the first time in a decade. Texas was never in the conference battle nor the playoff discussion this year as they could only muster seven games. However, the Longhorns closed out their regular season campaign with a 49-24 win over Texas Tech to earn a spot in this year’s Alamo Bowl.

Sam Ehlinger led the Longhorns with 3,462 passing yards with 29 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Ehlinger also had six rushing touchdowns and 590 rushing yards. Keaontay Ingram had 745 rushing yards with six rushing touchdowns while Devin Duvernay has 103 grabs for 1,296 rushing yards with eight touchdown catches.

The Longhorns rank 19th in passing at 296.2 yards per game and they are 54th in the nation at 172 rushing yards per game. Texas is one of the better offensive teams this season at 34.2 points per game but they weren’t as good on defense at 28.9 points per game allowed. The Longhorns gave up an average of 24.2 points per game in their last two games played.

Who Wins?

Utah is 8-1 SU in their last nine games played. The Utes are 3-1 SU away from home, and 11-3 SU in their last 14 December games. Texas is 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. The Longhorns are 3-0 SU in their last three games at home, and 1-5 SU in their last six games against the Pacific 12 Division.

Utah was one of the better teams in College Football this season. However, their loss to the Oregon Ducks in the conference title game pushed them back to the Alamo Bowl. But if we take that game away, this is a team that has played solid football all season long and has the 6th best scoring defense during the regular season.

Texas finished a mediocre 7-5 in a tough Big 12 Conference but despite missing the playoffs, they can finish their season strong with a win over the Utes. Texas leans heavily on Sam Ehlinger and his passing game which produced 29 touchdowns. However, Ehlinger was also sacked 32 times this season, 8th most in College Football.

Utah is the much more superior team in this matchup. They have seniors playing at quarterback, running back and a couple of other key positions. After losing to Oregon, I don’t see them having a letdown here. Texas has won two straight bowl games but Utah is too much for them.

Prediction: Utah Utes

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Other Bets to Make

Utah is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Utes are 2-1 ATS on the road and 1-1 on a neutral venue this season. Texas is 5-5 ATS this season, 1-2 ATS at home and 2-1 ATS at a neutral site this year. Utah is 5-0 ATS in their last five games against an opponent from the Big 12 conference. Texas is 2-4 ATS in their last six games played and 1-5 ATS in their last six games after an ATS win.

Texas is 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Pac-12 conference. But Utah is 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine games as betting favorites. The seniors are playing their last game and while this isn’t the game they wish they ended their college careers with, it’s going to be redemption for them. Utah has more talent and experience here.

Prediction: Utah -7

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The under is 5-3-2 in the last 10 games played by Utah. The under is 2-0-1 in the Utes’ three road games played this season. The total has gone under in three out of the last four games played by Texas, with an average of 50.5 total points per game. The under is also 6-0 in the Longhorns’ last six December games.

Utah has one of the stingiest defenses in the nation and Ehlinger has been one of the most sacked quarterbacks this season. I think Texas struggled to move the ball here and the Utes have seen the total go under in five out of their last seven games against opponents with a winning record.

Prediction: Under 55

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