Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies 05/11/2022 NBA Preview and Pick

The Golden State Warriors look to close out their second-round series against the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday night at the FedEx Forum.

Golden State sent Memphis reeling with a 1-3 series deficit after a come-from-behind win in Game 4. The Grizzlies led for all but the last 45 seconds of the game as the Dubs stole victory from the jaws of defeat behind Steph Curry who scored 18 points in the final quarter.

The Grizzlies played without superstar guard Ja Morant who sat out the game with a knee injury. Morant was ruled out of Game 5 with a bone bruise on his right knee and could miss the remainder of the postseason. Memphis kept the Warriors at bay for most of Game 4 but without their closer, they sputtered in the final 45 seconds of the game and allowed the Dubs to steal the win.

Come-From-Behind-Win by Warriors

The Warriors trailed by seven after three quarters and were down by 12 with just over 10 minutes left in the game before coming from behind to steal the Game 4 win. Steph Curry finished with 32 points including 18 in the final quarter while Andrew Wiggins had a double-double with 17 points and 10 rebounds Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole struggled with only 14 points apiece while Otto Porter Jr. added 12.

Golden State’s offense has looked better in the postseason than during the regular season as they are shooting 49.8% from the field and 37.8% from deep in the playoffs as compared to 46.9% and 36.4% respectively during the regular season. The Dubs were 22-19 SU on the road during the regular season and also went 33-19 SU against Western Conference teams.

Grizzlies Looking to Stay Alive

After losing Game 4, the Grizzlies need to win the last three games of the series to advance to the Western Conference finals. That’s a tough task, given that only 4.8% of teams who have been down 1-3 in a best-of-seven series have come back to win it. But they have to take it one game at a time, beginning with Game 5 which will be played in front of their adoring fans.

Without Ja Morant in Game 4, it was Jaren Jackson Jr. who led Memphis with 21 points and 5 blocked shots. Tyus Jones had an excellent game subbing for Morant with his 19 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists. Meanwhile, Kyle Anderson contributed 17 points off the bench. Demond Bane needs to step up after taking only 8 shots and scoring only 8 points in Game 4. Dillon Brooks also struggled on 5-19 shooting with only 12 points.

Who Wins?

The Warriors have won three out of their last four meetings against the Grizzlies. Golden State has also won two out of the last three games played in Memphis.

Golden State is:

• 12-2 SU in their last 14 games played.

• 3-2 SU in their last five road games.

• 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Southwest Division.

• 15-5 SU in their last 20 games played in May.

Memphis is:

• 13-3 SU in their last 16 games played at home.

• 14-4 SU in their last 18 games against an opponent from the Pacific Division.

• 23-8 SU in their last 31 home games against Western Conference teams.

The Warriors won Game 4 despite leading the game for only 45 seconds. Memphis led for 47 minutes and 15 seconds before Steph Curry’s two free throws gave the Warriors the 94-93 lead which they never relinquished.

Golden State sputtered on offense before catching fire in the 4th period. After scoring 38 in the first half, the Dub went for 39 in the final quarter while outscoring the Grizzlies by 15 points in the final 10:12 of the game.

It was a sorry loss for Memphis who led wire to wire until the final minute of the game, only for the win to be stolen by the Warriors. Memphis played very well without Ja Morant and looked on their way to victory when they went up by 12 early in the fourth quarter. But when the Dubs made their run, the Grizzlies did not have their star to make big shots.

Morant is out again for Game 5 and could be out for the rest of the postseason with a bone bruise on his right knee. That’s very demoralizing news for the Grizzlies, who despite having a 20-5 record without Ja this season, have lost their last four without their main man.

I expect the Grizzlies to keep it close but all it takes is for one explosion from Steph Curry to end this series. It will be a hard-fought game with Memphis in a do-or-die situation. However, without their closer, the Dubs should be too much to handle down the stretch.

Prediction: Golden State Warriors

Warriors vs Grizzlies Game 5 Spread Betting Pick

The Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played against the Warriors. Memphis is also 5-0 ATS in their last five home games against Golden State.

The Warriors are:

• 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

• 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as betting favorites.

• 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as betting favorites.

• 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record.

• 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games versus. a team with a winning straight up record.

• 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight up win.

• 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against an opponent with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.

• 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games after an ATS loss.

• 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.

• 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as road favorites.

• 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600.

• 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Wednesday games.

• 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Conference Semifinals games.

• 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 day’s rest.

The Grizzlies are:

• 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games overall

• 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games against an opponent with a winning road record.

• 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog.

• 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against a team with a winning percentage better than .600.

• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

• 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games.

• 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up loss.

• 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games as an underdog.

• 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 36-17 ATS in their last 53 games playing on 1 day’s rest.

• 40-19-1 ATS in their last 60 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 6-3 ATS in their last nine games against an opponent from the Western Conference.

Golden State has been a mediocre ATS team this season at 45-42-4 ATS in 91 total games played this season. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies were the best ATS team in the NBA during the regular season and remain an impressive 58-33-1 ATS overall this season. They are 3-1 ATS against the Warriors in this series with the Game 3 blowout loss the only time they did not cover the betting spread.

No question, the Memphis offense is not the same without Morant. But if you watched Game 4, the offense still looked good as points came from various sources. Tyus Jones did one helluva job filling in for Morant while Kyle Anderson had a splendid game off the bench. If the same guys contribute in Game 5, it won’t be an easy win for the Warriors.

Sure, there’s a chance that the Grizzlies are discouraged after a tough Game 4 loss. But knowing how resilient this team was during the regular season, there’s a good chance they give another good account of themselves. I think we’ll have another close game and the Grizzlies will feed off their home crowd. I’m not sure if they will win this game outright but I like them to cover the spread again in this one.

Prediction: Grizzlies +4

Warriors vs Grizzlies Game 5 Total Betting Pick

The total has gone under in 10 out of the last 14 games played between these two teams. The under is also 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Memphis.

Warriors Over/Under Trends:

• Over is 10-3 in the Warriors’ last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

• Over is 6-2 in the Warriors’ last 8 games following a straight up win.

• Over is 5-2-1 in the Warriors’ last 8 Conference Semifinals games.

• Over is 7-3 in the Warriors’ last 10 games played overall.

• Over is 7-3 in the Warriors’ last 10 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Over is 7-3 in the Warriors’ last 10 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Over is 7-3 in the Warriors’ last 10 games as a favorite.

• Over is 7-3 in the Warriors’ last 10 playoff games as a favorite.

• Over is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last five games as road favorites.

• Over is 13-6-1 in the Warriors’ last 20 games after an ATS loss.

• Over is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last five road games overall.

• Under is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last five games when playing on one-day rest.

• Under is 7-2 in their last nine Wednesday games.

• Under is 18-8 in their last 26 games against an opponent with a winning straight up record.

Grizzlies Over/Under Trends:

• Over is 13-3 in the Grizzlies’ last 16 playoff games as an underdog.

• Over is 4-1 in the Grizzlies’ last 5 games against a team with a winning percentage of above .600.

• Over is 15-5-1 in the Grizzlies’ last 21 home games versus an opponent with a winning road record.

• Over is 5-2 in the Grizzlies’ last 7 games following an ATS win.

• Over is 10-4 in the Grizzlies’ last 14 games as an underdog.

• Over is 5-2 in the Grizzlies’ last 7 games as a home underdog.

• Over is 7-2 in the Grizzlies’ last nine games played in May.

• Over is 4-2 in the Grizzlies’ last six Wednesday games.

• Under is 4-0 in the Grizzlies’ last 4 games following a straight up loss.

• Under is 8-3 in the Grizzlies’ last 11 Conference Semifinals games.

• Under is 5-2 in the Grizzlies’ last 7 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Under is 5-2 in the Grizzlies’ last 7 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

The over/under has been hard to decipher in this game. These teams scored a combined 254 points in Game 3 only to reach a total of 199 in Game 4. In Game 1, the total was 233 while in Game 2, it was only 207. However, I like the over in this one.

This is the lowest total in the series and the reason behind that is Ja Morant’s absence. Memphis played a good Game 4 and they scored only 98 points. Given that their backs are against the proverbial wall, I expect more pressure on Memphis in this game and that’s going to lead to jittery hands.

Golden State was the second-best defensive team in the NBA during the regular season and they are only giving up 105.3 points per game in the current playoffs. The Dubs have been here before and they know how to close out a series very well, especially with their opponent reeling and undermanned. Defense will win it for the Warriors.

Prediction: Under 218.5

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