Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics Game 3 2022 NBA Finals Odds and Prediction

The Warriors and Celtics head to the TD Garden to play Game 3 of the 2022 NBA Finals.

Golden State answered with a dominant Game 2 win after blowing a 15-point third-quarter lead in Game 1. Steph Curry set the tone with a solid first-half effort to match Jayson Tatum who put up 21 in the first half of Game 2.

The Dubs outscored the Celtics 35-14 in the third quarter to turn a 2-point halftime lead into a 23-point advantage to open the final quarter. There was no comeback this time around for the Celtics and the Warriors went on to win 107-88 to tie the series at 1-1.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors made sure there would be no Boston rally in Game 2. Golden State once again exploded in the third quarter but this time it was bigger as they turned a 2-point halftime lead into a 23-point cushion to start the 4th quarter. The Golden State defense held Boston to only four made baskets in the third quarter and 37.5% FG shooting for the whole game.

Steph Curry had another big game with 29 points but it was Jordan Poole’s strong game that helped Golden State pull away in the third. Poole finished with 17 points with five three-point makes as the Warriors evened the series and avoided a 2-0 series deficit which would have been disastrous.

Boston Celtics

The Celtics committed 19 turnovers in Game 2 and lost for the fifth consecutive game when committing 16 or more turnovers in the playoffs. Boston is 13-2 in playoff games where they have committed fewer than 16 so turnovers could be a key to winning or losing this game for them. Boston also shot 37.5% from the field with four starters combining to shoot only 8-26 from the field.

Jayson Tatum was the only starter who played well for Boston. He bounced back from a 3-17 shooting night in Game 1 to put up 28 in Game 2. However, only seven of those points were scored in the second half when the Dubs broke the game wide open. The Celtics have not lost two in a row in the playoffs.

Who Wins?

The Warriors are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played against the Celtics. Boston has won two out of their last three home games against Golden State.

The Warriors are:

• 15-5 SU in their last 20 games played.

• 25-23 SU in 48 road games played this season.

• 10-5 SU in their last 15 games played in June

• 8-7 SU in their last 15 road games against Eastern Conference teams.

The Celtics are:

• 4-2 SU in their last six games played.

• 13-6 SU in their last 19 games played at home.

• 8-1 SU in their last nine games against the Western Conference.

• 10-5 SU in their last 15 home games against Western Conference teams.

• 15-6 SU in 21 games as betting favorites against teams from the West.

Boston is coming off a 107-88 loss in Game 2, only the Celtics’ third loss in 11 road games played in the current postseason. Despite that defeat, the Celtics got what they wanted in the first two games of the 2022 NBA Finals, and that is a split that would give them the home-court advantage in the series. Now they must take care of it.

Jayson Tatum bounced back from a 3-17 shooting performance with a 28-point performance in Game 2. However, 21 of those points came in the first half when Boston battled toe-to-toe with Golden State and was just down by two points at the end of two-quarters of play. However, Jaylen Brown shot just 5-17 for 17 points while Al Horford and Marcus Smart each scored just two points.

Meanwhile, the Warriors’ offense got going behind Steph Curry and Jordan Poole. Curry scored 29 while Poole added 17 but it was Golden State’s defense that held Boston to 37.5% field goal shooting and only 14 points in the third quarter. The Dubs also forced the Warriors to 18 turnovers which led to 33 points off turnovers.

The Dubs are listing Gary Payton II, Andre Iguodala, and Otto Porter Jr. as questionable but more than the three, it could be the absence or presence of Robert Williams III that will make or break the Celtics. Williams gives Boston a strong defensive presence and decent offense and he has done so even when he was playing below 100% strength. But if he misses this game, that will be another story.

Boston has not lost back-to-back games in the playoffs. They have always bounced back strong after a playoff defeat. This is a team that knows how to make adjustments and given the long rest in between games, I trust Ime Udoka has made the needed moves to win Game 3.

Game 3 could very well be the most important game of the series and both teams should come in well-prepared. That said, Boston still has the advantage in size, physicality, and manpower. No question, the Splash Brothers plus Jordan Poole are an explosive trio but when the Celtics get going, it’s more than three players that kill you. I expect them to do that at home in Game 3.

Prediction: Boston Celtics

Warriors vs Celtics Spread Prediction

Golden State is 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games played against the Celtics. The Dubs are also 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games played against the Celtics.

The Warriors are:

• 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

• 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.

• 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.

• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600.

• 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a winning straight up record.

• 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.

• 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.

• 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Wednesday games.

• 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 NBA Championship games.

• 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record.

• 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.

The Celtics are:

• 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games overall.

• 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.

• 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest.

• 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss.

• 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.

• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

• 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS loss.

• 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Wednesday games.

• 11-4 ATS in their last 15 NBA Championship games.

• 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 38-18-2 ATS in their last 58 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Give credit to the Dubs for bouncing back with a strong Game 2 performance anchored on their defense. However, it’s hard to imagine Horford, Smart, and Timelord limited to just two points each. Likewise, Jaylen Brown has bounced back strong after scoring less than 20 points in a playoff game.

Look for Boston to limit their turnovers while tightening the loose ends on defense. With the Boston supporting cast playing better, they should be able to score more than enough points to beat the Warriors this time around. Any spread below five points, I will give to Boston who has not won a playoff game by fewer than 4 points.

Predictions: Celtics -3.5

Warriors vs Celtics Over/Under Predictions

The total has gone under in 20 out of the last 28 meetings between these two teams. The under is also 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Boston.

Boston Celtics over/under trends:

• Over is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 games played overall.

• Over is 6-2 in the Warriors’ last 8 road games.

• Over is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600.

• Over is 12-4 in the Warriors’ last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

• Over is 10-4 in the Warriors’ last 14 games following a straight up win.

• Over is 5-2-1 in the Warriors’ last 8 playoff games as an underdog.

• Over is 7-3 in the Warriors’ last 10 games following an ATS win.

• Over is 11-5 in the Warriors’ last 16 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Over is 11-5 in the Warriors’ last 16 games as a road underdog.

• Over is 11-5 in the Warriors’ last 16 NBA Championship games.

• Under is 11-2 in the Warriors’ last 13 against a team with a winning straight up record.

• Under is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 games as an underdog.

• Under is 6-2 in the Warriors’ last 8 games playing on 2 days rest.

• Under is 8-3 in the Warriors’ last 11 Wednesday games.

Boston Celtics over/under trends:

• Under is 4-2 in the Celtics’ last seven games played overall.

• Under is 6-1 in the Celtics’ last 7 NBA Championship games.

• Under is 6-1 in the Celtics’ last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.

• Under is 5-1 in the Celtics’ last 6 games following an ATS loss.

• Under is 4-1 in the Celtics’ last 5 Wednesday games.

• Under is 10-3 in the Celtics’ last 13 versus a team with a winning straight up record.

• Under is 18-7-1 in the Celtics’ last 26 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.

• Under is 7-3 in the Celtics’ last 10 games as a favorite.

• Under is 7-3 in the Celtics’ last 10 playoff games as a favorite.

• Under is 4-1 in the Celtics’ last five games played on a Wednesday.

Make no mistake, these are two explosive scoring teams that can light up the scoreboard in a hurry. However, they are also the 3rd and 7th best defensive teams in the playoffs and are allowing a combined 210.2 points per game in the postseason.

I expect the Celtics to try and put the clamps on Curry as it was Steph who set the pace for Games 1 and 2. With Boston slowing down Curry, the Golden State offense will be limited which means that even if Brown, Horford, and Smart have big games, this will still be a low-scoring contest.

Klay Thompson has yet to find his range and I don’t expect him to catch fire at the TD Garden. Jordan Poole has not been consistent enough to be trusted in the Finals. I think these teams will hit the under in this defensive contest.

Prediction: Under 212.5

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