MENU
The slumping Golden State Warriors travel to the FedExForum on Monday night to take on the streaking Memphis Grizzlies.
Golden State has dropped four out of its last five games played as Steph Curry is out of action with an injury. The Dubs are coming off a road loss to the Hawks and will be playing their fifth consecutive game away from home and doing so in back-to-back nights. The Warriors have fallen 3.5 games behind the Grizzlies in the race for the West’s 2nd seed with less than 10 games left in their regular season.
Memphis continues to roll even without Ja Morant who is out for two weeks. The Grizzlies are 16-2 SU without Ja this season and in their last game, they mauled the defending champions, Milwaukee Bucks, by 25 points. Memphis has won eight out of its last 10 games played and has won four in a row, including wins over Brooklyn and Milwaukee.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors got outdueled by the Atlanta Hawks 121-110 for their 4th loss in five games last Friday. Klay Thompson had a huge game with 37 points on 9-16 three-point shooting while Jordan Poole added 24 points. However, the other three Warriors starters combined for only 17 points, and Gary Payton II was the only other player in double-digit scoring with 14 off the bench.
Golden State got outscored 56-48 in points in the paint against the Hawks while giving up four more personal fouls and six more free throw attempts. The Dubs also turned the ball over four more times as the Hawks had 11 steals versus Golden State’s 4.
Golden State ranks 13th in the league in scoring at 111.0 points per game this season. They are tied for 7th in rebounding at 45.6 boards grabbed per contest and are 5th in passing at 27.1 assists per game. The Warriors are 4th in scoring defense at 105.2 points per game allowed.
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies won four the fourth time last Saturday as they beat the Bucks 127-102 to improve to 4-0 in this current homestand. Memphis saw De’Anthony Melton score 24 points and Desmond Bane 20 points. Dillon Brooks added 19 points while Jaren Jackson also scored 16 for Memphis which saw a total of 12 players score at least two points.
They shot 48% from the field against the Bucks while outrebounding the Bucks 54-46 and having a 30-19 advantage in assists. The Grizzlies also had 10 steals and 9 blocks and outscored the Bucks 66-50 in the paint.
Memphis is third in the league in scoring at 115.3 points per game. They are the top-rebounding team in the NBA at 49.5 boards grabbed per contest and 6th in passing at 25.7 assists per game. The Grizzlies are 12th in scoring defense at 109.3 points per game conceded this campaign.
Who Wins?
Golden State is 1-4 SU in their last five games played. The Dubs are 2-3 ATS in their last five games played on the road, 28-17 SU in 45 games against the Western Conference, and 11-11 SU in 22 road games against their conference rivals.
Memphis is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played. The Grizzlies are 5-0 SU in their last five home games, 32-14 SU in 46 games against the Western Conference, and 17-6 SU in 23 home games against their Western Conference rivals.
Head to head, the Grizzlies have won six out of their last 10 meetings against Golden State, including two out of the last three.
Both teams are without their top scorers in Steph Curry for the Warriors and Ja Morant for the Grizzlies. But while the Warriors have been 1-4 SU in five games since Steph got hurt, the Grizzlies are 16-2 SU in 18 games without Ja this season.
Golden State lost to the Hawks last Friday and plays the Wizards in Washington on Sunday before heading to Memphis for this Monday game. Memphis meanwhile blew out a complete Milwaukee Bucks team last Saturday and are well-rested and playing at home where they are 27-10 SU this season.
Memphis is rolling even without Ja while the Dubs are struggling without Steph. I’m going with the Grizzlies to beat the Warriors here.
Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies
Other Bets to Make
The Warriors are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played. Golden State is 3-2 ATS in their last five games played on the road, 20-22-3 ATS against Western Conference teams this season, 10-11-1 ATS on the road against Western Conference teams this season, 1-4 ATS in their last five games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games against an opponent with a winning home record.
However, the Dubs are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, and 37-17-4 in their last 58 Monday games.
The Grizzlies are 39-17 ATS in their last 56 games played, 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games when playing on one-day rest, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Monday games, 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against an opponent with a winning road record, 6-0 ATS in their last six home games against an opponent with a winning road record, 30-16 ATS in their 46 games against Western Conference teams this season, 15-8 ATS in their last 23 games against rivals from the Western Conference, and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games.
Warriors
+8.5 (-110)
Grizzlies
-8.5 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 03/22/2022
The Grizzlies are the best ATS team in the NBA with a cover rate of 65.3% this season. At home, they are 24-13 ATS or a cover rate of 64.9% and an average margin of victory of 9.0 points per game.
The Warriors meanwhile are just 16-18-2 ATS on the road this season or a cover rate of just 47.1%. Since the injury to Steph Curry, Golden State has lost four out of their last five games and are just 1-4 ATS during that span.
Sure, the Grizzlies will be without superstar Ja Morant, but remember that the Grizzlies have an even better record without Morant this season. Not that Morant isn’t that important to them but at 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS without its main man, this team is better than what most think.
Between a Warriors team without Steph Curry and a Grizzlies team without Morant, the stats would point to the Grizzlies who have been the biggest surprise in the league this season.
Prediction: Grizzlies -8.5
The total has gone over in 9 out of the last 14 games played by the Warriors, with one push. The over is also 3-2 in their last five games played on the road, 12-10 in their last 22 games against the Western Conference, 7-1 in their last eight road games against an opponent with a winning home record, 4-1 in their last five road games against an opponent with a winning percentage at the home of better than .600, and 7-2-1 in their last 10 games on the road.
The total has gone over in 38 out of Memphis 75 games played this season with four games ending in a push. The over is 3-1-1 in their last five home games, 12-3-1 in their last 16 games against an opponent with a winning road record, 3-1-1 in their last five games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 7-3 in their last 10 games played when playing on one day rest, and 5-2 in their last seven home games as betting favorites against an opponent with a winning road record.
Over
225 (-110)
Under
225 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 03/22/2022
The Grizzlies are the 9th best OVER team in the NBA this season and are the third highest-scoring team in the league at 115.3 points per game. They have put up at least 122 points in each of their last four games played and have scored at least 130 points in half of their last six games played.
The Warriors meanwhile rank first in the NBA with an OVER record of 11-4 or 73% when playing as road underdogs. The Dubs have conceded at least 110 points in four out of their last six games including 121 against the Atlanta Hawks the last time out.
These teams combined to score 224 points in their last meeting on January 22 which Memphis won at home. Sure, you’d think the scoring would taper off without Curry and Ja playing but Memphis has the best offensive rating in the league when playing without Morant. The Warriors meanwhile have scored an average of 114 points per game in their last two games even without Steph.
Both teams are capable offensive machines. 225 may be too low a total for these two teams.
Prediction: Over 225
Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks 04/19/2023 NBA Odds and Prediction
New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers 04/17/2023 MLB Preview and Prediction
Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees 04/14/2023 MLB Preview and Prediction
OKC Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans 04/12/2023 NBA Play-in Tournament Odds and Prediction
