MENU
The Golden State Warriors visit the Houston Rockets at the Toyota Center on Monday night.
This is the third meeting between these two teams this season. Golden State has won the first two, beating Houston 120-107 on November 7th and 105-103 last January 21, behind a buzzer-beater from Steph Curry.
Golden State enters this game with the second-best record in the NBA at 37-13 SU on the season. The Dubs at +450 also have the second-best odds to win the 2022 NBA title. Golden State has won five straight games and is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played. The Dubs defeated the title favorites Brooklyn Nets 110-106 in their last game played.
The Rockets are at the bottom of the Western Conference and have the third-worst record in the NBA. Houston is 14-35 SU on the season and they have lost three in a row heading to this contest. Houston is 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played and are coming off a fifteen-point loss to Portland 125-110 at home.
Golden State Warriors
Golden State took down the Kevin Durant and James Harden-less Brooklyn Nets on Saturday night 110-106. Kyrie Irving tried to carry the flag for the Nets but Steph Curry and Klay Thompson took turns in making big shots for the Warriors. All-Star starter Andrew Wiggins scored 24 points and grabbed eight rebounds while Jordan Poole added 17 points and six assists off the bench.
The Dubs rank 12th in the league in scoring at 110.2 points per game this season. Golden State is also 3rd overall in rebounding at 46.7 boards grabbed per contest and is 2nd in passing at 27.6 assists per game. The Warriors are the top defensive team in the NBA this season at 102.6 points per game allowed this season.
Houston Rockets
The Rockets have dropped three in a row heading to this home game. One of those losses was against the Warriors last January 21 when Steph Curry hit the first buzzer-beater of his NBA career to put the Rockets away 105-103. In their last game, Portland beat Houston 125-110. Garrison Matthews and Christian Wood each scored 21 points for the Rockets while Jalen Green and KJ Martin each scored 17 points.
Houston ranks 18th in the league in scoring at 108.3 points per game this season. The Rockets are 7th in rebounding at 43.0 boards grabbed per contest and they are also 23rd in passing at 22.9 assists per game. The Rockets have the league’s worst scoring defense at 116.8 points per game allowed this season.
Who Wins?
The Warriors are 6-1 SU in their last seven games played. Golden State is 13-9 SU in 22 road games played this season, and 4-1 SU in their last five games against the Western Conference.
The Rockets are 4-15 SU in their last 19 games played. Houston is 7-15 SU in 22 home games played this season, and 2-18 SU in their last 20 games against an opponent from the Pacific Division.
Head to head, Golden State Warriors are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played against the Houston Rockets.
Golden State is slowly returning to full strength and Klay Thompson is getting back in the groove as he’s scored at least 20 in two of the Warriors’ last four wins. The Dubs are a top 12 scoring team in the NBA while the Rockets have the worst scoring defense in the league this season. That’s not even counting that the Warriors have the league’s best-scoring defense.
I expect the Splash Brothers to rain three-pointers on a helpless Houston team. This could go ugly in a hurry with the Golden State offense too much for the Rockets defense to handle. Give me the Warriors in a blowout win.
Prediction: Warriors -600
Other Bets to Make
Golden State is 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games played on the road, 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games played when playing on one-day rest, 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their previous game, 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up win, 1-4 ATS in their last five games against an opponent with a winning percentage below .400, 1-4 ATS in their last five games against an opponent with a losing straight up record, and 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game.
Houston is 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games played. The Rockets are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games played at home, 1-4 ATS in their last five Monday games, 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games against an opponent with a winning road record, 10-25 ATS in their last 35 games after a double-digit home loss, 19-47 ATS in their last 66 games after a straight-up loss of more than 10 points, 7-19 ATS in their last 26 Monday games, and 14-40 ATS in their last 54 home games.
Warriors
-10.5 (-112)
Rockets
+10.5 (-108)
Odds from BetOnline as of 01/31/2022
While the Warriors have been winning, they haven’t been too concerned about covering the spread. The Dubs are 27-20-3 ATS in their 50 games played this season and just 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10 games played. Golden State defeated Houston in their first two meetings of the season but they allowed the Rockets to cover the spread in both games.
Houston isn’t too bad against the spread as they are 21-27-1 ATS in 49 games played this season and 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played. Although the Warriors have beaten them eight times in their last 10 head-to-head meetings, the Rockets have been outscored by an average of 4.6 points per game during that stretch.
I don’t think that the Warriors will need another buzzer-beater to beat the Rockets here. But laying 11 points may be too large for a Warriors team that will still have to play the next day in San Antonio. Meanwhile, the Rockets take Tuesday off so they can play their hearts out here. It should be an easy win for the Warriors but likely not the blowout win that the oddsmakers are predicting. I’ll take the plus points.
Prediction: Rockets +10.5
The total has gone under in 30 out of the Warriors 50 games played this season with two games ending in a push. The under is 13-9 in their 22 road games played this season, 5-1 in their last six road games against an opponent with a home winning percentage below .400, 6-2 in their last eight games against an opponent with a losing straight up record, 21-8 in their last 29 games after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game, 9-4 in their last 13 Monday games, and 41-19 in their last 60 games after an ATS loss.
The total has gone over in 14 out of the last 20 games played by the Rockets. The over is 11-3 in their last 14 games against the Western Conference, 15-4 in their last 19 games after a straight-up loss, 13-4 in their last 17 games after an ATS loss, 20-8 after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game, 18-8 after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game, and 15-7 in their last 22 games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game.
Over
228.5 (-113)
Under
228.5 (-107)
Odds from BetOnline as of 01/31/2022
While I don’t trust the Warriors in covering the spread, I trust them in getting scores below the totals. The Dubs have an under record of 30-18-2 this season, including 13-9 on the road. They have the league’s best scoring defense at only 102.0 points per game allowed. They have gone below 230 points four times in their last five games played.
The Rockets are the worst defensive team in the league but I don’t expect the Warriors to display the full arsenal with a game still to be played on Tuesday. Houston is also not a very good scoring team and is just 18th in the scoring department this season.
The Warriors and Rockets have combined to score 227 points or less in each of their last three head-to-head meetings. The Warriors are a terrific scoring team but the Rockets aren’t good dancing partners.
Prediction: Under 228.5
Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks 04/19/2023 NBA Odds and Prediction
New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers 04/17/2023 MLB Preview and Prediction
Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees 04/14/2023 MLB Preview and Prediction
OKC Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans 04/12/2023 NBA Play-in Tournament Odds and Prediction
