Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles 11/14/2022 NFL Odds and Prediction

The Philadelphia Eagles return from their bye week on Monday night, looking to extend their undefeated record at home against the Washington Commanders.

Philadelphia is 8-0 SU after defeating the Houston Texans in Week 9. They are the only remaining unbeaten team in the league and have the NFL’s best record through Week 10. Meanwhile, Washington saw its three-game winning streak end last week with a 20-17 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The Commanders have dropped one game below the .500 mark at 4-5 SU.

These NFC East rivals met in Week 2 at FedExField with the Eagles beating the Commanders 24-8 while covering the 5.5-point betting spread. In that game, the Eagles recorded 9 sacks to shut down the Commanders’ offense.

Washington Commanders

The Commanders opened the season with a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. They proceeded to lose their next four games, with all losses coming by two possessions. Washington however, bounced back to win their next three assignments, beating the Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, and Indianapolis Colts before losing a close game to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 9.

Carson Wentz was banged up against the Vikings and has been sent to the injury reserve list. Taylor Heinicke will step in and start on Monday for Washington. Heinicke has completed 63.0% of his passes for 629 passing yards with 5 touchdowns and three interceptions.

Running back Brian Robinson Jr. has led the team in rushing in each of their last 5 games but has gone over 60 rushing yards just once during that span. Terry McLaurin has caught 38 passes for 609 receiving yards while Curtis Samuel has caught 45 passes for 455 yards. Washington is 22nd in passing offense and 22nd in rushing offense while scoring 17.7 points per game this season, 26th overall.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have been the biggest surprise of the 2022 NFL season as they have opened their campaign with 8 consecutive victories. Philadelphia has been the betting favorite in all 8 games and has covered the spread five times. Quarterback Jalen Hurts threw for 340 passing yards with 3 TDs during their Week 2 game against the Commanders which the Eagles won 24-8, scoring all of their points in the second quarter. DeVonta Smith had a career game in Week 2, catching a total of 169 yards.

Hurts has thrown for 2,042 passing yards with 12 touchdowns and only two interceptions this season. Miles Sanders leads the Eagles in rushing with 656 yards on 31 carries with 6 rush touchdowns scored this season. Meanwhile, A.J. Brown leads Philadelphia with 718 receiving yards on 43 catches with 6 TD grabs this season.

Behind Hurts and Brown, the Eagles rank second in the NFL in scoring at 28.2 points per game this season. They are also 9th in passing offense and 6th in rushing offense. Aside from their offense, the Philly define has been great this season, ranking third overall in the NFL. The Eagles’ pass defense is conceding only 177 passing yards per game while their rush defense is giving up 121 yards per contest. The Eagles are also 4th at only 16.9 points per game allowed this season.

Commanders vs Eagles SU Prediction

The Eagles are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played against the Commanders. Philadelphia is also 4-1 SU in their last 5 home games against Washington.

Washington Commanders SU trends:

• The Commanders are 3-5 SU in their last 8 games played.
• The Commanders are 2-2 SU in 4 road games played this season.
• The Commanders are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games played against the NFC East Division.

Philadelphia Eagles SU trends:

• The Eagles are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games played.
• The Eagles are 4-0 SU in their last four games played at home.
• The Eagles are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games played against the NFC.
• The Eagles are 6-3 U in their last 9 Monday home games.

Prior to last week’s loss against the Minnesota Vikings, the Commanders had silently put together a three-game winning streak despite their offensive struggles, thanks to a defense that has allowed not more than 21 points in their last 5 games played.

Washington went 3-2 SU and ATS during that stretch and though they lost the last time out, they put up a good a defensive effort against the Vikings. The Commanders sacked Kirk Cousins twice and intercepted the Vikings’ QB once while holding Dalvin Cook to 47 yards on 17 carries. However, their offense failed them again, scoring just 17 points and losing by a field goal.

Jalen Hurts threw for 340 yards and three touchdowns the last time these two teams met. The Eagles QB did most of his damage in the second quarter where they built a 24-0 lead on the strength of 3 TD passes. Hurts however were limited on the ground against Washington as he rushed for only 20 yards on 9 carries. He has not rushed for more than 27 yards in any of the Eagles’ last three games played.

Also in the first meeting between these two teams, wide receiver DeVonta Smith caught 8 passes for a career-high 169 receiving yards. Smith caught one of Hurts’ TD passes with the other two landing in the hands of AJ Brown and Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert. With the Eagles the last playing on November 3, they should be very well-rested and ready for the Commanders on Monday.

If Washington wants to win, they need to keep Hurts in check, not just on the ground but through the air as well. The defense has done its job for the Commanders but unless the offense scores a couple of touchdowns on Monday night, it’s going to be tough beating the Eagles.

The Eagles are undefeated at home at 4-0 SU and ATS. Philly’s winning margin in those games was at least 8 points with an average winning margin of 14 points. The extra week’s rest will even make this team look better on Monday night. The key to this game will be getting to a fast start like they did the first time out. Washington’s offense can’t keep up. If the Eagles race to an early lead, they should be able to win the game.

Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles

Commanders vs Eagles ATS Prediction

The Commanders are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games played against the Eagles. Washington is also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Philadelphia. The home team is also 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 head-to-head meetings between these two teams.

Washington Commanders ATS trends:

• The Commanders are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• The Commanders are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
• The Commanders are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Commanders are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.
• The Commanders are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS loss.
• The Commanders are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 versus the NFC East.
• The Commanders are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.
• The Commanders are 1-4-1 ATS against a team with a winning record.

Philadelphia Eagles ATS trends:

• The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
• The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
• The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
• The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight-up win.
• The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

Picking the Commanders at +11 is very tempting. Washington’s strengths are its defense and rushing attack. Their game is built to slow the pace of games and eat up plenty of clock. They were, however, unable to do so in their first game against the Eagles.

On the other side, it’s a significant risk to lay double-digit points, even if the Eagles are 8-0 SU this season and 4-0 SU and ATS at home. However, the Eagles are coming off their bye week and should be well-rested and ready to perform at a high level. Just like their first meeting, I expect the Eagles to start fast and build a big lead early on.

Prediction: Eagles -11

Commanders vs Eagles Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in three out of the last four games played between these two teams. The over is 6-2 in their last 8 meetings in Philadelphia.

Washington Commanders over/under trends:

• The under is 6-1 in the Commanders’ last 7 games overall.
• The under is 4-1 in the Commanders’ last 5 road games.
• The under is 4-1 in the Commanders’ last 5 games versus the NFC.
• The under is 4-1 in the Commanders’ last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record.
• The under is 16-5 in the Commanders’ last 21 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 22-8 in the Commanders’ last 30 games on grass.
• The under is 19-7 in the Commanders’ last 26 games versus a team with a winning record.
• The under is 5-0 in the Commanders’ last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• The under is 4-0 in the Commanders’ last 4 games following a straight-up loss.
• The under is 4-0 in the Commanders’ last 4 games against the NFC East.
• The over is 8-3 in the Commanders’ last 11 games in Week 10.
• The over is 5-0 in the Commanders’ last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

Philadelphia Eagles over/under trends:

• The over is 4-1 in the Eagles’ last 5 games overall.
• The over is 8-1 in the Eagles’ last 9 home games.
• The over is 4-1 in the Eagles’ last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• The under is 6-0 in the Eagles’ last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• The under is 8-1 in the Eagles’ last 9 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 5-1 in the Eagles’ last 6 Monday games.
• The under is 4-1 in the Eagles’ last 5 games in Week 10.
• The under is 16-5 in the Eagles’ last 21 games in November.
• The under is 8-3 in the Eagles’ last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

The Commanders don’t want to get into a shootout with the Eagles as they do not have the offense that can match the Eagles’ firepower, especially at the quarterback position. With their inability to match Philly’s pace, the Commanders will try to win by slowing the game down with their rushing attack.

Washington’s defense has looked good this season, especially in the last 5 weeks. Philly has been explosive on offense but in this game, they won’t need to flex all their offensive muscles to win. This one should be a low-scoring game.

Prediction: Under 43.5

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