Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears 10/13/2022 Odds and Prediction

The Washington Commanders visit the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field to open Week 6 on Thursday Night Football.

Both teams are struggling right now with Washington losing four in a row since winning in Week 1. Meanwhile, the Bears have dropped two in a row after opening the season with a 2-1 SU record.

The Commanders are at the bottom of the NFC East at 1-4 SU. The division is stacked right now with the Philadelphia Eagles at 5-0 SU and both the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants at 4-1 SU. They have scored just 90 points this season while allowing 128 points.

The Bears are 2-3 SU and are in third place in the NFC North Division. The Minnesota Vikings lead the division at 4-1 SU while the Green Bay Packers are second at 3-2 SU. Chicago has scored a total of 140 points this season but has conceded a total of 170 points.

Washington Commanders

Washington opened the season with a 28-22 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars but has since trended downwards, losing four in a row. Last Sunday, the Commanders had the ball on the 2-yard line but Carson Wentz threw two incompletions and then turned the ball over with an INT on third down. Wentz did however have his best passing game of the season with 359 yards.

Washington ranks 19th in total offense at just 341.6 yards per game. Wentz has completed 62.9% of his passes for 1,390 passing yards with 10 TDs and 6 INTs. His top target has been Terry McLaurin who has caught 19 passes for 326 yards and a score. Curtis Samuel has 32 catches for 281 yards with two TDs. Their rushing attack hasn’t been as effective, producing just 3.2 yards per carry. The Commanders will be facing a Chicago defense that is ranked 22nd in defense at 367.2 yards per game allowed.

Chicago Bears

The Bears looked impressive in Week 1 as they upset the San Francisco 49ers. They picked up a second win in Week 3, defeating the Houston Texans 23-20. Since then, they have dropped back-to-back games against the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings. Last weekend, they rallied from a 21-3 deficit to take a 22-21 lead with 9:26 left in the game. However, the Vikings were able to recover and score a touchdown with 2:26 left to steal the game.

Like Washington, Chicago has struggled on offense. They are just 31st in the NFL at 274.0 yards of offense per game, just ahead of the Carolina Panthers. Quarterback Justin Fields has completed 55.7% of his passes for 679 passing yards with three touchdowns and four interceptions. He has also rushed for 194 yards with one rushing TD but that hasn’t been enough to help the team with its offensive woes. Khalil Herbert is rushing 5.9 yards per carry on 56 attempts.

Who Wins?

The Commanders are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games played against the Bears. Washington is also 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played in Chicago.

Washington Commanders SU trends:

• The Commanders are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games played.

• The Commanders are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games played on the road.

• The Commanders are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games played against the NFC.

Chicago Bears SU trends:

• The Bears are 5-12 SU in their last 17 games played

• The Bears are 3-5 SU in their last 8 games played at home.

• The Bears are 0-5 SU in their last 5 October games.

The Commanders looked like they were going to end their three-game losing streak last Sunday in a back-and-forth game against the Tennessee Titans where they took a three-point lead on two occasions. However, Washington’s rally ended when quarterback Carson Wentz threw an interception at the Titans’ two-yard line with 13 seconds left in the game.

Despite that miscue which cost them the game, Wentz had a good performance as he threw for 359 yards with two TD passes, both to rookie third-round draft pick Dyami Brown. Although Wentz and the Commanders have displayed what they are capable of doing on offense, the team has not scored more than 17 points since week 2 and that has proved costly.

Give the Chicago Bears credit for battling back from a 21-3 deficit last weekend to take the lead against the Minnesota Vikings while playing on the road. However, the Bears left too much time for the Vikings to work with. After seemingly falling asleep after halftime, Minnesota woke up just in time to score the game-winning TD with 2:26 left in the game.

Although the Bears failed to pick up their first road win, they were close and look to be gaining confidence with each week. Offensively, Justin Fields has increased his passing yards output in each of his last four games played. His ability to make plays could be the difference for the Bears in winning this game.

There’s no question that the Bears look better but overall, the Commanders appear to have more on offense. Chicago is averaging less than 20 points per game and Fields has struggled to move the ball as they are the worst passing team in the NFL so far this season. The Bears are going to run the ball well but Washington has defended the pass well this season, holding their last three opponents to 80 or fewer rushing yards.

I think the Bears are going to make this a close game but in the end, Wentz should be able to redeem himself. He has more experience and better weapons around him.

Prediction: Washington’s Commanders

Washington vs Bears ATS Prediction

The Commanders are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played against the Bears. Washington is also 5-0 ATS in their last five games played in Chicago. The road team is also 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games played between these two teams.

Washington Commanders ATS trends:

• The Commanders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

• The Commanders are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.

• The Commanders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

• The Commanders are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• The Commanders are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight-up loss.

• The Commanders are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 against the NFC.

• The Commanders are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

• The Commanders are 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 6.

• The Commanders are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss.

• The Commanders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

• The Commanders are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in October.

Chicago Bears ATS trends:

• The Bears are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.

• The Bears are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.

• The Bears are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

• The Bears are 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight-up loss.

• The Bears are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following an ATS win.

• The Bears are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 Thursday games.

• The Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

• The Bears are 2-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

• The Bears are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games on grass.

• The Bears are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 vs. NFC.

• The Bears are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.

Washington should have won last week but Wentz turned from hero to goat with the late INT. Wentz has thrown a pick in four out of their five games played including 2 during their opening week win over the Jaguars. If he protects the ball better here, the Commanders should be in good shape as Wentz has a pair of elite receivers in McLaurin and Samuel.

Throw in the fact that the Bears gave up more than 300 yards in their previous game. So I expect Wentz and the secondary to have a better performance on Thursday. Chicago has also failed to cover in each of its last nine home games against Washington.

Prediction: Commanders +1

Washington vs Bears Over/Under Predictions

The total has gone over in each of the last four games played between the Commanders and Bears. The over is also 2-1 in the last three games played by these two teams in Chicago.

Washington Commanders over/under trends:

• Under is 5-2 in the Commanders’ last 7 games overall.

• Under is 11-5 in the Commanders’ last 16 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

• Under is 4-0 in the Commanders’ last 4 games following an ATS loss.

• Under is 4-0 in the Commanders’ last 4 games in Week 6.

• Under is 5-1 in the Commanders’ last 6 games following a straight-up loss.

• Under is 15-3 in the Commanders’ last 18 games in October.

• Under is 4-1 in the Commanders’ last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• Under is 4-1 in the Commanders’ last 5 versus the. NFC.

• Under is 20-7 in the Commanders’ last 27 games on grass.

• Over is 9-2 in the Commanders’ last 11 Thursday games.

• Over is 5-2 in the Commanders’ last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Chicago Bears over/under trends:

• Under is 7-3 in the Bears’ last 10 games played at home.

• Under is 10-2 in the Bears’ last 12 games in October.

• Under is 5-1 in the Bears’ last 6 games played against the NFC East Division.

• Under is 14-3 in the Bears’ last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

• Under is 4-1 in the Bears’ last 5 games on grass.

• Under is 20-6 in the Bears’ last 26 games following an ATS win.

• Under is 21-8 in the Bears’ last 29 home games.

• Under is 10-4 in the Bears’ last 14 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

• Under is 24-11 in the Bears’ last 35 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• Over is 4-1 in the Bears’ last 5 games following a straight-up loss.

Washington has two elite receivers and an experienced QB in Wentz. However, the Commanders have been inconsistent offensively with Wentz making multiple crucial mistakes. They are facing a Chicago offense that has even looked worse. Fields has been held to below 130 passing yards in three games this season and his season-best passing effort has been only 208 yards.

Washington is averaging just 18 points per game this season, including 18.5 points when playing away from home. The Bears are putting up 21 points per game at home but are just putting up 17.2 overall this season. Chicago likes to run the ball and that takes up so much time and usually leads to a low-scoring game.

Prediction: Under 37.5

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