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The New York Yankees and Atlanta Braves finish their current two-game series at Truist Park.
New York came to Atlanta after sweeping the Minnesota Twins in three games during their previous series. Meanwhile, the Braves swept the Baltimore Orioles 3-0 on the road over the weekend. Both teams carried respective 9-game winning streaks to Game 1 and it was New York who defeated Atlanta 5-1 on Tuesday to take the series opener.
New York Yankees
The Yankees are the hottest team in baseball having won their last 10 games, including a 5-1 road win over the Braves in Game 1 of this series New York is 73-52 on the season and in second place in the AL East, four games behind the Tampa Bay Rays. However, the Yankees are 2.5 games ahead of the Boston Red Sox for the top wild card spot in the American League.
New York will be going with Andrew Heaney in this game and he is 8-8 on the year with an ERA of 5.51 on the season and a WHIP of 1.276. Heaney has struggled to throw the ball at their opponent’s home field as he has an ERA of 5.70 when pitching on the road. He got the win in his last start, pitching for seven innings with one run and two hits allowed in a 5-2 win by the Yankees
Aaron Judge leads the Yankees with a batting average of .283 with 27 home runs and 65 RBI. Judge also has a terrific .299 BA on the road this season.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves entered this series with a nine-game winning streak that was snapped on Tuesday. Atlanta is 68-57 on the season and they are currently on top of the NL East, 4.5 games ahead of the second-place Philadelphia Phillies.
For Atlanta, it will be Charlie Morton who will start on top of the mound. Morton is 12-4 on the season with an ERA of 3.47 and a WHIP of 1.093. In his last start, Morton pitched six innings on the road against the Marlins last Wednesday and earned the win with two runs allowed on three hits with one walk and nine strikeouts as Atlanta won 11-9. He has a 5-2 record at home with an ERA of 3.81 and a WHIP of 1.123.
Freddie Freeman has been Atlanta’s main source of offense. He is batting .297 on the season and has hit 27 home runs and 70 RBI. Freeman has recorded at least one hit in eight out of his last nine games played.
Who Wins?
The Yankees are 21-5 in their last 26 games played. New York is 6-0 in their last six interleague games, 5-0 in their last five interleague games against a right-handed starter, 6-0 in their last six games against the NL East, 6-1 in their last seven road games against a right-handed starter, and 5-0 in their last five games against an opponent with a winning record.
The Braves are 20-6 in their last 26 games overall. Atlanta is 5-0 in their last five Tuesday games, 4-0 in their last Game 2 of a series, 4-1 in their last five interleague games, 4-1 in their last five games against the AL East, 20-6 in their last 26 games as betting favorites, and 4-1 in their last five games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Head to head, New York, is 14-6 in their last 20 games against Atlanta. The Yankees are also 8-2 in their last 10 road games against the Braves.
Both these teams entered Monday’s game with nine-game winning streaks each. New York Yankees may have taken the opener, but these two teams have been red hot in August.
New York is 8-4 with a +49 run differential this month while Atlanta is 16-4 with a run difference of +38. With both offenses firing from all cylinders right now, it’s going to be the team with the better starter who wins this.
Heaney has the better ERA in the second half of the season but overall, he still has an ERA north of five for the entire season and an ERA of 5.70 on the road.
Meanwhile, Morton has been cruising along with his ERA of 3.47 and a WHIP of 1.09. He should be able to keep his Yankees offense in check and get the win for the home team.
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
Other Bets To Make
The total has gone under in eight out of the last 10 games when the Yankees are underdogs. The under is 12-1 in New York’s last 13 interleague games against an opponent with a winning record, 4-1-1 in their last six interleague games as underdogs,11-4 in their last 15 games on the road against a right-handed starter, 18-7-1 in their last 16 games against 26 games against an opponent with a winning record, and 14-6 in their last 20 road games.
The total has gone under in four out of the last five games played by Atlanta. The Braves have seen the total go under in seven out of their last eight Tuesday games, 4-1 in their last five games as betting favorites, 4-0 in their last four games when the total is set between 9-10.5, and 4-1 in their last five games played on grass.
Head to head, the total has gone under in four out of the last five meetings between these two teams.
Over
9 (-113)
Under
9 (-107)
Odds from BetOnline as of 08/24/2021
Although their overall season numbers aren’t impressive, both starting pitchers have looked sharp in their recent outings. Heaney pitched seven innings against the Red Sox in his last start and allowed just one run. Meanwhile, Morton has conceded fewer than three runs in three out of his last four starts.
The Yankees and the Braves have been red hot on offense but the momentum of both starters should cool both teams down a bit. The total set here is very high at 9.5 and I think that good pitching will prevent the offenses from hitting that.
Prediction: Under 9
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